kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Mon, Jul 6
Wed, Jul 8
Forecast For

Tuesday, July 7

Updated Jul 7, 7:17 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Advisory

Jul 6, 11:31 PM -> Jul 7, 2:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 6 at 11:31PM EDT until July 7 at 2:45AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jul 7, 1:00 AM -> Jul 7, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 7 at 1:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 7, 2:11 AM -> Jul 7, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 7 at 2:11AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jul 7, 6:00 AM -> Jul 7, 9:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 7 at 6:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 12:08 PM -> Jul 7, 3:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 11:08AM CDT until July 7 at 2:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 7, 2:23 PM -> Jul 7, 3:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 7 at 1:23PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 2:39 PM -> Jul 7, 5:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 2:39PM EDT until July 7 at 5:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 2:49 PM -> Jul 7, 6:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 2:49PM EDT until July 7 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 7, 3:09 PM -> Jul 7, 3:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 7 at 3:09PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 3:11 PM -> Jul 7, 6:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 3:11PM EDT until July 7 at 6:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 3:12 PM -> Jul 7, 6:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 3:12PM EDT until July 7 at 6:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 3:19 PM -> Jul 7, 6:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 3:19PM EDT until July 7 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 3:22 PM -> Jul 7, 6:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 3:22PM EDT until July 7 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 4:00 PM -> Jul 7, 7:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 3:00PM CDT until July 7 at 6:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 4:08 PM -> Jul 7, 7:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 4:08PM EDT until July 7 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 4:25 PM -> Jul 7, 7:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 4:25PM EDT until July 7 at 7:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 4:28 PM -> Jul 7, 7:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 3:28PM CDT until July 7 at 6:30PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 4:31 PM -> Jul 7, 7:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 4:31PM EDT until July 7 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 4:32 PM -> Jul 7, 7:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 3:32PM CDT until July 7 at 6:30PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 7, 4:49 PM -> Jul 7, 6:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 7 at 4:49PM EDT until July 7 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 7, 4:59 PM -> Jul 7, 6:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 7 at 4:59PM EDT until July 7 at 6:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 7, 5:02 PM -> Jul 7, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 7 at 4:02PM CDT until July 7 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 5:16 PM -> Jul 7, 8:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 4:16PM CDT until July 7 at 7:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 5:27 PM -> Jul 7, 8:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 5:27PM EDT until July 7 at 8:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 7, 5:39 PM -> Jul 7, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 7 at 4:39PM CDT until July 7 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 7, 5:41 PM -> Jul 7, 7:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 7 at 5:41PM EDT until July 7 at 7:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 5:43 PM -> Jul 7, 7:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 4:43PM CDT until July 7 at 6:30PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 5:52 PM -> Jul 7, 9:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 4:52PM CDT until July 7 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 6:04 PM -> Jul 7, 9:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 6:04PM EDT until July 7 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 7, 6:15 PM -> Jul 7, 8:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 7 at 6:15PM EDT until July 7 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 7, 7:34 PM -> Jul 7, 10:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 7 at 6:34PM CDT until July 7 at 9:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Confidence
70%

Humid With Scattered Showers; Best Rain Chances South

A warm and muggy summer pattern will persist across Kentucky. A weak upper-level disturbance moving through a high-moisture environment will trigger scattered light to moderate rain showers throughout the day, particularly across southern and central portions of the state. Northern Kentucky will remain the driest, seeing primarily cloud cover and only trace amounts of precipitation.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in temperatures and cloud coverage, but significant disagreement between the mesoscale NAM and global models regarding the northern extent of measurable precipitation keeps the score at 70.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Occasional Showers and Muggy
Rain
85°/ 71°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Cloudy with Late Day Showers
Rain
87°/ 72°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Showers Likely All Day
Rain
85°/ 71°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Soggy Afternoon for Bowling Green
Rain
84°/ 71°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Muggy with Trace Sprinkles
Cloudy
87°/ 72°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Passing Afternoon Showers
Rain
84°/ 70°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Damp and Humid Around the Lake
Rain
84°/ 69°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Mostly Cloudy and Dry
Cloudy
86°/ 71°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Humid with Light Showers
Rain
85°/ 71°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Scattered Showers Near the Knobs
Rain
85°/ 69°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Warm and Muggy with Sprinkles
Cloudy
88°/ 70°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Mountain Showers Developing
Rain
84°/ 67°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the shortwave slows and deepens, orographic lift and high moisture efficiency could push localized rainfall totals over 0.75 inches in the South-Central and Southeast regions.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the dry lower atmosphere noted in the NAM and GFS holds firm, most rain will evaporate as virga before reaching the ground, leaving much of the state with only trace amounts.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Northern Virga Gap

Disagreement on whether precipitation will actually reach the ground in Louisville and Northern Kentucky given a deep dry layer in the lower 3,000 feet.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

The NAM and GFS show significant dewpoint depressions at the surface; consensus favors high PoPs but negligible liquid accumulation.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METRONORTHERN KY

The Purchase Moisture Wall

The NAM keeps the Purchase region entirely dry under a ridge axis, while the GFS and Euro bring a moisture plume with over 0.25 inches of rain.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

Global models generally handle the synoptic transport of maritime tropical moisture better than the NAM's initial dry bias in stagnant summer setups.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A maritime tropical airmass is in place with a moist-adiabatic lapse rate. Freezing levels are exceptionally high, near 15,000 feet.

Thermal Boundary

A weak, diffuse surface trough is stalled along the Ohio River, acting as a focus for low-level convergence.

Diurnal Trend

A muted diurnal curve due to high cloud cover; temperature spreads will be limited to 10-15 degrees in rain-cooled areas.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No frontal passage; wind shifts are negligible and dominated by the broader ridge/high pressure to the east.

Jet Stream Support

The right entrance region of a 70kt subtropical jet streak over the Mid-South provides large-scale lift for the southern tier.

Energy Status

Several low-amplitude vorticity ripples are embedded in the zonal flow, peaking in intensity between 15Z and 21Z.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Deeply saturated column above 800mb, but a stubborn dry pocket remains near the surface in the northern half of the state (Virga risk).

Precipitation Character

Predominantly stratiform light rain with localized convective bursts in the South. No severe threat.

Flooding Context

Stable hydrology; ground is receptive to the light-to-moderate rain rates expected.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Last Quarter

52% Illumination
Moonrise
1:00 AM
Moonset
2:20 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:42 AM
Sunset
9:18 PM
Civil Dawn
6:11 AM
Civil Dusk
9:48 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:34 AM
Sunset
9:14 PM
Civil Dawn
6:03 AM
Civil Dusk
9:45 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:38 AM
Sunset
9:13 PM
Civil Dawn
6:08 AM
Civil Dusk
9:43 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:34 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
6:03 AM
Civil Dusk
9:40 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:27 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:56 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:29 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
5:58 AM
Civil Dusk
9:40 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:26 AM
Sunset
9:02 PM
Civil Dawn
5:55 AM
Civil Dusk
9:33 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:20 AM
Sunset
9:07 PM
Civil Dawn
5:48 AM
Civil Dusk
9:39 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:23 AM
Sunset
9:04 PM
Civil Dawn
5:52 AM
Civil Dusk
9:35 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:23 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:52 AM
Civil Dusk
9:34 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:14 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
5:43 AM
Civil Dusk
9:30 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:20 AM
Sunset
8:57 PM
Civil Dawn
5:49 AM
Civil Dusk
9:27 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.