Wednesday, June 24
Warm Summer Day with Isolated Morning Sprinkles
High pressure will maintain dry and seasonally warm conditions for the vast majority of Kentucky. A weak upper-level disturbance will bring a low-end chance for morning sprinkles to the far western and eastern regions, though no measurable rainfall is expected.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in temperatures and the lack of impactful precipitation. Minor uncertainty exists regarding the exact coverage of non-measurable morning sprinkles and cloud ceilings.
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Purchase Area
Expect a mostly cloudy morning with the chance for a few light sprinkles through noon. Conditions will improve by the afternoon with some sun peeking through and a high of 82°F.
Northwest Pennyrile
A beautiful summer day is expected with plenty of sunshine and comfortable humidity. High temperatures will reach around 81°F with light winds.
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunny skies will prevail for most of the day with a few passing clouds in the evening. Highs will be near 82°F with very light southerly winds.
Barren River
Expect a pleasant day in Bowling Green with highs topping out at 81°F. Clouds will increase slightly in the afternoon but no rain is expected.
Louisville Metro
The metro area will see a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day. Afternoon highs will reach 82°F, falling to a comfortable 62°F overnight.
Lincoln Trail
Clear skies and light winds will make for a perfect outdoor day in Elizabethtown. Highs will remain right around 80°F.
Lake Cumberland
Ideal weather for boating with highs near 81°F and a light breeze. Passing clouds will provide occasional shade but no rainfall.
Northern Kentucky
Expect the sunniest skies in the state for Covington and Florence. Highs will reach 80°F with very low humidity.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will enjoy a sunny day with highs near 80°F. A light breeze from the northeast will keep it feeling comfortable.
Bluegrass Foothills
The foothills will see a mix of sun and clouds throughout the afternoon. Temperatures will be pleasant with highs right around 80°F.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect a crisp morning in the 50s followed by a sunny afternoon with a high of 81°F. Light winds will prevail across the region.
Southeast Kentucky
Cloudy skies and a few light sprinkles are likely in the morning hours. Skies will gradually clear by the afternoon with a high of 79°F.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If low-level moisture recovery is faster than expected, the weak shortwave energy could produce a few localized areas of light, measurable rain (0.01-0.05 inches) in the far west and east.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The prevailing high-pressure subsidence completely suppresses the weak shortwave energy, resulting in a cloud-free day with zero precipitation across the entire state.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Virga War
The NAM is aggressively forecasting high probabilities (80%) of light precipitation in the far west and east, while the GFS and ECMWF maintain a nearly dry profile with PoPs under 10%.
Why BLEND Wins
While the NAM captures the subtle shortwave energy better, its high PoP is likely overdone given the lack of low-level saturation. A blend acknowledges the moisture but keeps totals at a trace.
Cloud Cover Discrepancy
GFS forecasts nearly 100% sunshine statewide, whereas the ECMWF and NAM suggest a persistent mid-level cloud deck around 5,000-8,000 feet.
Why EURO Wins
The ECMWF typically handles mid-level moisture transport more realistically than the GFS, which often over-dries the mid-troposphere in summer ridging setups.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.