kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Tue, Jul 7
Thu, Jul 9
Forecast For

Wednesday, July 8

Updated Jul 8, 7:17 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 5:16 PM -> Jul 7, 8:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 4:16PM CDT until July 7 at 7:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 5:27 PM -> Jul 7, 8:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 5:27PM EDT until July 7 at 8:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 5:52 PM -> Jul 7, 9:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 4:52PM CDT until July 7 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 6:04 PM -> Jul 7, 9:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 6:04PM EDT until July 7 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 7, 6:15 PM -> Jul 7, 8:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 7 at 6:15PM EDT until July 7 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 7:34 PM -> Jul 7, 10:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 6:34PM CDT until July 7 at 9:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 8:04 PM -> Jul 7, 10:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 7:04PM CDT until July 7 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 8:25 PM -> Jul 7, 10:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 8:25PM EDT until July 7 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 8:36 PM -> Jul 7, 11:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 7:36PM CDT until July 7 at 10:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 7, 9:08 PM -> Jul 7, 9:18 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 7 at 9:08PM EDT until July 7 at 9:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 9:32 PM -> Jul 8, 12:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 8:32PM CDT until July 7 at 11:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 9:44 PM -> Jul 8, 12:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 8:44PM CDT until July 7 at 11:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 10:12 PM -> Jul 8, 1:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 9:12PM CDT until July 8 at 12:15AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 11:03 PM -> Jul 8, 2:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 10:03PM CDT until July 8 at 1:15AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 8, 1:40 AM -> Jul 8, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 8 at 1:40AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 8, 5:37 AM -> Jul 8, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 8 at 5:37AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Dense Fog Advisory

Jul 8, 5:40 AM -> Jul 8, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Dense Fog Advisory issued July 8 at 5:40AM EDT until July 8 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jul 8, 11:34 AM -> Jul 9, 8:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 8 at 10:34AM CDT until July 12 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jul 8, 11:39 AM -> Jul 9, 5:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 8 at 11:39AM EDT until July 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 8, 12:01 PM -> Jul 9, 12:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 8 at 12:01PM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 12:44 PM -> Jul 8, 3:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 12:44PM EDT until July 8 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 1:08 PM -> Jul 8, 4:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 1:08PM EDT until July 8 at 4:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 1:17 PM -> Jul 8, 4:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 1:17PM EDT until July 8 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 8, 1:56 PM -> Jul 8, 4:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 8 at 1:56PM EDT until July 8 at 4:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 2:04 PM -> Jul 8, 5:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 2:04PM EDT until July 8 at 5:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 8, 2:10 PM -> Jul 8, 5:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 8 at 2:10PM EDT until July 8 at 5:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 2:27 PM -> Jul 8, 5:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 2:27PM EDT until July 8 at 5:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 2:44 PM -> Jul 8, 5:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 1:44PM CDT until July 8 at 4:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 3:15 PM -> Jul 8, 6:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 2:15PM CDT until July 8 at 5:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 3:15 PM -> Jul 8, 6:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 3:15PM EDT until July 8 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 3:16 PM -> Jul 8, 6:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 2:16PM CDT until July 8 at 5:30PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 3:20 PM -> Jul 8, 5:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 2:20PM CDT until July 8 at 4:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 3:21 PM -> Jul 8, 6:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 3:21PM EDT until July 8 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 3:23 PM -> Jul 8, 6:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 3:23PM EDT until July 8 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 3:48 PM -> Jul 8, 7:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 2:48PM CDT until July 8 at 6:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 3:54 PM -> Jul 8, 5:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 2:54PM CDT until July 8 at 4:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 4:00 PM -> Jul 8, 7:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 3:00PM CDT until July 8 at 6:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 4:08 PM -> Jul 8, 7:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 4:08PM EDT until July 8 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 4:11 PM -> Jul 8, 7:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 3:11PM CDT until July 8 at 6:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 4:17 PM -> Jul 8, 7:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 3:17PM CDT until July 8 at 6:30PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 4:38 PM -> Jul 8, 6:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 3:38PM CDT until July 8 at 5:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 4:49 PM -> Jul 8, 7:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 3:49PM CDT until July 8 at 6:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 5:03 PM -> Jul 8, 8:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 4:03PM CDT until July 8 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 5:13 PM -> Jul 8, 8:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 5:13PM EDT until July 8 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 5:13 PM -> Jul 8, 8:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 4:13PM CDT until July 8 at 7:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 8, 5:31 PM -> Jul 8, 8:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 8 at 5:31PM EDT until July 8 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 8, 5:33 PM -> Jul 8, 8:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 8 at 4:33PM CDT until July 8 at 7:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 8, 5:41 PM -> Jul 8, 6:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 8 at 4:41PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 5:48 PM -> Jul 8, 7:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 4:48PM CDT until July 8 at 6:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 8, 5:57 PM -> Jul 8, 6:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 8 at 5:57PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 6:00 PM -> Jul 8, 9:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 5:00PM CDT until July 8 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 6:14 PM -> Jul 8, 9:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 5:14PM CDT until July 8 at 8:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 8, 6:17 PM -> Jul 8, 8:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 8 at 6:17PM EDT until July 8 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 6:21 PM -> Jul 8, 9:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 6:21PM EDT until July 8 at 9:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 8, 6:34 PM -> Jul 8, 9:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 8 at 5:34PM CDT until July 8 at 8:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 6:58 PM -> Jul 8, 9:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 5:58PM CDT until July 8 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 7:19 PM -> Jul 8, 10:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 7:19PM EDT until July 8 at 10:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 8, 7:25 PM -> Jul 8, 10:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 8 at 7:25PM EDT until July 8 at 10:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 8, 7:33 PM -> Jul 8, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 8 at 7:33PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 8, 7:35 PM -> Jul 8, 10:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 8 at 6:35PM CDT until July 8 at 9:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Confidence
70%

Humid Day with Scattered Summer Showers Across Kentucky

A weak atmospheric disturbance moving through the Ohio Valley will bring scattered to widespread light rain showers to much of Kentucky on Wednesday. While not a total washout for everyone, high humidity and persistent cloud cover will keep conditions muggy. The heaviest rainfall is expected across Central and Southern Kentucky, while Northern and Northeastern regions may see lighter, more isolated activity.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is high for a muggy, cloud-filled day, but lower regarding the exact rainfall totals due to the 'Virga' risk identified in mesoscale models and the lack of a focused frontal boundary.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Warm and Humid with Afternoon Showers
Rain
85°/ 71°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Soggy Day Along the Ohio River
Rain
83°/ 71°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Morning Rain Likely
Rain
82°/ 70°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Consistent Rain and High Humidity
Rain
81°/ 70°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Muggy with Scattered Evening Showers
Cloudy
88°/ 72°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Damp Day Over the Escarpment
Rain
83°/ 70°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Afternoon Showers for the Lake
Rain
85°/ 68°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Mainly Hot and Humid with Late Sprinkles
Cloudy
88°/ 71°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Evening Rain Chances for Lexington
Rain
87°/ 70°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Periods of Rain and Drizzle
Rain
83°/ 69°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Hot and Humid with Stray Evening Showers
Cloudy
89°/ 70°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Mountain Rain Showers
Rain
84°/ 68°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The 'Boom' scenario involves the shortwave slowing its progression and better aligning with peak diurnal heating, allowing for more efficient moisture processing. In this case, widespread totals of 0.50 to 0.75 inches would occur across the Southern and Central regions, with localized ponding in the Foothills.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The 'Bust' scenario follows the drier NAM solution, where a significant layer of dry air between 800mb and 600mb leads to widespread Virga. In this outcome, most of the state stays dry with only trace amounts of rain reaching the ground, allowing temperatures to climb 3-5 degrees higher than currently forecast.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Moisture Saturation Squabble

A stark contrast exists between the NAM and the Global models (GFS/ECMWF). The NAM suggests a much drier mid-level profile, resulting in widespread Virga where rain evaporates before hitting the ground. Conversely, the GFS and ECMWF show deep-column saturation supporting measurable rainfall across the state.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

While the NAM often handles shallow moisture well, the consistent signal from the GFS and ECMWF for measurable precipitation in a high-PWAT environment makes a dry forecast too risky. A blend favors the global models for coverage while using the NAM to temper extreme localized totals.

Affected Regions
PURCHASELOUISVILLE METROBLUEGRASS CORENORTHEAST KY

Precipitation Core Placement

The GFS targets the Bluegrass Foothills and Southeast Coalfields for the heaviest rain due to orographic lift, while the ECMWF shifts the axis of heaviest rain further west into the Pennyrile and Barren River regions.

GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

The ECMWF's handling of the tropical moisture flux from the south is generally more reliable in weak-flow summer regimes, though GFS terrain-enhancement logic is likely to verify in the Eastern mountains.

Affected Regions
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILEBARREN RIVERBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLSSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A tropical-like vertical stack is present with a moist-adiabatic lapse rate. No significant 'warm nose' or inversions are present as the entire column is well above freezing.

Thermal Boundary

No major synoptic boundaries exist; the state remains entrenched in a warm, maritime tropical airmass south of a weak trough axis near the Ohio River.

Diurnal Trend

A suppressed diurnal curve is expected due to cloud cover. Morning lows will be very warm (upper 60s/low 70s) and daytime highs will be held in the mid-80s by lack of solar insulation.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No distinct front. A subtle wind shift from SW to W will occur as the shortwave axis passes mid-afternoon.

Jet Stream Support

Kentucky sits in the right entrance region of a 90-100kt jet streak over the Northeast, providing broad-scale ascent.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through broad cyclonic flow, providing enough vorticity for light precipitation.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Highly saturated below 700mb state-wide, but mesoscale models show a dry slot near 600mb that could cause some rain to evaporate (Virga) in the North.

Precipitation Character

Primarily stratiform and light drizzle, with occasional embedded convective pulses in the afternoon.

Flooding Context

Ground is unsaturated and rainfall rates are low (<0.10"/hr), so flash flooding is not anticipated despite high humidity.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Last Quarter

41% Illumination
Moonrise
1:29 AM
Moonset
3:31 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:42 AM
Sunset
9:18 PM
Civil Dawn
6:12 AM
Civil Dusk
9:48 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:35 AM
Sunset
9:14 PM
Civil Dawn
6:04 AM
Civil Dusk
9:45 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:39 AM
Sunset
9:13 PM
Civil Dawn
6:08 AM
Civil Dusk
9:43 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:34 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
6:04 AM
Civil Dusk
9:39 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:28 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:57 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:30 AM
Sunset
9:08 PM
Civil Dawn
5:59 AM
Civil Dusk
9:39 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:26 AM
Sunset
9:02 PM
Civil Dawn
5:56 AM
Civil Dusk
9:32 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:20 AM
Sunset
9:07 PM
Civil Dawn
5:49 AM
Civil Dusk
9:39 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:23 AM
Sunset
9:04 PM
Civil Dawn
5:52 AM
Civil Dusk
9:35 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:23 AM
Sunset
9:02 PM
Civil Dawn
5:52 AM
Civil Dusk
9:33 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:15 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
5:43 AM
Civil Dusk
9:29 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:20 AM
Sunset
8:57 PM
Civil Dawn
5:50 AM
Civil Dusk
9:27 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.