kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Thu, Jul 2
Sat, Jul 4
Forecast For

Friday, July 3

Updated Jul 2, 7:09 PM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Warning

Jul 1, 9:13 PM -> Jul 2, 11:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued July 1 at 8:13PM CDT until July 3 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 2, 11:16 AM -> Jul 3, 8:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 2 at 10:16AM CDT until July 4 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 11:16 AM -> Jul 3, 8:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 10:16AM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 2, 11:34 AM -> Jul 3, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 2 at 11:34AM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 11:34 AM -> Jul 3, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 11:34AM EDT until July 3 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 12:21 PM -> Jul 2, 8:30 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 12:21PM EDT until July 3 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 12:34 PM -> Jul 3, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 12:34PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 2:48 PM -> Jul 3, 12:30 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 2:48PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Air Quality Alert

Jul 2, 3:23 PM -> Jul 3, 1:00 AM
Unknown Severity

Air Quality Alert issued July 2 at 3:23PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 8:03 PM -> Jul 3, 6:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 8:03PM EDT until July 3 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 10:19 PM -> Jul 3, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 10:19PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 12:02 AM -> Jul 3, 2:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 12:02AM EDT until July 4 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 12:02 AM -> Jul 3, 2:30 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 12:02AM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Air Quality Alert

Jul 3, 12:23 AM -> Jul 4, 1:00 AM
Unknown Severity

Air Quality Alert issued July 3 at 12:23AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 1:34 AM -> Jul 3, 9:45 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 1:34AM EDT until July 4 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 2:00 AM -> Jul 3, 12:15 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 2:00AM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 2:00 AM -> Jul 3, 12:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 2:00AM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 2:00 AM -> Jul 3, 12:15 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 2:00AM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 3, 2:15 AM -> Jul 3, 8:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 2:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 3, 3:48 AM -> Jul 3, 8:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 3:48AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 4:10 AM -> Jul 3, 6:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 4:10AM EDT until July 3 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 4:10 AM -> Jul 3, 6:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 4:10AM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 3, 4:12 AM -> Jul 3, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 4:12AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 4:21 AM -> Jul 3, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 3:21AM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 4:21 AM -> Jul 3, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 3:21AM CDT until July 4 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 9:47 AM -> Jul 3, 6:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 9:47AM EDT until July 4 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 11:21 AM -> Jul 3, 10:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 11:21AM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 11:21 AM -> Jul 3, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 11:21AM EDT until July 4 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 11:41 AM -> Jul 4, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 10:41AM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 11:41 AM -> Jul 4, 7:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 10:41AM CDT until July 4 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 3, 1:56 PM -> Jul 3, 2:30 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 3 at 12:56PM CDT until July 3 at 1:30PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 3, 2:22 PM -> Jul 3, 5:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 3 at 1:22PM CDT until July 3 at 4:30PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 3:04 PM -> Jul 3, 11:15 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 3:04PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 3:04 PM -> Jul 3, 11:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 3:04PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 3:04 PM -> Jul 3, 11:15 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 3:04PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 3:16 PM -> Jul 3, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 3:16PM EDT until July 3 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 3:16 PM -> Jul 3, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 3:16PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 3, 3:31 PM -> Jul 3, 4:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 2:31PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 3, 3:36 PM -> Jul 3, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 2:36PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 3, 3:39 PM -> Jul 3, 4:15 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 3 at 2:39PM CDT until July 3 at 3:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 3, 4:20 PM -> Jul 3, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 3:20PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 3, 4:47 PM -> Jul 3, 5:15 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 3 at 3:47PM CDT until July 3 at 4:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 3, 4:49 PM -> Jul 3, 8:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 3 at 3:49PM CDT until July 3 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 5:01 PM -> Jul 4, 5:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 5:01PM EDT until July 4 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 3, 5:03 PM -> Jul 3, 5:15 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 3 at 4:03PM CDT until July 3 at 4:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 3, 5:07 PM -> Jul 3, 5:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 3 at 4:07PM CDT until July 3 at 4:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 3, 5:08 PM -> Jul 3, 5:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 3 at 4:08PM CDT until July 3 at 4:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 3, 5:16 PM -> Jul 3, 8:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 3 at 4:16PM CDT until July 3 at 7:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 3, 5:18 PM -> Jul 3, 5:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 3 at 4:18PM CDT until July 3 at 4:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 3, 5:19 PM -> Jul 3, 5:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 3 at 4:19PM CDT until July 3 at 4:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 3, 5:21 PM -> Jul 3, 6:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 3 at 4:21PM CDT until July 3 at 5:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 3, 5:25 PM -> Jul 3, 5:35 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 3 at 4:25PM CDT until July 3 at 4:30PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 3, 6:57 PM -> Jul 3, 10:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 3 at 5:57PM CDT until July 3 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 3, 7:51 PM -> Jul 4, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 3 at 6:51PM CDT until July 4 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 3, 7:53 PM -> Jul 3, 8:30 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 3 at 6:53PM CDT until July 3 at 7:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 7:55 PM -> Jul 4, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 7:55PM EDT until July 4 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 3, 7:59 PM -> Jul 4, 4:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 3 at 7:59PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 3, 7:59 PM -> Jul 4, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 3 at 7:59PM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
70%

Classic July Heat Precedes Scattered Evening Storms

A sweltering and humid airmass will settle over the Commonwealth on Friday, with high temperatures reaching the mid-90s for most. While much of the day will remain dry and sunny, a weak upper-level disturbance will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening, with the greatest coverage expected in Eastern Kentucky.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in the heat and humidity; moderate confidence in the coverage of evening precipitation due to model disagreement over the strength of the atmospheric cap.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Hot with a Stray Evening Shower
Sunny
93°/ 73°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Sizzling Afternoon Near the River
Sunny
92°/ 72°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Humid and Steamy Friday
Rain
92°/ 72°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Gusty Evening Storms Possible
Rain
92°/ 71°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Intense Heat in the City
Sunny
97°/ 77°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Scattered Sunset Showers
Rain
92°/ 70°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Afternoon Rain Likely
Rain
91°/ 70°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Hazy, Hot, and Humid
Sunny
96°/ 75°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Warm with Evening Showers
Rain
92°/ 73°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Showers Developing Over the Knobs
Rain
91°/ 72°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Hot Valleys and Late Rain
Rain
95°/ 73°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Evening Storms with Gusty Winds
Rain
92°/ 68°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

Convective inhibition (the cap) breaks earlier and more widespread than anticipated, leading to numerous evening thunderstorms with localized damaging wind gusts and rainfall totals exceeding 1.00 inch in parts of Central and Eastern Kentucky.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The mid-level capping inversion remains robust (as suggested by the NAM), keeping most of the state entirely dry and allowing temperatures to spike even higher into the upper 90s without rain-cooled relief.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Capping Conflict

The NAM keeps a strong mid-level cap (700mb inversion) across Western and Central KY, keeping them dry, while GFS and Euro show enough erosion for widespread scattered showers.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

While the NAM often handles the summer cap better, the presence of a distinct shortwave and high surface dewpoints suggests the GFS/Euro solution of at least isolated development is more probable.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILESOUTHWEST PENNYRILELOUISVILLE METRO

The Triple-Digit Duel

The GFS is aggressively forecasting triple-digit heat (101°F) in the Northeast, whereas the NAM and Euro are more conservative in the mid-90s.

GFS
VS
NAM
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

GFS has a known warm bias in the NE KY valleys during high-pressure setups; the Euro's handling of boundary layer mixing and cloud cover is typically more reliable.

Affected Regions
NORTHEAST KYNORTHERN KY

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A deep, warm-core environment is present with nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates in the lower levels. A weak capping inversion is noted around 700mb in the west, but it is expected to erode by late afternoon.

Thermal Boundary

The main synoptic frontal boundary remains well north of the state, stalled near the Great Lakes. No surface boundaries will move through Kentucky.

Diurnal Trend

Strongly diurnal curve with temperatures rising rapidly through the morning. Non-diurnal cooling is expected in the evening where convective rain occurs.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

None. Wind shifts will be localized to convective outflows rather than a synoptic front.

Jet Stream Support

A 100kt jet at 250mb provides broad divergence and synoptic-scale lift, though it lacks a concentrated jet streak for organized severe weather.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough is expected to pivot through the state between 18z and 03z, providing the primary spark for storm development.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is initially dry at mid-levels in the west (virga risk), but becomes increasingly saturated in the east as the day progresses.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be convective in nature, characterized by sudden bursts and localized gusty winds, transitioning to a brief stratiform period before ending.

Flooding Context

Ground conditions are relatively dry; no flooding is expected despite localized heavy downpours.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

N/A - Surface and mid-level temperatures are well above freezing.

Crystal Habit

N/A

Road Impact

None. Heat stress on road surfaces is a more significant concern than moisture impacts.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

89% Illumination
Moonrise
11:17 PM
Moonset
10:00 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:40 AM
Sunset
9:19 PM
Civil Dawn
6:09 AM
Civil Dusk
9:49 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:32 AM
Sunset
9:15 PM
Civil Dawn
6:01 AM
Civil Dusk
9:46 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:36 AM
Sunset
9:14 PM
Civil Dawn
6:05 AM
Civil Dusk
9:44 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:32 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
6:01 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:25 AM
Sunset
9:11 PM
Civil Dawn
5:54 AM
Civil Dusk
9:42 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:27 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:56 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:24 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:53 AM
Civil Dusk
9:33 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:17 AM
Sunset
9:08 PM
Civil Dawn
5:45 AM
Civil Dusk
9:40 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:21 AM
Sunset
9:05 PM
Civil Dawn
5:49 AM
Civil Dusk
9:36 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:21 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:50 AM
Civil Dusk
9:35 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:12 AM
Sunset
8:59 PM
Civil Dawn
5:40 AM
Civil Dusk
9:31 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:18 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
5:47 AM
Civil Dusk
9:28 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.