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Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Tue, Jun 30
Thu, Jul 2
Forecast For

Wednesday, July 1

Updated Jul 1, 7:17 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Warning

Jun 30, 8:47 AM -> Jul 1, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 30 at 8:47AM EDT until July 1 at 2:49PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 30, 11:04 AM -> Jul 1, 7:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 30 at 10:04AM CDT until July 1 at 6:15AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 30, 11:04 AM -> Jul 1, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 30 at 10:04AM CDT until July 1 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 30, 11:04 AM -> Jul 1, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 30 at 10:04AM CDT until July 2 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 30, 11:04 AM -> Jul 1, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 30 at 10:04AM CDT until July 3 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 12:05 PM -> Jul 1, 12:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 12:05PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 12:15 PM -> Jul 1, 12:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 12:15PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 12:22 PM -> Jul 1, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 11:22AM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 2:18 PM -> Jul 1, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 2:18PM EDT until July 3 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 30, 9:48 PM -> Jul 1, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 30 at 8:48PM CDT until July 1 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 30, 9:52 PM -> Jul 1, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 30 at 8:52PM CDT until July 2 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 30, 9:53 PM -> Jul 1, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 30 at 9:53PM EDT until July 1 at 3:06PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 11:41 PM -> Jul 1, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 11:41PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 2:43 AM -> Jul 1, 1:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 2:43AM EDT until July 3 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 4:20 AM -> Jul 1, 6:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 4:20AM EDT until July 3 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 4:33 AM -> Jul 1, 5:15 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 3:33AM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 4:43 AM -> Jul 1, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 4:43AM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 1, 5:06 AM -> Jul 1, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 1 at 5:06AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jul 1, 6:14 AM -> Jul 1, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 1 at 6:14AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Warning

Jul 1, 10:12 AM -> Jul 2, 12:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued July 1 at 9:12AM CDT until July 3 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 1, 11:44 AM -> Jul 2, 3:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 1 at 10:44AM CDT until July 4 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jul 1, 11:51 AM -> Jul 1, 8:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued July 1 at 10:51AM CDT until July 1 at 7:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 12:13 PM -> Jul 2, 12:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 12:13PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 12:31 PM -> Jul 1, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 12:31PM EDT until July 3 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 2:24 PM -> Jul 2, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 2:24PM EDT until July 3 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 2:35 PM -> Jul 2, 1:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 2:35PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 1, 2:40 PM -> Jul 2, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 1 at 1:40PM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Jul 1, 6:29 PM -> Jul 2, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued July 1 at 5:29PM CDT until July 3 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Confidence
85%

Intense July Heat Grips Kentucky; Morning Showers West

A powerful high-pressure ridge will dominate the Commonwealth today, ushering in significant summer heat with temperatures reaching the mid-to-upper 90s. While most of the state remains dry, a weak atmospheric ripple will bring scattered light rain to western and northern regions during the morning hours.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence exists for the heat wave and the overall dry pattern for 80% of the state. Confidence is lower regarding the exact timing and coverage of the light morning rain showers in the west.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Morning Showers, Then Steamy
Rain
92°/ 74°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Brief Morning Rain
Rain
92°/ 73°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Showers Clearing for Afternoon Heat
Rain
93°/ 75°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Hot with Evening Gusts
Sunny
93°/ 74°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Urban Heat and Morning Clouds
Cloudy
95°/ 75°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Hot and Dry July Day
Sunny
91°/ 73°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Sizzling Heat Near the Water
Sunny
94°/ 72°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Intense Heat; Hazy Morning
Sunny
96°/ 73°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Sunny Skies and High Humidity
Sunny
93°/ 73°

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Building Heat and Sunny
Sunny
94°/ 72°

Northeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Near Record Heat Likely
Sunny
99°/ 73°

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Searing Heat in the Valleys
Sunny
96°/ 72°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the morning cloud cover breaks earlier than expected and the 850mb thermal ridge (+25C) fully mixes to the surface, multiple locations in Northeast Kentucky and the urban corridors could see temperatures reach 100-101°F.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the morning shortwave produces more widespread cloud debris that lingers into the afternoon, high temperatures may be held in the lower 90s, particularly for regions west of I-65.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

Northeast Heat Peak

GFS is aggressively forecasting 100F for the Ashland area, while the Euro remains more conservative in the low 90s.

GFS
VS
EURO
Why GFS Wins

Under high-pressure subsidence, valley locations in Northeast KY often exceed standard model guidance due to compressional heating. GFS handles this terrain-driven heat better in this specific setup.

Affected Regions
NORTHEAST KY

The Ridge vs. The Ripple

Models disagree on whether light morning rain can survive the intense subsidence of the 594dm ridge. GFS remains bone dry, while NAM and Euro suggest a cluster of light showers for the West and North.

GFS
VS
NAM
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

The NAM and Euro agree on the presence of the shortwave, but NAM technical soundings suggest a high virga risk. A blend is used to account for light rain reaching the ground in the West, while keeping the Bluegrass mostly dry.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILELOUISVILLE METRONORTHERN KY

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A deep, well-mixed boundary layer is present up to 750mb, topped by a subsidence inversion. Lapse rates are near-adiabatic in the lowest 3km.

Thermal Boundary

The thermal ridge is centered over the Ohio River, with the 850mb +24C isotherm pushing into Northern Kentucky.

Diurnal Trend

Strictly diurnal heating curve with rapid temperature spikes expected between 10 AM and 3 PM as morning clouds dissipate.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No front is present. Only a weak moisture discontinuity/pre-frontal trough is noted in the western Pennyrile.

Jet Stream Support

Kentucky is in the right-exit region of a 75kt zonal jet over the Great Lakes, providing weak subsidence overall.

Energy Status

A minor shortwave ripple is pivoting through the mid-level flow, providing transient vorticity to the northern tier.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is mostly dry; dewpoint depressions at 850mb exceed 15F, creating a high virga risk for the Bluegrass.

Precipitation Character

Showers will be stratiform and light in the morning, transitioning to hazy, sunny skies by afternoon.

Flooding Context

No flooding risk. High evaporation rates will continue to dry surface soils.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

Not applicable; thermal profile is entirely above freezing.

Crystal Habit

Not applicable.

Road Impact

Not applicable.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

98% Illumination
Moonrise
10:12 PM
Moonset
7:54 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:39 AM
Sunset
9:19 PM
Civil Dawn
6:08 AM
Civil Dusk
9:50 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:31 AM
Sunset
9:15 PM
Civil Dawn
6:00 AM
Civil Dusk
9:46 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:35 AM
Sunset
9:14 PM
Civil Dawn
6:04 AM
Civil Dusk
9:44 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:31 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
6:00 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:24 AM
Sunset
9:11 PM
Civil Dawn
5:53 AM
Civil Dusk
9:43 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:26 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:55 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:23 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:52 AM
Civil Dusk
9:34 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:16 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
5:44 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:20 AM
Sunset
9:05 PM
Civil Dawn
5:48 AM
Civil Dusk
9:37 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:20 AM
Sunset
9:04 PM
Civil Dawn
5:49 AM
Civil Dusk
9:35 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:11 AM
Sunset
8:59 PM
Civil Dawn
5:39 AM
Civil Dusk
9:31 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:17 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
5:46 AM
Civil Dusk
9:29 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.