kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Fri, Jun 26
Sun, Jun 28
Forecast For

Saturday, June 27

Updated Jun 27, 7:16 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 1:39 PM -> Jun 26, 9:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 1:39PM EDT until June 27 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 2:17 PM -> Jun 27, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 1:17PM CDT until June 28 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 2:17 PM -> Jun 27, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 1:17PM CDT until June 27 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 3:03 PM -> Jun 27, 12:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 3:03PM EDT until June 27 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 3:03 PM -> Jun 27, 12:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 3:03PM EDT until June 27 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 3:10 PM -> Jun 27, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 2:10PM CDT until June 28 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Tornado Watch

Jun 26, 4:57 PM -> Jun 26, 11:00 PM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued June 26 at 3:57PM CDT until June 26 at 10:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 26, 5:10 PM -> Jun 26, 11:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 26 at 4:10PM CDT until June 26 at 10:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 26, 6:05 PM -> Jun 27, 12:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 26 at 5:05PM CDT until June 26 at 11:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 9:31 PM -> Jun 27, 5:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 9:31PM EDT until June 27 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 12:23 AM -> Jun 27, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 11:23PM CDT until June 28 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 2:52 AM -> Jun 27, 11:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 27 at 2:52AM EDT until June 27 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 2:58 AM -> Jun 27, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 27 at 2:58AM EDT until June 27 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 2:58 AM -> Jun 27, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 27 at 2:58AM EDT until June 28 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 3:05 AM -> Jun 27, 12:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 27 at 3:05AM EDT until June 27 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 3:05 AM -> Jun 27, 12:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 27 at 3:05AM EDT until June 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 3:28 AM -> Jun 27, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 3:28AM EDT until June 27 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 5:17 AM -> Jun 27, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 27 at 5:17AM EDT until June 27 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 6:38 AM -> Jun 27, 10:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 6:38AM EDT until June 27 at 10:30AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 6:47 AM -> Jun 27, 10:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 6:47AM EDT until June 27 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 6:54 AM -> Jun 27, 10:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 6:54AM EDT until June 27 at 10:45AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 7:54 AM -> Jun 27, 10:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 7:54AM EDT until June 27 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 8:04 AM -> Jun 27, 11:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 8:04AM EDT until June 27 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 8:08 AM -> Jun 27, 11:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 8:08AM EDT until June 27 at 11:15AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 8:16 AM -> Jun 27, 10:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 8:16AM EDT until June 27 at 10:30AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 8:43 AM -> Jun 27, 11:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 8:43AM EDT until June 27 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 27, 8:51 AM -> Jun 27, 12:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 27 at 8:51AM EDT until June 27 at 12:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 27, 8:58 AM -> Jun 27, 12:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 27 at 7:58AM CDT until June 27 at 11:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 27, 9:11 AM -> Jun 27, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 27 at 9:11AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 27, 9:30 AM -> Jun 27, 1:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 27 at 9:30AM EDT until June 27 at 1:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 9:44 AM -> Jun 27, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 9:44AM EDT until June 27 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 9:48 AM -> Jun 27, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 9:48AM EDT until June 27 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 9:51 AM -> Jun 27, 1:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 9:51AM EDT until June 27 at 1:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 10:18 AM -> Jun 27, 1:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 10:18AM EDT until June 27 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 10:27 AM -> Jun 27, 12:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 10:27AM EDT until June 27 at 12:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 10:41 AM -> Jun 27, 12:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 10:41AM EDT until June 27 at 12:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 10:42 AM -> Jun 27, 1:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 10:42AM EDT until June 27 at 1:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 10:45 AM -> Jun 27, 4:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 10:45AM EDT until June 27 at 4:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 10:53 AM -> Jun 27, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 10:53AM EDT until June 27 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 10:56 AM -> Jun 27, 1:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 10:56AM EDT until June 27 at 1:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 10:57 AM -> Jun 27, 1:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 10:57AM EDT until June 27 at 1:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 10:59 AM -> Jun 27, 1:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 10:59AM EDT until June 27 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 10:59 AM -> Jun 27, 2:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 9:59AM CDT until June 27 at 1:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 27, 11:06 AM -> Jun 27, 2:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 27 at 11:06AM EDT until June 27 at 2:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 11:12 AM -> Jun 27, 2:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 10:12AM CDT until June 27 at 1:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 27, 11:29 AM -> Jun 27, 12:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 27 at 11:29AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 11:29 AM -> Jun 27, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 11:29AM EDT until June 27 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 11:42 AM -> Jun 27, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 11:42AM EDT until June 27 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 11:44 AM -> Jun 27, 12:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 11:44AM EDT until June 27 at 12:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 11:44 AM -> Jun 28, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 27 at 10:44AM CDT until June 28 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 11:45 AM -> Jun 27, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 11:45AM EDT until June 27 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 27, 11:53 AM -> Jun 27, 3:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 27 at 10:53AM CDT until June 27 at 2:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 11:54 AM -> Jun 27, 2:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 11:54AM EDT until June 27 at 2:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 27, 12:00 PM -> Jun 28, 6:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 27 at 11:00AM CDT until June 28 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Watch

Jun 27, 12:00 PM -> Jun 28, 6:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Watch issued June 27 at 11:00AM CDT until July 2 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 12:04 PM -> Jun 27, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 27 at 12:04PM EDT until June 27 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 12:04 PM -> Jun 27, 8:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 27 at 12:04PM EDT until June 28 at 6:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 12:41 PM -> Jun 27, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 11:41AM CDT until June 27 at 4:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 12:43 PM -> Jun 27, 2:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 12:43PM EDT until June 27 at 2:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 12:46 PM -> Jun 27, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 12:46PM EDT until June 27 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 12:47 PM -> Jun 27, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 12:47PM EDT until June 27 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 27, 12:54 PM -> Jun 27, 3:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 27 at 12:54PM EDT until June 27 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 12:57 PM -> Jun 27, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 27 at 12:57PM EDT until June 27 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 1:27 PM -> Jun 27, 4:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 1:27PM EDT until June 27 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 1:36 PM -> Jun 27, 5:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 1:36PM EDT until June 27 at 5:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 1:49 PM -> Jun 27, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 1:49PM EDT until June 27 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 1:57 PM -> Jun 27, 4:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 1:57PM EDT until June 27 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 1:58 PM -> Jun 27, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 1:58PM EDT until June 27 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jun 27, 1:58 PM -> Jun 27, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued June 27 at 12:58PM CDT until June 27 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 2:01 PM -> Jun 27, 4:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 2:01PM EDT until June 27 at 4:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jun 27, 2:03 PM -> Jun 27, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued June 27 at 2:03PM EDT until June 27 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 27, 2:13 PM -> Jun 27, 3:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 27 at 2:13PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 2:16 PM -> Jun 27, 4:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 2:16PM EDT until June 27 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 27, 2:18 PM -> Jun 27, 5:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 27 at 1:18PM CDT until June 27 at 4:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 27, 2:19 PM -> Jun 27, 2:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 27 at 1:19PM CDT until June 27 at 1:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 2:32 PM -> Jun 27, 4:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 2:32PM EDT until June 27 at 4:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 2:34 PM -> Jun 27, 4:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 2:34PM EDT until June 27 at 4:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 27, 2:36 PM -> Jun 27, 3:15 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 27 at 1:36PM CDT until June 27 at 2:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jun 27, 2:59 PM -> Jun 27, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued June 27 at 1:59PM CDT until June 27 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Jun 27, 3:39 PM -> Jun 28, 9:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 27 at 2:39PM CDT until June 29 at 1:38AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 4:18 PM -> Jun 27, 6:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 4:18PM EDT until June 27 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 27, 4:21 PM -> Jun 27, 7:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 27 at 3:21PM CDT until June 27 at 6:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 27, 4:27 PM -> Jun 27, 5:30 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 27 at 3:27PM CDT until June 27 at 4:30PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 4:27 PM -> Jun 27, 5:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 4:27PM EDT until June 27 at 5:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 4:31 PM -> Jun 27, 5:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 4:31PM EDT until June 27 at 5:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Warning

Jun 27, 4:34 PM -> Jun 28, 10:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 27 at 4:34PM EDT until June 28 at 3:41PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 4:56 PM -> Jun 27, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 4:56PM EDT until June 27 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 4:57 PM -> Jun 27, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 3:57PM CDT until June 27 at 6:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 27, 5:02 PM -> Jun 27, 5:30 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 27 at 5:02PM EDT until June 27 at 5:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 5:25 PM -> Jun 27, 11:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 5:25PM EDT until June 27 at 11:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 27, 6:40 PM -> Jun 28, 12:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 27 at 5:40PM CDT until June 27 at 11:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 6:56 PM -> Jun 28, 12:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 27 at 6:56PM EDT until June 28 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 6:56 PM -> Jun 28, 3:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 27 at 6:56PM EDT until June 28 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 7:04 PM -> Jun 28, 12:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 27 at 7:04PM EDT until June 28 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 27, 7:04 PM -> Jun 28, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 27 at 7:04PM EDT until June 28 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Confidence
85%

Soggy Saturday: Widespread Rain and Gusty Winds Across KY

A widespread rain event will impact the entire Commonwealth on Saturday as a moisture-rich system traverses the region. Expect persistent clouds, steady rainfall, and occasionally gusty winds, particularly in Central and Eastern Kentucky.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in the timing and coverage of precipitation across the state. Lower confidence in the peak rainfall totals due to the significant discrepancy between the aggressive NAM and conservative global models.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Consistent Rain and Humid Conditions
Rain
81°/ 72°

Northwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Morning Heavy Rain Tapering to Showers
Rain
81°/ 71°

Southwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Persistent Rain Throughout the Day
Rain
80°/ 72°

Barren River

IMPACTFUL
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Heavy Evening Rain for Bowling Green
Rain
80°/ 71°

Louisville Metro

IMPACTFUL
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Widespread Steady Rain for the Metro
Heavy_Rain
80°/ 70°

Lincoln Trail

IMPACTFUL
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Significant Rain and Low Visibility
Heavy_Rain
79°/ 69°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Damp and Overcast near the Lake
Rain
78°/ 70°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Lighter Rain for the Northern Counties
Rain
80°/ 69°

Inner Bluegrass

IMPACTFUL
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Breezy and Soggy in Lexington
Rain
79°/ 70°

Bluegrass Foothills

IMPACTFUL
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Very Gusty Winds and Passing Rain
Rain
76°/ 69°

Northeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Heavy Rain for Ashland and Morehead
Heavy_Rain
77°/ 69°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Misty and Rainy in the Mountains
Rain
76°/ 69°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The NAM solution verifies, where training rain bands and terrain enhancement lead to localized totals exceeding 3 to 4 inches in Central and Northeast Kentucky, potentially causing minor flash flooding and significant ponding on roadways.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The more conservative GFS/Euro solutions dominate, with the system moving faster and moisture transport being less efficient, resulting in a widespread nuisance rain of 0.25 to 0.75 inches with minimal travel impacts.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

Boundary Layer Wind Gusts

The NAM suggests much higher wind gusts (35-40 mph) due to a tighter pressure gradient and better resolution of the low-level jet compared to the global models (15-25 mph).

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

Mesoscale models like the NAM typically resolve localized wind fields and pressure gradients more accurately in high-moisture overrunning patterns.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLSBLUEGRASS COREBARREN RIVER

The QPF Magnitude Conflict

The NAM is a significant outlier, predicting localized rainfall totals of 3-4 inches in the Louisville and Northeast regions, whereas the GFS and Euro maintain a more conservative 0.5 to 1.1 inch range.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

While the NAM correctly identifies terrain-induced enhancement, its 4-inch bullseyes are likely overdone in a stratiform environment with 0 CAPE. The Euro provides a more physically consistent middle ground for widespread synoptic rainfall.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METRONORTHEAST KYLINCOLN TRAIL

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical temperature stack is characterized by a deep, moist adiabatic lapse rate with no significant inversions below 500mb. Surface temperatures in the 70s and 80s ensure a strictly liquid event.

Thermal Boundary

The freezing line remains well north in Canada, with the entire Ohio Valley entrenched in a warm, tropical sector south of a stalled boundary near the Great Lakes.

Diurnal Trend

A muted diurnal curve is expected due to 90%+ cloud cover and evaporative cooling from steady precipitation, leading to a narrow high-to-low temperature spread.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No distinct surface cold front is noted; rather, the event is driven by a series of pre-frontal moisture pulses and isentropic lift.

Jet Stream Support

Strong upper-level support is provided by the right-entrance region of a 100kt jet streak centered over the Great Lakes, promoting broad ascent.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough is providing positive vorticity advection, peaking at various intervals as several energy lobes pass through the cyclonic flow.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The atmospheric column is deeply saturated from the surface through 500mb, with minimal dewpoint depressions, eliminating any virga risk.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be primarily stratiform and high-efficiency. While lightning is unlikely due to 0 CAPE, rain rates may be heavy at times.

Flooding Context

The ground is near normal saturation; while 1-2 inches of rain is manageable, the risk for localized urban flooding exists if the NAM's higher totals verify.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

94% Illumination
Moonrise
7:51 PM
Moonset
4:22 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:37 AM
Sunset
9:19 PM
Civil Dawn
6:06 AM
Civil Dusk
9:50 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:29 AM
Sunset
9:15 PM
Civil Dawn
5:58 AM
Civil Dusk
9:46 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:33 AM
Sunset
9:14 PM
Civil Dawn
6:03 AM
Civil Dusk
9:45 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:29 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:58 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:22 AM
Sunset
9:11 PM
Civil Dawn
5:51 AM
Civil Dusk
9:43 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:24 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:53 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:21 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:50 AM
Civil Dusk
9:34 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:15 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
5:43 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:18 AM
Sunset
9:06 PM
Civil Dawn
5:47 AM
Civil Dusk
9:37 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:18 AM
Sunset
9:04 PM
Civil Dawn
5:47 AM
Civil Dusk
9:35 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:09 AM
Sunset
8:59 PM
Civil Dawn
5:37 AM
Civil Dusk
9:31 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:15 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
5:44 AM
Civil Dusk
9:29 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.