Thursday, June 25
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 25 at 1:36AM CDT until June 27 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, including the following areas, Alexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson, Massac, Perry IL, Pope, Pulaski, Saline, Union, Wabash, Wayne IL, White and Williamson, southwest Indiana, including the following areas, Gibson, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh and Warrick, western Kentucky, including the following areas, Henderson and Union KY, and southeast Missouri, including the following areas, Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Perry MO, Ripley, Scott, Stoddard and Wayne MO.
WHEN From this afternoon through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through Friday night. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall from thunderstorms could produce flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 25 at 4:13AM EDT until June 27 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison IN, Orange, Perry and Washington IN and north central Kentucky, including the following area, Jefferson.
WHEN From this afternoon through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky this evening through Saturday morning. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 25 at 1:17PM CDT until June 27 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and far northwest Kentucky.
WHEN Through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through Friday night. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall from thunderstorms could produce flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 25 at 3:54PM EDT until June 27 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison IN, Orange, Perry and Washington IN and north central Kentucky, including the following area, Jefferson.
WHEN Through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky this evening through Saturday morning. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Scattered Showers North; Humid and Warm South
A weak surface boundary will sag across the Ohio River Valley, focusing light rain and increased cloud cover over Northern and Central Kentucky. Southern regions will remain dry and seasonally warm under a mix of sun and clouds.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the temperature forecast and the location of the stalled boundary. Moderate confidence in the exact rainfall amounts due to the risk of low-level evaporation (virga).
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a cloudier day with light rain arriving by the afternoon. Rain totals will be very light, generally less than a tenth of an inch.
Northwest Pennyrile
Clouds will thicken throughout the day with light rain showers becoming likely by evening. No significant impacts are expected.
Southwest Pennyrile
A mix of sun and clouds is expected today. While the northern part of the region may see a stray sprinkle, most areas will stay dry.
Barren River
Expect a quiet summer day in Bowling Green with warm temperatures and plenty of sunshine.
Louisville Metro
A warm day will turn damp by the evening as light to moderate rain showers move through the area. Accumulations around 0.15 inches are expected.
Lincoln Trail
A brief shower is possible in the afternoon, but most of the rain will stay north toward Louisville.
Lake Cumberland
A beautiful day for the lake with full sun and highs in the mid-80s.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a grey and damp day with several rounds of light rain. Accumulations will be around 0.20 inches.
Inner Bluegrass
The morning and afternoon will be dry and breezy. A few light showers may arrive by sunset.
Bluegrass Foothills
Clouds will thicken later in the day, but rain is not expected to reach the ground.
Northeast Kentucky
Most of the day will be sunny and warm. A stray shower or sprinkle is possible late tonight.
Southeast Kentucky
You may see some dark clouds in the morning, but the air is too dry for any rain to reach the ground.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' scenario occurs if the stalled boundary gains more moisture from the Gulf and local instability exceeds 500 J/kg, potentially boosting rainfall totals in the Louisville and Northern Kentucky corridors to over 0.50 inches with isolated thunderstorms.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario occurs if the dry low-level air (dewpoint depressions >15F) seen in the GFS and Euro remains entrenched, leading to a widespread virga event where most rain evaporates before reaching the ground, leaving only sprinkles for the northern tier.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The QPF Coverage Conflict
Models disagree on the intensity and southern extent of the precipitation shield. The NAM is more aggressive with localized rainfall totals near 0.25-0.40 inches, while the GFS and Euro suggest a much lighter, more disorganized event with totals under 0.10 inches.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically resolves shallow, stalling boundaries and low-level moisture convergence better than global models within the 48-hour window. Its higher QPF aligns with the expected frontogenetic forcing along the 850mb layer.
The Virga Trap
The NAM predicts 80% POPs across the Southeast Coalfields but zero liquid accumulation, suggesting a high risk of virga. The Euro and GFS simply keep the area dry with low POPs.
Why EURO Wins
While the NAM correctly identifies the moisture aloft, the public-facing forecast should reflect the lack of measurable rain. The Euro's lower POP is a better representation of the dry surface conditions.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.