kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Thu, Jul 9
Sat, Jul 11
Forecast For

Friday, July 10

Updated Jul 10, 7:13 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 11:09 AM -> Jul 10, 8:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 10:09AM CDT until July 12 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 2:24 PM -> Jul 9, 10:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 2:24PM EDT until July 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 2:41 PM -> Jul 10, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 2:41PM EDT until July 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 2:43 PM -> Jul 10, 12:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 2:43PM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 6:09 PM -> Jul 10, 2:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 6:09PM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 9:33 PM -> Jul 10, 5:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 9:33PM EDT until July 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Jul 9, 9:43 PM -> Jul 10, 1:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 9 at 8:43PM CDT until July 10 at 12:45AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 9, 10:20 PM -> Jul 10, 1:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 9 at 9:20PM CDT until July 10 at 12:15AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 9, 10:26 PM -> Jul 10, 1:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 9 at 9:26PM CDT until July 10 at 12:30AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 10:34 PM -> Jul 10, 8:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 10:34PM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 9, 10:45 PM -> Jul 10, 1:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 9 at 9:45PM CDT until July 10 at 12:45AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 9, 11:29 PM -> Jul 10, 2:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 9 at 10:29PM CDT until July 10 at 1:30AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 9, 11:51 PM -> Jul 10, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 9 at 10:51PM CDT until July 10 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 9, 11:56 PM -> Jul 10, 1:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 9 at 10:56PM CDT until July 10 at 12:45AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 10, 12:21 AM -> Jul 10, 3:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 9 at 11:21PM CDT until July 10 at 2:30AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 10, 12:34 AM -> Jul 10, 1:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 9 at 11:34PM CDT until July 10 at 12:45AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 10, 12:41 AM -> Jul 10, 1:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 10 at 12:41AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jul 10, 12:41 AM -> Jul 10, 3:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 9 at 11:41PM CDT until July 10 at 2:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 10, 12:45 AM -> Jul 10, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 9 at 11:45PM CDT until July 10 at 5:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 10, 12:50 AM -> Jul 10, 1:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 9 at 11:50PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 10, 12:52 AM -> Jul 10, 1:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 9 at 11:52PM CDT until July 10 at 12:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 10, 12:52 AM -> Jul 10, 1:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 9 at 11:52PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 10, 1:15 AM -> Jul 10, 2:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 10 at 12:15AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 10, 1:22 AM -> Jul 10, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 10 at 12:22AM CDT until July 10 at 5:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jul 10, 1:24 AM -> Jul 10, 9:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 10 at 1:24AM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 10, 1:50 AM -> Jul 10, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 10 at 12:50AM CDT until July 10 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 10, 1:52 AM -> Jul 10, 2:02 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 10 at 12:52AM CDT until July 10 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 10, 2:09 AM -> Jul 10, 6:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 10 at 1:09AM CDT until July 10 at 5:15AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 10, 2:13 AM -> Jul 10, 5:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 10 at 1:13AM CDT until July 10 at 4:15AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 10, 3:22 AM -> Jul 10, 7:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 10 at 2:22AM CDT until July 10 at 6:15AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 10, 3:37 AM -> Jul 10, 7:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 10 at 2:37AM CDT until July 10 at 6:30AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 10, 3:40 AM -> Jul 10, 6:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 10 at 3:40AM EDT until July 10 at 6:45AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 10, 3:47 AM -> Jul 10, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 10 at 3:47AM EDT until July 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 10, 4:05 AM -> Jul 10, 4:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 10 at 3:05AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 10, 4:07 AM -> Jul 10, 8:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 10 at 3:07AM CDT until July 10 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 10, 4:59 AM -> Jul 10, 8:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 10 at 4:59AM EDT until July 10 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 10, 5:00 AM -> Jul 10, 8:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 10 at 5:00AM EDT until July 10 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 10, 5:00 AM -> Jul 10, 1:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 10 at 4:00AM CDT until July 12 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jul 10, 5:02 AM -> Jul 10, 1:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 10 at 5:02AM EDT until July 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Jul 10, 5:11 AM -> Jul 10, 5:21 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 10 at 4:11AM CDT until July 10 at 4:15AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 10, 5:48 AM -> Jul 10, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 10 at 4:48AM CDT until July 10 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 10, 6:11 AM -> Jul 10, 9:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 10 at 5:11AM CDT until July 10 at 8:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jul 10, 6:50 AM -> Jul 10, 5:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 10 at 6:50AM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Warning

Jul 10, 7:16 AM -> Jul 10, 8:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued July 10 at 7:16AM EDT until July 10 at 8:30AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 10, 7:27 AM -> Jul 10, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 10 at 7:27AM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Jul 10, 8:19 AM -> Jul 11, 7:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 10 at 7:19AM CDT until July 12 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jul 10, 11:25 AM -> Jul 11, 2:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 10 at 11:25AM EDT until July 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Jul 10, 2:30 PM -> Jul 11, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 10 at 2:30PM EDT until July 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 10, 2:41 PM -> Jul 11, 12:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 10 at 2:41PM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jul 10, 3:01 PM -> Jul 10, 11:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 10 at 3:01PM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Jul 10, 4:11 PM -> Jul 10, 4:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 10 at 4:11PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jul 10, 7:42 PM -> Jul 11, 1:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 10 at 6:42PM CDT until July 11 at 12:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Confidence
80%

Widespread Humid Rain Showers Move Across Kentucky

A tropical-like airmass with high moisture content will trigger multiple rounds of rain and embedded heavy downpours across the Commonwealth. While not a total washout for all, most regions will see measurable rainfall and persistent cloud cover, keeping temperatures slightly below mid-July norms.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in widespread cloud cover and rain occurrence; however, moderate disagreement remains regarding the exact northern extent of the rain and localized intensity bullseyes in the southern terrain.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Morning Rain Followed by Humid Afternoon
Rain
85°/ 72°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Frequent Showers and Overcast Skies
Rain
82°/ 71°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
A Gray and Damp Friday
Rain
83°/ 71°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Steady Rain for Bowling Green
Rain
82°/ 71°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Light Showers and Muggy Conditions
Rain
81°/ 72°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Rainy and Overcast on the Escarpment
Rain
80°/ 71°

Lake Cumberland

IMPACTFUL
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Significant Rain Likely Near the Lake
Rain
79°/ 70°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Mainly Cloudy with Isolated Showers
Rain
83°/ 72°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Intermittent Rain for Lexington
Rain
79°/ 71°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Showery and Cool for the Knobs
Rain
77°/ 70°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Cloudy with Afternoon Rain
Rain
79°/ 70°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Damp and Misty in the Valleys
Rain
77°/ 69°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

Localized training of rain cells, particularly along the southern terrain of the Cumberland Plateau and Coalfields, could lead to rainfall totals exceeding 2.5 inches, causing minor localized drainage flooding.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

A more aggressive push of dry mid-level air from the Great Lakes could shunt the moisture plume further south, leaving Northern Kentucky and the I-64 corridor with little more than a few sprinkles and overcast skies.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

Southern Terrain Enhancement

The NAM shows significantly higher rainfall totals (1.5"+) for the Southeast Coalfields and Lake Cumberland regions compared to the GFS and Euro (0.5"-0.7").

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

The NAM's higher resolution typically captures orographic lift and terrain-induced moisture convergence in the Appalachian foothills more accurately than the coarser global models.

Affected Regions
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDSLAKE CUMBERLAND

The Northern Moisture Cutoff

The NAM remains the dry outlier for Northern Kentucky, suggesting a sharp moisture gradient along the Ohio River, while the GFS and Euro insist on light measurable rain for the Cincinnati/Covington metro area.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

Global models generally handle the synoptic-scale moisture transport and the placement of the upper-level jet better than mesoscale models in a low-instability environment.

Affected Regions
NORTHERN KYLOUISVILLE METRO

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The atmosphere exhibits a deep moist-adiabatic lapse rate with no significant inversions. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s will create a very humid boundary layer.

Thermal Boundary

No strong surface front is present; a weak moisture boundary is stalled near the Ohio River.

Diurnal Trend

The diurnal curve will be heavily suppressed by 90-100% cloud cover, resulting in narrow temperature ranges (lows in the 70s, highs in the low 80s).

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No true frontal passage. Evidence of a weak surface trough is seen in a subtle wind shift from south-southeast to southwest by Friday afternoon.

Jet Stream Support

Modest lift is provided by the right-entrance region of a 100kt jet streak located over the Great Lakes.

Energy Status

Broad cyclonic flow with neutral-to-weak positive vorticity advection as multiple ripples of energy pivot through.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Deep saturation is present through 500mb across the south, while Northern KY faces a slight 'Virga' risk early in the day as mid-levels saturate.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be primarily 'Stratiform' (steady rain) with embedded convective pulses producing brief heavy rates.

Flooding Context

Ground is receptive, and rainfall rates should generally remain below 0.5 inches per hour, keeping flash flood risks minimal.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

Not applicable; summer tropical airmass.

Crystal Habit

Not applicable.

Road Impact

Wet roads will be the primary impact for commuters.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Crescent

20% Illumination
Moonrise
2:40 AM
Moonset
6:00 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:44 AM
Sunset
9:17 PM
Civil Dawn
6:13 AM
Civil Dusk
9:47 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:36 AM
Sunset
9:13 PM
Civil Dawn
6:05 AM
Civil Dusk
9:44 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:40 AM
Sunset
9:12 PM
Civil Dawn
6:10 AM
Civil Dusk
9:42 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:35 AM
Sunset
9:08 PM
Civil Dawn
6:05 AM
Civil Dusk
9:39 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:29 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
5:58 AM
Civil Dusk
9:40 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:31 AM
Sunset
9:08 PM
Civil Dawn
6:00 AM
Civil Dusk
9:39 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:28 AM
Sunset
9:01 PM
Civil Dawn
5:57 AM
Civil Dusk
9:31 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:22 AM
Sunset
9:06 PM
Civil Dawn
5:50 AM
Civil Dusk
9:38 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:25 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:54 AM
Civil Dusk
9:34 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:25 AM
Sunset
9:02 PM
Civil Dawn
5:54 AM
Civil Dusk
9:32 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:16 AM
Sunset
8:57 PM
Civil Dawn
5:45 AM
Civil Dusk
9:28 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:22 AM
Sunset
8:56 PM
Civil Dawn
5:51 AM
Civil Dusk
9:26 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.