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Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Mon, Jun 29
Wed, Jul 1
Forecast For

Tuesday, June 30

Updated Jun 30, 7:18 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 7:38 AM -> Jun 30, 3:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 6:38AM CDT until July 1 at 2:06AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 9:41 AM -> Jun 30, 3:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 9:41AM EDT until July 1 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 11:05 AM -> Jun 30, 11:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 10:05AM CDT until June 30 at 9:48AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 11:05 AM -> Jun 30, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 10:05AM CDT until July 1 at 6:04PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 11:05 AM -> Jun 30, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 10:05AM CDT until July 1 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 11:05 AM -> Jun 30, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 10:05AM CDT until July 1 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 29, 11:47 AM -> Jun 30, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 29 at 11:47AM EDT until July 2 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 29, 12:00 PM -> Jun 30, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 29 at 12:00PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 29, 12:00 PM -> Jun 30, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 29 at 12:00PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 29, 12:12 PM -> Jun 30, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 29 at 12:12PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 29, 12:12 PM -> Jun 30, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 29 at 12:12PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 29, 12:12 PM -> Jun 30, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 29 at 12:12PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 29, 12:34 PM -> Jun 29, 8:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 29 at 12:34PM EDT until July 3 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Heat Advisory

Jun 29, 2:18 PM -> Jun 30, 2:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 29 at 2:18PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Heat Advisory

Jun 29, 2:18 PM -> Jun 30, 2:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 29 at 2:18PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 29, 2:19 PM -> Jun 30, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 29 at 1:19PM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 5:22 PM -> Jun 30, 11:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 4:22PM CDT until June 30 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 5:22 PM -> Jun 30, 11:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 4:22PM CDT until July 2 at 4:36AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 5:23 PM -> Jun 30, 11:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 4:23PM CDT until July 3 at 4:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 5:24 PM -> Jun 30, 11:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 4:24PM CDT until July 2 at 7:01AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 29, 6:49 PM -> Jun 30, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 29 at 6:49PM EDT until July 3 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 9:18 PM -> Jun 30, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 9:18PM EDT until July 1 at 1:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 9:22 PM -> Jun 30, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 8:22PM CDT until July 2 at 4:30AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 9:23 PM -> Jun 30, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 8:23PM CDT until June 30 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 9:24 PM -> Jun 30, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 8:24PM CDT until July 4 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 9:24 PM -> Jun 30, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 8:24PM CDT until July 3 at 3:18PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 9:25 PM -> Jun 30, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 8:25PM CDT until July 1 at 1:10AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 29, 9:37 PM -> Jun 30, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 29 at 8:37PM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 12:43 AM -> Jun 30, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 12:43AM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 12:43 AM -> Jun 30, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 12:43AM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 1:09 AM -> Jun 30, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 1:09AM EDT until July 3 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 2:40 AM -> Jun 30, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 2:40AM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 2:40 AM -> Jun 30, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 2:40AM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 2:40 AM -> Jun 30, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 2:40AM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 4:15 AM -> Jun 30, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 4:15AM EDT until July 2 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 5:17 AM -> Jun 30, 5:15 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 4:17AM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 30, 5:28 AM -> Jun 30, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 30 at 5:28AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jun 30, 5:35 AM -> Jun 30, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 30 at 5:35AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Warning

Jun 30, 8:47 AM -> Jul 1, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 30 at 8:47AM EDT until July 1 at 2:49PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 30, 11:04 AM -> Jul 1, 7:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 30 at 10:04AM CDT until July 1 at 6:15AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 30, 11:04 AM -> Jul 1, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 30 at 10:04AM CDT until July 1 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 30, 11:04 AM -> Jul 1, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 30 at 10:04AM CDT until July 2 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 30, 11:04 AM -> Jul 1, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 30 at 10:04AM CDT until July 3 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 11:53 AM -> Jun 30, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 11:53AM EDT until July 3 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 12:05 PM -> Jul 1, 12:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 12:05PM EDT until July 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 12:15 PM -> Jul 1, 12:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 12:15PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 12:22 PM -> Jul 1, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 11:22AM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 30, 2:18 PM -> Jul 1, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 30 at 2:18PM EDT until July 3 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Confidence
70%

Heat Wave Deepens as Summer Ridge Asserts Control

A powerful high-pressure ridge will dominate the region, bringing intense heat and high humidity to the Commonwealth. While a weak disturbance may trigger isolated morning sprinkles in the north and west, the primary story will be afternoon temperatures climbing into the mid-90s with stifling heat indices.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence exists for the heat and humidity levels. However, confidence is lower regarding the morning precipitation coverage, as models disagree on whether a weak disturbance can overcome dry air in the mid-levels.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Blistering Sun and High Heat
Sunny
94°/ 74°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Morning Dampness, Steamy Afternoon
Rain
92°/ 75°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Clear and Humid
Sunny
92°/ 74°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Sun Bakes the Barren River
Sunny
91°/ 75°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Urban Heat Intensifies
Sunny
92°/ 76°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Typical Hot Summer Day
Sunny
90°/ 75°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Perfect Lake Weather
Sunny
91°/ 74°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Clouds Give Way to Heat
Cloudy
91°/ 76°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Sunny and Hot for Lexington
Sunny
90°/ 74°

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Hot Sunshine in the Knobs
Sunny
91°/ 73°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Intense Valley Heat
Sunny
96°/ 74°

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Mountain Heatwave Continues
Sunny
93°/ 72°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The GFS solution verifies, where the heat ridge maximizes subsidence and valley compression, pushing temperatures in Northeast Kentucky to 99-100°F and triple-digit heat indices statewide.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The Euro solution verifies, where a thicker deck of morning clouds and light rain showers persists through midday, delaying the onset of peak heating and keeping afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90°F.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Triple Digit Duel

GFS is forecasting an extreme high of 99°F in the Northeast Kentucky valleys, while the NAM and Euro suggest a more modest 91-93°F.

GFS
VS
NAM
Why BLEND Wins

While GFS often over-cranks valley heating under ridges, the synoptic setup supports temperatures well above seasonal norms. A blend captures the high-end potential without relying on an outlier 99-degree reading.

Affected Regions
NORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

The Morning Moisture Mystery

The Euro is aggressive with 80% PoPs for light rain across Central and Eastern KY, while the GFS remains bone-dry. The NAM sits in the middle, showing saturation only in the far Northwest.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

The NAM correctly identifies the shallow nature of the saturation (below 850mb) and the significant mid-level dry air, which will likely evaporate most precipitation before it reaches the ground, favoring a 'sprinkle/trace' forecast over the Euro's measurable rain.

Affected Regions
NORTHWEST PENNYRILELOUISVILLE METRONORTHERN KYBLUEGRASS CORE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A maritime tropical airmass is in place with 850mb temperatures near 18-20C. The profile is characterized by a deep, well-mixed boundary layer and a subsidence inversion around 700mb.

Thermal Boundary

The thermal ridge axis is currently building over the Mississippi River and will push into Western Kentucky by midday.

Diurnal Trend

Standard diurnal heating curve expected. Temperatures will rise rapidly after 14Z as morning clouds/haze dissipate, peaking around 21Z-22Z.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

None. The region remains under a broad 1020mb surface high-pressure system.

Jet Stream Support

The jet stream is positioned near the 45th parallel, providing no meaningful lift or divergence over the Ohio Valley.

Energy Status

A weak shortwave is noted at 700mb-500mb, but its impact is limited by the lack of surface-based or elevated instability.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The lower levels (1000-850mb) are saturated in the north and west, but the mid-levels are extremely dry, creating a high risk for virga.

Precipitation Character

Any precipitation that reaches the surface will be light, stratiform drizzle or isolated sprinkles with no convective elements.

Flooding Context

No hydrologic risk. High evapotranspiration rates and trace precipitation will keep soils stable.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

Not applicable; thermal profiles are entirely above freezing through 15,000ft.

Crystal Habit

Not applicable.

Road Impact

Not applicable.

Severe Risk

Instability & Shear

Atmospheric ingredients required for severe thunderstorms, including available fuel (CAPE) and storm organization (shear).

Shear Analysis

Deep layer shear is minimal under the ridge, providing no organization for storms.

Instability Context

CAPE values are near 0 J/kg due to the capping subsidence inversion and dry mid-levels.

Primary Threat

None.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Full Moon

100% Illumination
Moonrise
9:32 PM
Moonset
6:54 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:38 AM
Sunset
9:19 PM
Civil Dawn
6:08 AM
Civil Dusk
9:50 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:30 AM
Sunset
9:15 PM
Civil Dawn
5:59 AM
Civil Dusk
9:46 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:35 AM
Sunset
9:14 PM
Civil Dawn
6:04 AM
Civil Dusk
9:45 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:30 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
6:00 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:24 AM
Sunset
9:11 PM
Civil Dawn
5:52 AM
Civil Dusk
9:43 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:26 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:54 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:22 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:52 AM
Civil Dusk
9:34 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:16 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
5:44 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:19 AM
Sunset
9:05 PM
Civil Dawn
5:48 AM
Civil Dusk
9:37 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:19 AM
Sunset
9:04 PM
Civil Dawn
5:48 AM
Civil Dusk
9:35 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:10 AM
Sunset
8:59 PM
Civil Dawn
5:39 AM
Civil Dusk
9:31 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:16 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
5:45 AM
Civil Dusk
9:29 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.