kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Fri, Jul 3
Sun, Jul 5
Forecast For

Saturday, July 4

Updated Jul 4, 7:16 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Air Quality Alert

Jul 3, 12:23 AM -> Jul 4, 1:00 AM
Unknown Severity

Air Quality Alert issued July 3 at 12:23AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 11:21 AM -> Jul 3, 10:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 11:21AM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 11:21 AM -> Jul 3, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 11:21AM EDT until July 4 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 11:41 AM -> Jul 4, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 10:41AM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 11:41 AM -> Jul 4, 7:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 10:41AM CDT until July 4 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 3:04 PM -> Jul 3, 11:15 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 3:04PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 3:04 PM -> Jul 3, 11:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 3:04PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 3:04 PM -> Jul 3, 11:15 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 3:04PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 3:16 PM -> Jul 3, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 3:16PM EDT until July 3 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 3:16 PM -> Jul 3, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 3:16PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 5:01 PM -> Jul 4, 5:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 5:01PM EDT until July 4 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 3, 5:16 PM -> Jul 3, 8:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 3 at 4:16PM CDT until July 3 at 7:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 3, 6:57 PM -> Jul 3, 10:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 3 at 5:57PM CDT until July 3 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 3, 7:51 PM -> Jul 4, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 3 at 6:51PM CDT until July 4 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 3, 7:53 PM -> Jul 3, 8:30 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 3 at 6:53PM CDT until July 3 at 7:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 7:55 PM -> Jul 4, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 7:55PM EDT until July 4 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 7:59 PM -> Jul 4, 4:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 7:59PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 7:59 PM -> Jul 4, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 7:59PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 3, 8:25 PM -> Jul 3, 9:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 8:25PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 3, 8:29 PM -> Jul 3, 9:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 7:29PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 3, 8:29 PM -> Jul 3, 9:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 8:29PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 3, 8:49 PM -> Jul 3, 9:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 8:49PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 9:09 PM -> Jul 4, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 9:09PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 3, 10:45 PM -> Jul 3, 11:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 10:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 3, 10:48 PM -> Jul 3, 11:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 10:48PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 3, 11:25 PM -> Jul 4, 12:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 11:25PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 3, 11:27 PM -> Jul 4, 12:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 3 at 11:27PM EDT until July 4 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 4, 12:25 AM -> Jul 4, 2:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 4 at 12:25AM EDT until July 4 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Air Quality Alert

Jul 4, 12:28 AM -> Jul 5, 1:00 AM
Unknown Severity

Air Quality Alert issued July 4 at 12:28AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Heat Advisory

Jul 4, 1:40 AM -> Jul 4, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 4 at 12:40AM CDT until July 4 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 4, 3:55 AM -> Jul 4, 12:15 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 4 at 3:55AM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 4, 3:55 AM -> Jul 4, 12:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 4 at 3:55AM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 4, 4:25 AM -> Jul 4, 12:30 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 4 at 4:25AM EDT until July 4 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Heat Advisory

Jul 4, 4:58 AM -> Jul 4, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 4 at 4:58AM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 4, 6:30 AM -> Jul 4, 7:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 6:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 4, 6:43 AM -> Jul 4, 7:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 6:43AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 4, 6:46 AM -> Jul 4, 8:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 4 at 6:46AM EDT until July 4 at 8:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 4, 7:04 AM -> Jul 4, 9:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 4 at 7:04AM EDT until July 4 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 4, 7:23 AM -> Jul 4, 9:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 4 at 7:23AM EDT until July 4 at 9:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 4, 7:52 AM -> Jul 4, 9:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 4 at 7:52AM EDT until July 4 at 9:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 4, 8:23 AM -> Jul 4, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 8:23AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 4, 8:44 AM -> Jul 4, 9:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 8:44AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 4, 8:45 AM -> Jul 4, 9:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 8:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 4, 9:36 AM -> Jul 4, 10:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 4 at 9:36AM EDT until July 4 at 10:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 4, 11:56 AM -> Jul 4, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 4 at 11:56AM EDT until July 4 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Heat Advisory

Jul 4, 12:06 PM -> Jul 4, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 4 at 12:06PM EDT until July 4 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 4, 12:14 PM -> Jul 4, 8:15 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 4 at 12:14PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 4, 12:14 PM -> Jul 4, 8:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 4 at 12:14PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 4, 2:13 PM -> Jul 4, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 4 at 1:13PM CDT until July 4 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 4, 3:35 PM -> Jul 4, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 4 at 3:35PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 4, 7:47 PM -> Jul 4, 8:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 4 at 6:47PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Confidence
60%

A Sizzling 4th of July with Late-Evening Storm Risks

Kentucky will experience a hot and humid Independence Day with temperatures reaching the 90s statewide. While the morning and afternoon will remain dry for most, scattered showers in the Southeast will clear by midday, while a convective storm complex is expected to move into the Western and Northern regions after sunset, potentially affecting evening fireworks.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in a hot/humid day; however, significant disagreement exists regarding the timing and intensity of the evening storm complex, which creates low confidence for fireworks-window planning.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Hot and Dry for the Holiday
Sunny
91°/ 70°

Northwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Evening Storms May Dampen Fireworks
Rain
88°/ 68°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Clear Skies and Sizzling Heat
Sunny
90°/ 67°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Late Evening Rain Chances
Cloudy
89°/ 68°

Louisville Metro

IMPACTFUL
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Hot Day with Late Storm Risk
Rain
91°/ 73°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Evening Showers Likely
Rain
88°/ 69°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Perfect Boating Weather
Sunny
90°/ 68°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Hot with a Late Storm Chance
Rain
92°/ 74°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Hot and Dry for the Bluegrass
Sunny
90°/ 72°

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Clear and Warm Holiday
Sunny
89°/ 68°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Extreme Heat Expected
Sunny
96°/ 75°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Morning Showers Clearing Early
Rain
90°/ 71°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The NAM's convective solution verifies fully, with a robust line of thunderstorms bringing 0.5-1.0 inch of rain and frequent lightning to the I-64 and I-65 corridors right at sunset, causing widespread cancellations of outdoor events.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The moisture remains capped or the front stalls north of the Ohio River (as hinted by the GFS dry slot), resulting in a completely dry but oppressively hot and humid holiday for the entire state, with only isolated 'pop-up' virga showers that fail to reach the ground.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Heat Peak Discrepancy

The GFS is aggressively hot in the Northeast, suggesting highs of 97F, while the NAM and Euro keep totals closer to 92-94F due to expected cloud debris.

GFS
VS
NAM
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

A blend accounts for the high-end potential of solar insolation in the Northeast while respecting the NAM's cloud cover timing.

Affected Regions
NORTHEAST KYBLUEGRASS CORE

The Convective Conflict

The NAM predicts a distinct line of storms (convective) with significant rainfall totals, while the GFS and Euro predict widespread but light 'warm rain' (stratiform/drizzle) with near-zero CAPE.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

In a July environment with surface temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s, the NAM's resolution of mesoscale lift and instability is more physically consistent for the Ohio Valley than the global models' smeared, low-instability output.

Affected Regions
NORTHWEST PENNYRILELOUISVILLE METRONORTHERN KYLINCOLN TRAIL

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical stack is characterized by a standard adiabatic lapse rate with high surface theta-e. The 0C isotherm is near 15,000ft, precluding any frozen precipitation. A high-energy boundary layer is present with surface temps 88-96F.

Thermal Boundary

A weak cold front/thermal boundary is progged to be stalled over the Ohio River by early evening, drifting into the Bluegrass and Pennyrile regions after midnight.

Diurnal Trend

A standard diurnal curve will see rapid heating through 18z, with temperatures peaking around 21z. Non-diurnal cooling will be delayed in urban centers like Louisville and Northern KY due to concrete heat retention.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A weak frontal boundary enters the Northwest Pennyrile and Louisville Metro around 00z-02z, marked by a subtle wind shift from SW to NW and a moderate drop in dewpoints behind the line.

Jet Stream Support

Kentucky sits in the right entrance region of a Great Lakes jet streak, providing the necessary large-scale divergence to sustain evening convection.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough provides localized vorticity maxima (vorticity peaks 0.00015-0.00020), which will be the primary engine for storm development in the absence of stronger synoptic forcing.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is initially dry at mid-levels with large dewpoint depressions, but will saturate from the top-down in the West by 21z. There is a risk of virga in Northern KY early in the evening before the main line arrives.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be predominantly convective in the West and North (bursts of heavy rain/lightning), while the Southeast will see morning orographic showers (stratiform).

Flooding Context

Ground conditions are dry to average; while rain rates may be high in storm cores (0.75"/hr), the risk of widespread flooding is low due to the progressive nature of the storm line.

Severe Risk

Instability & Shear

Atmospheric ingredients required for severe thunderstorms, including available fuel (CAPE) and storm organization (shear).

Shear Analysis

Deep-layer shear is marginal (20-30 kts), suggesting multicell clusters rather than supercellular development.

Instability Context

Surface-based CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg is available if daytime heating is not suppressed by early cloud cover.

Primary Threat

Isolated damaging wind gusts (40-50 mph) within collapsing storm cores is the primary threat.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

82% Illumination
Moonrise
11:45 PM
Moonset
11:03 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:40 AM
Sunset
9:19 PM
Civil Dawn
6:10 AM
Civil Dusk
9:49 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:32 AM
Sunset
9:15 PM
Civil Dawn
6:01 AM
Civil Dusk
9:46 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:36 AM
Sunset
9:14 PM
Civil Dawn
6:06 AM
Civil Dusk
9:44 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:32 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
6:02 AM
Civil Dusk
9:40 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:25 AM
Sunset
9:11 PM
Civil Dawn
5:54 AM
Civil Dusk
9:42 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:28 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
5:57 AM
Civil Dusk
9:40 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:24 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:54 AM
Civil Dusk
9:33 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:18 AM
Sunset
9:08 PM
Civil Dawn
5:46 AM
Civil Dusk
9:40 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:21 AM
Sunset
9:05 PM
Civil Dawn
5:50 AM
Civil Dusk
9:36 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:21 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:50 AM
Civil Dusk
9:34 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:12 AM
Sunset
8:59 PM
Civil Dawn
5:41 AM
Civil Dusk
9:30 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:18 AM
Sunset
8:57 PM
Civil Dawn
5:47 AM
Civil Dusk
9:28 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.