Sunday, July 5
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 4 at 12:28AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Sunday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Extreme Heat Warning
Extreme Heat Warning issued July 4 at 12:14PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Dangerously hot conditions continue with heat index values peaking between 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN Until 9 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Heat-related illnesses increase significantly during extreme heat and high humidity events.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Heat Advisory
Heat Advisory issued July 4 at 12:14PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Heat index values will peak around 100 degrees this afternoon in most locations.
WHERE Portions of east central, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN Until 9 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Heat Advisory
Heat Advisory issued July 4 at 1:13PM CDT until July 4 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Heat index values of 100 to 105.
WHERE All of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN Until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening.
IMPACTS Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.
Heat Advisory
Heat Advisory issued July 4 at 3:35PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Heat index values of 95-105.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN Until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening.
IMPACTS Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 6:47PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 646 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong thunderstorm near Owensboro, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE Trained weather spotters.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Owensboro, Knottsville, Masonville, Moseleyville, and Pleasant Ridge. This includes the following highways... Interstate 165 between Mile Markers 60 and 70. Audubon Parkway between Mile Markers 18 and 23.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 8:03PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 803 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Osborn to Zebulon to Fishtrap Lake. Movement was northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD Heavy rain and wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Pikeville, Coal Run Village, Meta, Fishtrap Lake, Coal Run, Zebulon, Garden Village, Phyllis, Aluba, Piso, Betsy Layne, Ivel, Raccoon, Osborn, Mcandrews, Justell, Harold, Sidney, Galveston, and Shelbiana. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... U.S. Highway 119 in Pike County between mile markers 1 and 17. U.S. Highway 23 in Floyd County between mile markers 1 and 6. U.S. Highway 23 in Pike County between mile markers 19 and 32.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 4 at 7:38PM CDT until July 4 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 738 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of Cadiz, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Hopkinsville and Cadiz. This includes Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 62 and 74.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 8:40PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 840 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Meta to Sidney to Mcandrews to near Coleman. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD Heavy rain and wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Forest Hills, Rural, Huddy, Mcandrews, Turkey Creek, Belfry, Hatfield Station, Heisey, Whitepost, Hardy, Conder, Sidney, Phelps, Canada, Varney, Majestic, Board Tree, and Edgarton. THIS INCLUDES U.S. Highway 119 in Pike County between mile markers 9 and 24.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 4 at 8:10PM CDT until July 4 at 11:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of central Kentucky, including the following county, Ohio.
WHEN Until 1115 PM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 810 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Hartford, Centertown, Beda, No Creek, Heflin, Buford, Taffy, Bells Run, Matanzas and Dukehurst. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 8:20PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 820 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Pembroke, or near Hopkinsville, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Hopkinsville, Elkton, Pembroke, and Trenton. This includes Pennyrile Parkway between Mile Markers 7 and 8.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 9:30PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
At 929 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Grayson Lake State Park, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Grayson, Grayson Lake State Park, Denton, Grahn, Willard, and Hitchins. This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 165 and 174.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 9:54PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 954 PM EDT/854 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11 miles northeast of Leitchfield, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Spurrier, Limp, Saint Paul, Eastview, White Mills, Howe Valley, Vertrees, West Clifty, Hansbrough, and Solway.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 9:56PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
At 955 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Denton, or near Grayson, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Grayson, Cannonsburg, Princess, Oldtown, Coalton, Denton, Rush, Hopewell, Mavity, and Hitchins. This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 166 and 187.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 9:12PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 912 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9 miles east of Plum Springs, moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Smiths Grove, Oakland, Three Forks, Red Cross, Hardcastle, Rocky Hill, Hays, Polkville, Martinsville, and Kepler.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 9:23PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 923 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles west of Scottsville, moving southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Scottsville, Fleet, Rodemer, West Fork, Clare, Petroleum, Alonzo, Chapel Hill, Red Hill, and Forest Springs.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 5 at 12:28AM EDT until July 5 at 4:30AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE The following counties, in southeast Indiana, Ohio and Switzerland and the following counties, in northern Kentucky, Boone and Gallatin.
WHEN Until 430 AM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1227 AM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible. - Some locations that may experience flooding include... Florence, Independence, Elsmere, Walton, Rising Sun, Burlington, Oakbrook, Union, Patriot, Big Bone Lick, Waterloo, Hueys Corners, Rabbit Hash, Beaverlick, Belleview, Steele Bottom, North Landing, Richwood and Quercus Grove.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. To report flooding, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 5 at 12:32AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana to midnight EDT Sunday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Humidity and Scattered Showers to Impact Central Kentucky
A warm, humid summer day will bring scattered showers and isolated heavy rain to Kentucky. While the heaviest precipitation will likely focus on the Louisville and North-Central corridors, much of the state will deal with persistent cloud cover and muggy conditions. The Southeast remains the driest and warmest region.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high on the warm/humid temperature profile but lower on rainfall totals due to significant disagreement between high-res and global models regarding the intensity of the shortwave forcing.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a mix of clouds and sun with rain showers moving through during the afternoon. Rain totals will stay around 0.2 inches, but the humidity will make it feel like the upper 80s.
Northwest Pennyrile
Rain will arrive later in the day, becoming heavy at times during the evening. Accumulations should average around half an inch, leading to wet roads.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect the highest rain chances before noon, followed by a very humid and cloudy afternoon. Total rainfall amounts will reach roughly 0.3 inches.
Barren River
A soggy day is expected with light rain and high humidity persistent from morning to night. Accumulations will be light, totaling near 0.15 inches.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see off-and-on rain, with the potential for soaking showers late in the day. Rainfall totals will reach around 0.6 inches, which may cause puddling on roads.
Lincoln Trail
Rain chances are highest in the morning and early afternoon before tapering to a humid drizzle. Accumulations around 0.15 inches are expected.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a warm day with a mix of sun and clouds, and a few light showers arriving late this evening. Rain totals will be minimal, likely under a tenth of an inch.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will stay mostly dry but very humid, with only a small chance of a stray shower. No significant rainfall accumulation is expected.
Inner Bluegrass
A hot and breezy day will give way to a few light sprinkles in the evening. Rain amounts will be very low, totaling around 0.05 inches.
Bluegrass Foothills
Humidity will build through the day with rain showers expected to move in late tonight. Rain amounts should stay around 0.15 inches.
Northeast Kentucky
Temperatures will reach 90 degrees before rain showers move in during the late evening. Expect around 0.3 inches of rain with some gusty winds at times.
Southeast Kentucky
The Southeast will be the warmest part of the state, with mostly sunny skies and only a slight chance of an evening shower. Rainfall, if any, will be under 0.05 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' Scenario occurs if the NAM's high-resolution vorticity max verifies, leading to localized training of showers and totals exceeding 1.25 inches in the Louisville Metro and Northwest Pennyrile, with rain extending into the Southeast.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' Scenario occurs if mid-level dry air, as suggested by GFS, limits vertical development, resulting in widespread virga and only trace amounts of rain for most, with the Southeast staying entirely sunny and dry.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Southeast Kentucky Smear
Global models (GFS/Euro) show widespread light rain in the Southeast, whereas the NAM keeps the region entirely dry under subsidence.
Why NAM Wins
GFS is known for 'phantom precip' smearing in summer; the NAM's reasoning regarding deep subsidence in the SE quadrant is more physically consistent with the shortwave track.
The Louisville Deluge Debate
The NAM predicts a significant axis of heavy rain (over 1 inch) due to a localized vorticity max, while the GFS and Euro predict less than 0.15 inches.
Why BLEND Wins
While the NAM resolves the mesoscale training potential better, the lack of CAPE makes its 1.12-inch total an outlier; a weighted blend captures the high probability of rain without over-forecasting the total.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.