kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Thu, Jun 25
Sat, Jun 27
Forecast For

Friday, June 26

Updated Jun 26, 7:14 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Watch

Jun 25, 2:17 PM -> Jun 26, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 25 at 1:17PM CDT until June 27 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jun 25, 3:54 PM -> Jun 26, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 25 at 3:54PM EDT until June 27 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 1:09 AM -> Jun 26, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 1:09AM EDT until June 27 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 1:57 AM -> Jun 26, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 1:57AM EDT until June 27 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 1:57 AM -> Jun 26, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 1:57AM EDT until June 27 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 3:20 AM -> Jun 26, 12:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 3:20AM EDT until June 27 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 8:32 AM -> Jun 26, 4:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 7:32AM CDT until June 28 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 8:32 AM -> Jun 26, 4:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 7:32AM CDT until June 28 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 8:55 AM -> Jun 26, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 8:55AM EDT until June 27 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Advisory

Jun 26, 10:55 AM -> Jun 26, 3:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 26 at 10:55AM EDT until June 26 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 11:56 AM -> Jun 26, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 11:56AM EDT until June 27 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 1:39 PM -> Jun 26, 9:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 1:39PM EDT until June 27 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 2:17 PM -> Jun 27, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 1:17PM CDT until June 28 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 2:17 PM -> Jun 27, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 1:17PM CDT until June 27 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 3:03 PM -> Jun 27, 12:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 3:03PM EDT until June 27 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 3:03 PM -> Jun 27, 12:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 3:03PM EDT until June 27 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 26, 3:10 PM -> Jun 27, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 26 at 2:10PM CDT until June 28 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Tornado Watch

Jun 26, 4:57 PM -> Jun 26, 11:00 PM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued June 26 at 3:57PM CDT until June 26 at 10:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 26, 5:00 PM -> Jun 26, 5:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 26 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 26, 5:03 PM -> Jun 26, 5:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 26 at 5:03PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 26, 5:05 PM -> Jun 26, 5:30 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 26 at 4:05PM CDT until June 26 at 4:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 26, 5:07 PM -> Jun 26, 5:30 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 26 at 4:07PM CDT until June 26 at 4:30PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 26, 5:10 PM -> Jun 26, 11:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 26 at 4:10PM CDT until June 26 at 10:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Tornado Warning

Jun 26, 5:21 PM -> Jun 26, 6:00 PM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Warning issued June 26 at 4:21PM CDT until June 26 at 5:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 26, 6:05 PM -> Jun 27, 12:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 26 at 5:05PM CDT until June 26 at 11:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Confidence
85%

Soggy Friday with Widespread Rain and High Humidity

A widespread rain event will impact Kentucky on Friday as a slow-moving mid-level shortwave interacts with a stalling surface boundary. Expect high humidity and persistent cloud cover across the state, with the heaviest rainfall totals likely in Western and Northern Kentucky. No severe weather or wintry precipitation is expected.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence exists for the occurrence of rain and the general temperature profile. The only reduction in confidence stems from model disagreements regarding specific rainfall accumulation axes.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

IMPACTFUL
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Morning Downpours Expected
Heavy_Rain
83°/ 70°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Persistent Rain Showers
Rain
78°/ 70°

Southwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Heavy Morning Rain
Heavy_Rain
80°/ 70°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Afternoon Showers Likely
Rain
81°/ 70°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Wet Day in the Metro
Rain
75°/ 70°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Damp and Cloudy Friday
Rain
77°/ 69°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Rain Increasing Late
Rain
81°/ 68°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Significant Rain and Soggy Conditions
Rain
75°/ 68°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Afternoon Rain for Lexington
Rain
79°/ 69°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Showery and Humid
Rain
80°/ 68°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Rain Increasing Toward Evening
Rain
81°/ 67°

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Mostly Dry and Very Warm
Cloudy
86°/ 68°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the frontal boundary stalls further south and interacts with the maximum moisture transport as suggested by the NAM, rainfall totals could exceed 1.5 inches in Western Kentucky and the Northern Bluegrass, leading to localized minor flooding in urban areas.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the mid-level trough is faster and drier air entrainment occurs from the north (as hinted by GFS), precipitation would remain light and stratiform, with totals staying below 0.5 inches statewide and clearing occurring earlier Friday evening.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

Frontal Positioning Battle

The Euro and NAM disagree on where the primary low-level convergence will focus. The Euro targets the Ohio River/Northern KY for the heaviest totals, while the NAM focuses on the Western/Southern Pennyrile.

EURO
VS
NAM
Why EURO Wins

The Euro is historically more reliable with the positioning of stalling baroclinic zones (fronts) and synoptic-scale lift patterns.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METRONORTHERN KYNORTHEAST KY

The Western QPF Divergence

A sharp disagreement exists between the NAM and GFS regarding rainfall intensity in Western Kentucky. The NAM suggests a high-intensity moisture surge (over 1 inch), while the GFS remains much drier (near 0.5 inches).

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

While the NAM often over-forecasts localized bullseyes, its superior resolution of low-level moisture transport in the 0-36h window is more credible than the GFS 'smear' effect. However, a blend is used to temper the NAM's outliers.

Affected Regions
PURCHASESOUTHWEST PENNYRILE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A warm-core summer profile is in place with a moist-adiabatic lapse rate and high surface dew points. No freezing levels exist below 12,000ft AGL.

Thermal Boundary

A quasi-stationary moisture boundary is expected to drape across the Ohio River valley by midday Friday.

Diurnal Trend

A muted diurnal curve is expected. Afternoon highs will be held in the 70s and low 80s due to nearly 100% cloud cover and evaporative cooling from precipitation.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No true cold front passage is expected; the environment is characterized by a stalling boundary under a mid-level shortwave.

Jet Stream Support

Upper-level support is provided by the right-entrance region of a 90kt jet streak over the Great Lakes, aiding in broad synoptic lift.

Energy Status

Vorticity pulses between 0.00012 and 0.00023 will move through the flow, initiating 'rounds' of rain.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The atmospheric column is deeply saturated from the surface through 500mb, particularly across the western two-thirds of the state.

Precipitation Character

Predominantly stratiform rain with occasional embedded heavier downpours. Convection remains elevated and weak due to lack of surface-based CAPE.

Flooding Context

Ground conditions are not currently saturated, so the flooding risk is low; however, rainfall rates in Northern KY and the Purchase could cause minor street ponding.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

89% Illumination
Moonrise
6:53 PM
Moonset
3:45 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:37 AM
Sunset
9:19 PM
Civil Dawn
6:06 AM
Civil Dusk
9:50 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:29 AM
Sunset
9:15 PM
Civil Dawn
5:58 AM
Civil Dusk
9:46 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:33 AM
Sunset
9:14 PM
Civil Dawn
6:02 AM
Civil Dusk
9:45 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:29 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:58 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:22 AM
Sunset
9:11 PM
Civil Dawn
5:50 AM
Civil Dusk
9:43 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:24 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:53 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:21 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:50 AM
Civil Dusk
9:34 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:14 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
5:42 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:18 AM
Sunset
9:05 PM
Civil Dawn
5:46 AM
Civil Dusk
9:37 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:18 AM
Sunset
9:04 PM
Civil Dawn
5:46 AM
Civil Dusk
9:35 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:09 AM
Sunset
8:59 PM
Civil Dawn
5:37 AM
Civil Dusk
9:31 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:15 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
5:44 AM
Civil Dusk
9:29 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.