kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Wed, Jul 1
Fri, Jul 3
Forecast For

Thursday, July 2

Updated Jul 1, 7:10 PM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Warning

Jul 1, 10:12 AM -> Jul 2, 12:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued July 1 at 9:12AM CDT until July 3 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 1, 11:44 AM -> Jul 2, 3:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 1 at 10:44AM CDT until July 4 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jul 1, 11:51 AM -> Jul 1, 8:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued July 1 at 10:51AM CDT until July 1 at 7:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 12:13 PM -> Jul 2, 12:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 12:13PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 12:31 PM -> Jul 1, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 12:31PM EDT until July 3 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 2:24 PM -> Jul 2, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 2:24PM EDT until July 3 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 2:35 PM -> Jul 2, 1:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 2:35PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 2:40 PM -> Jul 2, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 1:40PM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Jul 1, 6:29 PM -> Jul 2, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued July 1 at 5:29PM CDT until July 3 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 8:56 PM -> Jul 2, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 8:56PM EDT until July 3 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Warning

Jul 1, 9:13 PM -> Jul 2, 11:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued July 1 at 8:13PM CDT until July 3 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 10:34 PM -> Jul 2, 7:45 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 10:34PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 11:42 PM -> Jul 2, 2:30 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 11:42PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 2:14 AM -> Jul 2, 1:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 2:14AM EDT until July 3 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 4:12 AM -> Jul 2, 6:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 4:12AM EDT until July 3 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 4:33 AM -> Jul 2, 4:45 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 3:33AM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 4:44 AM -> Jul 2, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 4:44AM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 2, 6:27 AM -> Jul 2, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 2 at 6:27AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jul 2, 6:40 AM -> Jul 2, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 2 at 6:40AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 2, 11:16 AM -> Jul 3, 8:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 2 at 10:16AM CDT until July 4 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 11:16 AM -> Jul 3, 8:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 10:16AM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 2, 11:34 AM -> Jul 3, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 2 at 11:34AM EDT until July 4 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 11:34 AM -> Jul 3, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 11:34AM EDT until July 3 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 12:21 PM -> Jul 2, 8:30 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 12:21PM EDT until July 3 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 12:34 PM -> Jul 3, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 12:34PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 2, 2:48 PM -> Jul 3, 12:30 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 2 at 2:48PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 2, 2:52 PM -> Jul 2, 3:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 2 at 1:52PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Air Quality Alert

Jul 2, 3:23 PM -> Jul 3, 1:00 AM
Unknown Severity

Air Quality Alert issued July 2 at 3:23PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Jul 2, 3:27 PM -> Jul 2, 6:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 2 at 2:27PM CDT until July 2 at 5:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Confidence
85%

Sultry July Heat with Isolated Afternoon Showers

Kentucky will face a typical mid-summer pattern this Thursday as high heat and humidity settle across the Commonwealth. Most regions will remain dry under a strong ridge, but a weak mid-level shortwave and orographic lift will trigger isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the western river basins and the eastern mountains.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Strong model agreement on the thermal profile and ridge position; the only uncertainty lies in the exact timing and coverage of the pulse-convection in the afternoon.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Hot and Muggy with Passing Showers
Rain
93°/ 77°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Sizzling Afternoon Heat
Sunny
94°/ 75°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Sultry with Afternoon Sprinkles
Rain
93°/ 74°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Steamy with Pop-up Rain
Rain
92°/ 75°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Intense Urban Heat
Sunny
96°/ 77°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Hot Sun and Passing Clouds
Sunny
92°/ 74°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Dry and Humid Lake Day
Sunny
93°/ 73°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Blistering Northern Heat
Sunny
95°/ 76°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Typical July Sizzler
Sunny
92°/ 75°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Afternoon Mountain Sprinkles
Rain
90°/ 73°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Searing Heat in the Valley
Sunny
96°/ 74°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Showers Likely in the Mountains
Rain
91°/ 73°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the mid-level cap is weaker than modeled and moisture levels maximize, scattered pulse thunderstorms could develop statewide, offering localized relief from the heat but bringing a risk of brief, heavy downpours and gusty winds.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the 'Heat Dome' subsidence wins out, convective inhibition will prevent any rain from reaching the ground, resulting in a completely dry, blistering day with temperatures potentially exceeding 100°F in urban centers.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Western Moisture Plume

The GFS and Euro show a plume of moisture and weak lift moving into Western KY, supporting rain. The NAM remains aggressively dry in the west, keeping the moisture suppressed further south in Tennessee.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

The ECMWF (Euro) typically handles the progression of weak, decaying shortwaves through a ridge better than the NAM, which often suffers from a dry bias in high-pressure regimes.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILESOUTHWEST PENNYRILEBARREN RIVER

The Northeast Heat Spike

The GFS is forecasting triple-digit heat (101°F) in the Ashland area, while the NAM and Euro suggest a more modest (but still hot) 94-96°F.

GFS
VS
NAM
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

The GFS frequently overestimates maximum temperatures in the narrow valleys of Northeast KY during high-amplitude ridging. A blend toward the NAM/Euro consensus is more realistic.

Affected Regions
NORTHEAST KY

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A standard summer adiabatic profile is in place with steep low-level lapse rates (7.5 C/km). A weak inversion near 700mb may act as a cap for deeper convection in Central KY.

Thermal Boundary

No major surface boundaries; however, a low-level moisture gradient is oriented along the I-65 corridor, separating dew points in the low 70s (west) from upper 60s (east).

Diurnal Trend

Strongly diurnal. Temperatures will rise rapidly after 13Z, peaking around 20Z-21Z, with slow nocturnal cooling due to high boundary layer moisture.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

None. The environment is entirely airmass-driven with no surface frontal triggers.

Jet Stream Support

Poor support. Kentucky is located in the right exit region of a very weak jet streak well to the north, providing negligible synoptic lift.

Energy Status

Weak energy. Small vorticity pulses (0.00015 s-1) are the primary drivers for any shower activity.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The lower column is saturated below 850mb, but mid-levels are relatively dry, posing a virga risk for the lightest showers.

Precipitation Character

Primarily scattered, low-intensity stratiform rain and drizzle in the west, with more convective, pulse-like showers in the mountain regions.

Flooding Context

No flooding risk. Precipitable water is high, but storm motion and duration will be insufficient for hydrologic concerns.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

94% Illumination
Moonrise
10:47 PM
Moonset
8:57 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:39 AM
Sunset
9:19 PM
Civil Dawn
6:09 AM
Civil Dusk
9:50 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:31 AM
Sunset
9:15 PM
Civil Dawn
6:00 AM
Civil Dusk
9:46 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:35 AM
Sunset
9:14 PM
Civil Dawn
6:05 AM
Civil Dusk
9:44 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:31 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
6:00 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:24 AM
Sunset
9:11 PM
Civil Dawn
5:53 AM
Civil Dusk
9:42 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:27 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:55 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:23 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:53 AM
Civil Dusk
9:34 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:17 AM
Sunset
9:08 PM
Civil Dawn
5:45 AM
Civil Dusk
9:40 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:20 AM
Sunset
9:05 PM
Civil Dawn
5:49 AM
Civil Dusk
9:37 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:20 AM
Sunset
9:04 PM
Civil Dawn
5:49 AM
Civil Dusk
9:35 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:11 AM
Sunset
8:59 PM
Civil Dawn
5:40 AM
Civil Dusk
9:31 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:17 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
5:46 AM
Civil Dusk
9:29 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.