Monday, July 6
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 5 at 12:32AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana to midnight EDT Sunday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued July 6 at 4:00AM CDT until July 6 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Visibility of 1/4 mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE A portion of western Kentucky.
WHEN Until 9 AM CDT this morning.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 6 at 1:11PM EDT until July 6 at 4:15PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE The following county, in northern Kentucky, Pendleton.
WHEN Until 415 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 111 PM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 2 inches are possible. - Some locations that may experience flooding include... Williamstown, Falmouth, Morgan, Gene Snyder Airport, Goforth, Catawba, Marcus, Kincaid Lake State Park, Mckinneysburg and Knoxville.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. To report flooding, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 6 at 1:14PM EDT until July 6 at 4:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of central Kentucky, including the following county, Harrison.
WHEN Until 415 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 114 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Cynthiana, Breckinridge, Berry, Robinson, Garnett, Kelat, Poindexter, Colemansville, Boyd and Renaker. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 6 at 1:35PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
At 135 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Williamstown, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, and very heavy rain.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to vegetation. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible. Locations impacted include... Williamstown, Falmouth, Morgan, Corinth, Goforth, Greenwood, Cherry Grove, Williamstown Lake, Keefer, Marcus, Catawba, Camp Northward, Gene Snyder Airport, Lawrenceville, Cordova, and Mckinneysburg. This includes I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 144 and 155. If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building. Motorists should slow down and use extra caution. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 6 at 1:42PM EDT until July 6 at 4:45PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE The following county, in northern Kentucky, Owen.
WHEN Until 445 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 142 PM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1.5 inches are possible. - Some locations that may experience flooding include... Monterey and Gratz.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. To report flooding, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 6 at 12:52PM CDT until July 6 at 4:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, including the following counties, Hardin, Massac and Pope and western Kentucky, including the following counties, Crittenden, Livingston and McCracken.
WHEN Until 400 PM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1251 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Paducah, Lone Oak, Rosiclare, Brookport, Burna, Joy, Elizabethtown, Carrsville and Gross.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 6 at 12:57PM CDT until July 6 at 4:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of western Kentucky, including the following county, Daviess.
WHEN Until 400 PM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1257 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Up to 1 inch of rain has fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Owensboro.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 6 at 2:10PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 210 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong thunderstorms near Paris, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Paris, Millersburg, Shawhan, Jackstown, Blacks Crossroads, Ruddels Mills, Headquarters, Colville, Broadwell, and Currentsville.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 6 at 2:18PM EDT until July 6 at 5:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of central Kentucky, including the following counties, Bourbon, Fayette, Harrison and Scott.
WHEN Until 530 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 218 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Paris, Ewalt Crossroads, Brentsville, Kiserton, Jacksonville, Shawhan, Currentsville, Broadwell, Ruddels Mills and Leesburg. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 6 at 1:34PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 134 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm near Salem, or 7 miles west of Marion, moving south at 5 mph.
HAZARD Landspouts and wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Marion, Salem, and Dycusburg.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 6 at 2:35PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
At 235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Greenup, or 11 miles west of Ironton, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Ashland, Ironton, Coal Grove, Lake Vesuvius, Catlettsburg, Greenup, Load, Greenbo Lake, Franklin Furnace, Flatwoods, Russell, Vernon, Raceland, Worthington, Wurtland, Bellefonte, Westwood, Hanging Rock, Haverhill, and Warnock.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 6 at 2:37PM EDT until July 6 at 5:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of central Kentucky, including the following counties, Jefferson and Shelby.
WHEN Until 545 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 237 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Louisville, Jeffersontown, Middletown, Douglass Hills, Hurstbourne, Anchorage, Hurstbourne Acres, St. Regis Park, West Buechel and Blue Ridge Manor. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued July 6 at 2:50PM EDT until July 6 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
FFWLMK The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... East Central Jefferson County in central Kentucky... Western Shelby County in central Kentucky... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 250 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Louisville, Jeffersontown, Middletown, Douglass Hills, Hurstbourne, Anchorage, Hurstbourne Acres, St. Regis Park, Blue Ridge Manor and Woodland Hills.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 6 at 2:57PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 256 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Blackmont, or 9 miles east of Pineville, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Stony Fork Junction, Black Snake, Pathfork, Miracle, Blackmont, Balkan, Kettle Island, Molus, Varilla, Callaway, Cubage, and Oaks.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Humid with Scattered Summer Showers Across the Commonwealth
A moist airmass and several weak upper-level disturbances will bring rounds of light to moderate rain to Kentucky. While much of the day will be cloudy and humid, the most persistent rain will focus on the western and eastern regions, with scattered showers elsewhere.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall humid airmass and presence of moisture, but minor penalties for timing differences and the NAM's drier solution in the central corridor.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect frequent rain during the morning hours, tapering to scattered showers by the afternoon. Accumulations will be around 0.4 inches.
Northwest Pennyrile
Intermittent rain is expected throughout the day. Total rainfall will likely reach 0.2 inches.
Southwest Pennyrile
Widespread showers will peak in intensity during the afternoon. Rainfall amounts of 0.3 inches are expected.
Barren River
Expect several rounds of light rain throughout the day, totaling around 0.3 inches.
Louisville Metro
Off-and-on showers are expected throughout the day. Accumulations will remain light, around 0.2 inches.
Lincoln Trail
Rain will be most consistent in the afternoon. Expect accumulations around 0.3 inches.
Lake Cumberland
A mostly cloudy and humid day with scattered rain showers arriving by late morning. Totals near 0.2 inches.
Northern Kentucky
Rain will hold off until the late afternoon or evening. Expect accumulations of around 0.1 inches.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a grey day with periods of light rain, primarily in the afternoon. Accumulations around 0.2 inches.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect several rounds of rain today, with totals reaching 0.4 inches as moisture moves into the foothills.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will arrive late in the day. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s before the rain moves in. Totals around 0.15 inches.
Southeast Kentucky
Cloudy and warm today with light rain showers becoming more frequent in the evening. Accumulations near 0.2 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If convective elements become more organized or 'train' over the same areas as suggested by the GFS, localized rainfall totals could exceed 1.25 inches, particularly in the western Purchase and Bluegrass Foothills.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If mid-level dry air identified in the NAM profiles persists, much of central and northern Kentucky may see nothing more than 'virga' or light sprinkles, with significant rainfall staying confined to the far west.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Heat vs. Cloud Battle
The GFS forecasts highs in the low 90s for Northern and Northeast KY, while the NAM and Euro suggest mid-80s due to extensive cloud cover.
Why BLEND Wins
While cloud cover will be significant, summer solar insolation usually triumphs over thin stratiform decks. A blend between the cooler Euro and hotter GFS accounts for the likely breaks in the clouds.
The Coverage Conflict
A major disagreement exists regarding precipitation coverage. The GFS and Euro favor widespread 80% coverage, whereas the NAM keeps a dry slot over the Louisville and Lexington corridors.
Why EURO Wins
The GFS likely suffers from its 'smear' bias, but the NAM's dry slot appears too aggressive given the high moisture content (PWATs > 1.7in) and synoptic lift. The Euro provides the most realistic middle-ground for coverage.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.