kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sun, Jun 28
Tue, Jun 30
Forecast For

Monday, June 29

Updated Jun 28, 7:08 PM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Warning

Jun 28, 11:08 AM -> Jun 29, 5:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 28 at 10:08AM CDT until June 29 at 5:12AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 28, 11:14 AM -> Jun 29, 5:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 28 at 11:14AM EDT until July 1 at 3:25AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 28, 12:00 PM -> Jun 29, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 28 at 11:00AM CDT until June 30 at 7:18AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 28, 12:09 PM -> Jun 29, 6:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 28 at 11:09AM CDT until June 30 at 1:53PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 28, 12:09 PM -> Jun 29, 6:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 28 at 11:09AM CDT until June 30 at 11:37PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 28, 12:09 PM -> Jun 29, 6:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 28 at 11:09AM CDT until July 1 at 5:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 28, 12:28 PM -> Jun 29, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 28 at 11:28AM CDT until July 2 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 28, 12:28 PM -> Jun 29, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 28 at 11:28AM CDT until June 28 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Jun 28, 12:49 PM -> Jun 29, 5:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 28 at 11:49AM CDT until June 29 at 4:06AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 28, 1:48 PM -> Jun 29, 3:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 28 at 1:48PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Heat Advisory

Jun 28, 1:48 PM -> Jun 29, 3:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 28 at 1:48PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Warning

Jun 28, 1:59 PM -> Jun 28, 11:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 28 at 12:59PM CDT until June 28 at 10:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 28, 3:11 PM -> Jun 29, 2:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 28 at 3:11PM EDT until June 29 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Warning

Jun 28, 3:13 PM -> Jun 29, 9:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 28 at 2:13PM CDT until June 29 at 9:17PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 28, 4:16 PM -> Jun 29, 7:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 28 at 3:16PM CDT until July 2 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 28, 4:16 PM -> Jun 29, 7:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 28 at 3:16PM CDT until June 28 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 28, 4:16 PM -> Jun 29, 7:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 28 at 3:16PM CDT until July 2 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 29, 2:49 AM -> Jun 29, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 29 at 1:49AM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 7:38 AM -> Jun 30, 3:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 6:38AM CDT until July 1 at 2:06AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 29, 9:00 AM -> Jun 29, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 29 at 9:00AM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Heat Advisory

Jun 29, 9:00 AM -> Jun 29, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 29 at 9:00AM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Heat Advisory

Jun 29, 9:00 AM -> Jun 29, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 29 at 9:00AM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 9:41 AM -> Jun 30, 3:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 9:41AM EDT until July 1 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 11:05 AM -> Jun 30, 11:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 10:05AM CDT until June 30 at 9:48AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 11:05 AM -> Jun 30, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 10:05AM CDT until July 1 at 6:04PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 11:05 AM -> Jun 30, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 10:05AM CDT until July 1 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 11:05 AM -> Jun 30, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 10:05AM CDT until July 1 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 29, 11:47 AM -> Jun 30, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 29 at 11:47AM EDT until July 2 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 29, 12:00 PM -> Jun 29, 12:15 PM
Moderate Severity

The Heat Advisory has been replaced. Please see the latest information from NWS Jackson KY on this developing situation.

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 29, 12:00 PM -> Jun 30, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 29 at 12:00PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 29, 12:00 PM -> Jun 30, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 29 at 12:00PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 29, 12:12 PM -> Jun 30, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 29 at 12:12PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 29, 12:12 PM -> Jun 30, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 29 at 12:12PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 29, 12:12 PM -> Jun 30, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 29 at 12:12PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 29, 12:34 PM -> Jun 29, 8:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 29 at 12:34PM EDT until July 3 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Heat Advisory

Jun 29, 2:18 PM -> Jun 30, 2:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 29 at 2:18PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Heat Advisory

Jun 29, 2:18 PM -> Jun 30, 2:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 29 at 2:18PM EDT until July 2 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Jun 29, 2:19 PM -> Jun 30, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued June 29 at 1:19PM CDT until July 3 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 5:22 PM -> Jun 30, 11:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 4:22PM CDT until June 30 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 5:22 PM -> Jun 30, 11:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 4:22PM CDT until July 2 at 4:36AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 5:23 PM -> Jun 30, 11:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 4:23PM CDT until July 3 at 4:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 29, 5:24 PM -> Jun 30, 11:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 29 at 4:24PM CDT until July 2 at 7:01AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 29, 6:49 PM -> Jun 30, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 29 at 6:49PM EDT until July 3 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Confidence
85%

Western Sizzler Meets Eastern Sprinkles

A sharp contrast will define the Commonwealth's weather as a powerful summer ridge centers over the Mississippi River, while weak atmospheric ripples track across Eastern Kentucky. Expect searing heat and high humidity in the west, while the eastern half of the state contends with persistent cloud cover and periodic light rain showers.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence exists for the 90-degree heat in the west. Confidence is lower regarding the exact rainfall totals in the east due to the high likelihood of virga (evaporating rain) given the dry low-level air.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Sizzling Sun and Hot Winds
Sunny
94°/ 74°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Humid and Bright
Sunny
92°/ 78°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Oppressive Afternoon Clouds
Cloudy
92°/ 78°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Stray Morning Drizzle, Warm Afternoon
Rain
90°/ 76°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Urban Heat with Morning Clouds
Sunny
93°/ 78°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Mostly Sunny and Muggy
Sunny
89°/ 76°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Damp Start for the Lake
Rain
89°/ 75°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Intermittent Showers Expected
Rain
90°/ 76°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Cloudy with Light Passing Rain
Rain
88°/ 76°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Frequent Light Rain and Overcast
Rain
86°/ 74°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Muggy Skies and Heat
Cloudy
92°/ 75°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Morning Rain in the Mountains
Rain
86°/ 75°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The eastern shortwave energy arrives stronger than modeled, providing enough mechanical lift to generate a widespread 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain for the Bluegrass and Coalfields, offering significant relief from the heat.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The dry air from the western ridge nudges further east, causing the light rain to evaporate as virga before reaching the ground. This would result in a hotter, drier day for all regions with only high-based clouds to show for the disturbance.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Ashland Heat Spike

GFS MOS guidance is aggressive with a 96 degree high in the Northeast, citing valley compression. The NAM remains much cooler at 88 degrees due to projected cloud debris from the eastern shortwaves.

GFS
VS
NAM
Why BLEND Wins

While the GFS likely overestimates the heating in a moist environment, the NAM is likely too pessimistic with cloud cover. A compromise near 92 degrees accounts for the high dewpoints limiting the absolute ceiling for temperature.

Affected Regions
NORTHEAST KY

The Phantom Precip Paradox

The GFS is signaling very high probabilities of precipitation (80%) for the eastern half of the state but producing almost no measurable liquid (0.01 inches). The NAM is more aggressive with actual rainfall totals, showing nearly 0.20 inches in the same areas.

NAM
VS
GFS
Why NAM Wins

The NAM's higher resolution better captures the moisture convergence along the eastern terrain and the thermal boundary. GFS is likely suffering from its known bias of 'smearing' light precip over too large an area without sufficient moisture depth.

Affected Regions
NORTHERN KYBLUEGRASS COREBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLSNORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A classic summer profile with a deeply mixed boundary layer in the west reaching up to 750mb. In the east, the profile is more saturated and nearly pseudo-adiabatic between 850mb and 500mb, limiting the diurnal temperature swing.

Thermal Boundary

A weak theta-e boundary is positioned roughly along a line from Cincinnati to Somerset, separating the hot, dry air mass to the west from the more humid, unsettled air to the east.

Diurnal Trend

A standard diurnal curve is expected, though it will be more pronounced in the west. Elevated overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 70s are expected in the west due to high surface dewpoints and a lack of radiational cooling.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No organized surface front is present. The only 'front' is a weak, moisture-driven trough axis that will slide through the Bluegrass during the afternoon.

Jet Stream Support

The primary jet stream is well to the north, but a 70kt jet streak at 300mb will provide some upper-level divergence over Northern Kentucky, aiding in the development of light rain.

Energy Status

Vorticity is confined to weak, compact shortwaves pivoting through the broad cyclonic flow aloft.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The atmosphere is saturated in the 850-700mb layer across the eastern half of the state. To the west, the column is dry, with dewpoint depressions at the surface exceeding 15 degrees.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be predominantly stratiform and light. The lack of instability (CAPE < 200 J/kg) precludes any significant thunderstorm threat.

Flooding Context

Ground conditions are stable and no hydrologic issues are anticipated given the very light nature of the rainfall.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

N/A

Crystal Habit

N/A

Road Impact

N/A

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Full Moon

100% Illumination
Moonrise
8:45 PM
Moonset
5:57 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:38 AM
Sunset
9:19 PM
Civil Dawn
6:07 AM
Civil Dusk
9:50 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:30 AM
Sunset
9:15 PM
Civil Dawn
5:59 AM
Civil Dusk
9:46 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:34 AM
Sunset
9:14 PM
Civil Dawn
6:04 AM
Civil Dusk
9:45 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:30 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:59 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:23 AM
Sunset
9:11 PM
Civil Dawn
5:52 AM
Civil Dusk
9:43 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:25 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:54 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:22 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:51 AM
Civil Dusk
9:34 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:16 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
5:43 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:19 AM
Sunset
9:06 PM
Civil Dawn
5:47 AM
Civil Dusk
9:37 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:19 AM
Sunset
9:04 PM
Civil Dawn
5:48 AM
Civil Dusk
9:35 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:10 AM
Sunset
8:59 PM
Civil Dawn
5:38 AM
Civil Dusk
9:31 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:16 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
5:45 AM
Civil Dusk
9:29 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.