kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Wed, Jul 8
Fri, Jul 10
Forecast For

Thursday, July 9

Updated Jul 9, 7:16 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Watch

Jul 8, 11:34 AM -> Jul 9, 8:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 8 at 10:34AM CDT until July 12 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jul 8, 11:39 AM -> Jul 9, 5:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 8 at 11:39AM EDT until July 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 8, 12:01 PM -> Jul 9, 12:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 8 at 12:01PM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 5:13 PM -> Jul 8, 8:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 5:13PM EDT until July 8 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 5:13 PM -> Jul 8, 8:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 4:13PM CDT until July 8 at 7:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 8, 5:31 PM -> Jul 8, 8:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 8 at 5:31PM EDT until July 8 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 8, 5:33 PM -> Jul 8, 8:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 8 at 4:33PM CDT until July 8 at 7:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 6:00 PM -> Jul 8, 9:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 5:00PM CDT until July 8 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 6:14 PM -> Jul 8, 9:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 5:14PM CDT until July 8 at 8:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 8, 6:17 PM -> Jul 8, 8:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 8 at 6:17PM EDT until July 8 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 6:21 PM -> Jul 8, 9:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 6:21PM EDT until July 8 at 9:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 8, 6:34 PM -> Jul 8, 9:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 8 at 5:34PM CDT until July 8 at 8:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 6:58 PM -> Jul 8, 9:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 5:58PM CDT until July 8 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 7:19 PM -> Jul 8, 10:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 7:19PM EDT until July 8 at 10:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 7:25 PM -> Jul 8, 10:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 7:25PM EDT until July 8 at 10:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 8, 7:35 PM -> Jul 8, 10:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 8 at 6:35PM CDT until July 8 at 9:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 8:10 PM -> Jul 8, 10:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 8:10PM EDT until July 8 at 10:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 8:31 PM -> Jul 8, 10:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 8:31PM EDT until July 8 at 10:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 8:38 PM -> Jul 8, 10:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 8:38PM EDT until July 8 at 10:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 8:52 PM -> Jul 8, 10:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 8:52PM EDT until July 8 at 10:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 9:22 PM -> Jul 8, 9:32 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 9:22PM EDT until July 8 at 9:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 9:30 PM -> Jul 8, 10:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 9:30PM EDT until July 8 at 10:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jul 8, 11:36 PM -> Jul 9, 8:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 8 at 11:36PM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 4:23 AM -> Jul 9, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 4:23AM EDT until July 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 4:32 AM -> Jul 9, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 3:32AM CDT until July 12 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 8:00 AM -> Jul 9, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 8:00AM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 9:13 AM -> Jul 9, 6:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 9:13AM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 9:30 AM -> Jul 9, 5:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 9:30AM EDT until July 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 11:09 AM -> Jul 10, 8:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 10:09AM CDT until July 12 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 2:24 PM -> Jul 9, 10:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 2:24PM EDT until July 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 2:41 PM -> Jul 10, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 2:41PM EDT until July 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 2:43 PM -> Jul 10, 12:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 2:43PM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jul 9, 6:09 PM -> Jul 10, 2:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 9 at 6:09PM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Confidence
65%

July Heat Meets Tropical Moisture; Heavy Rain West

A sweltering and humid Thursday is expected across Kentucky as a tropical moisture plume intersects a sagging surface trough. This will result in a split weather story: intense convective downpours in Western Kentucky and muggy, overcast conditions with light rain in the East.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is high for a hot and humid day, but significant model disagreement regarding the nature of precipitation (convective bursts vs. steady light rain) lowers the overall score.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Hot and Humid with Evening Showers
Rain
91°/ 72°

Northwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Heavy Evening Storms Likely
Heavy_Rain
89°/ 71°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Steam and Stray Late Showers
Cloudy
90°/ 70°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Muggy and Mostly Overcast
Rain
87°/ 69°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Heat and Humidity Hold Firm
Cloudy
90°/ 72°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Passing Afternoon Showers
Rain
85°/ 70°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Humid with Morning Drizzle
Rain
84°/ 69°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Damp Morning, Muggy Afternoon
Rain
87°/ 71°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Overcast and Sticky in Lexington
Cloudy
84°/ 70°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Foggy and Damp Start
Rain
84°/ 68°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Steady Light Rain Throughout the Day
Rain
84°/ 71°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Showers and High Humidity in the Valleys
Rain
82°/ 70°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the surface trough stalls directly over the Pennyrile and Purchase regions while the cap breaks early, localized rainfall totals could exceed 2.5 inches with heat indices climbing to 100 degrees before storms arrive.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If widespread cloud cover from the Gulf moisture plume remains thick through the afternoon, temperatures will struggle to reach the mid-80s, and the lack of surface heating will limit storms to weak, stratiform rain with little accumulation.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Cloud Suppression Duel

The Euro suggests heavy cloud cover will keep temperatures in the mid-80s, whereas the NAM and GFS allow for enough insolation to push temperatures into the lower 90s.

EURO
VS
NAM
VS
GFS
Why BLEND Wins

While the moisture plume is significant, Kentucky in July typically reaches the upper 80s even with significant cloud cover unless precipitation is continuous.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METROBLUEGRASS CORENORTHERN KY

Convective Intensity vs. Stratiform Drizzle

The NAM is aggressively forecasting deep convective development (1500+ J/kg CAPE) along a surface trough in Western KY, while the GFS and Euro maintain a much more stable, stratiform rain profile with zero to minimal CAPE.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

In high-moisture July environments, mesoscale boundaries like the sagging trough in the NAM often serve as the primary trigger for pulse convection that global models tend to 'smear' into light stratiform rain.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A uniform, high-theta-e airmass is in place with moist adiabatic lapse rates and no significant vertical inversions.

Thermal Boundary

A weak surface trough is sagging toward the Ohio River, currently positioned near the I-64 corridor in Southern IL/IN.

Diurnal Trend

Standard diurnal heating is expected, though it will be attenuated by multi-layer cloud cover in the east and late-day convection in the west.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No true cold front is present; the surface trough will provide a subtle wind shift to the west-northwest in the Northwest Pennyrile late in the day.

Jet Stream Support

The right-entrance region of a 100kt jet over the Great Lakes is providing subtle synoptic-scale divergence.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough with a vorticity maximum of 0.00016 is pivoting through the western regions after 18z.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is highly saturated from the surface to 500mb with PWATs near 1.8 inches. No virga risk exists.

Precipitation Character

A mix of convective showers and storms in the west, with stratiform drizzle and light showers in the east.

Flooding Context

The ground is not saturated, but high rainfall rates in the west (1"/hr+) could cause localized ponding in urban areas like Owensboro.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Crescent

30% Illumination
Moonrise
2:01 AM
Moonset
4:45 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:43 AM
Sunset
9:17 PM
Civil Dawn
6:13 AM
Civil Dusk
9:48 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:35 AM
Sunset
9:13 PM
Civil Dawn
6:04 AM
Civil Dusk
9:44 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:39 AM
Sunset
9:12 PM
Civil Dawn
6:09 AM
Civil Dusk
9:43 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:35 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
6:05 AM
Civil Dusk
9:39 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:28 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
5:57 AM
Civil Dusk
9:40 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:30 AM
Sunset
9:08 PM
Civil Dawn
6:00 AM
Civil Dusk
9:39 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:27 AM
Sunset
9:01 PM
Civil Dawn
5:57 AM
Civil Dusk
9:32 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:21 AM
Sunset
9:07 PM
Civil Dawn
5:49 AM
Civil Dusk
9:38 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:24 AM
Sunset
9:04 PM
Civil Dawn
5:53 AM
Civil Dusk
9:35 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:24 AM
Sunset
9:02 PM
Civil Dawn
5:53 AM
Civil Dusk
9:33 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:15 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
5:44 AM
Civil Dusk
9:29 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:21 AM
Sunset
8:56 PM
Civil Dawn
5:50 AM
Civil Dusk
9:27 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.