Tuesday, June 23
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 22 at 9:14AM EDT until June 22 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in east central Kentucky, Bath, Elliott, Estill, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell and Rowan. In northeast Kentucky, Johnson and Martin. In south central Kentucky, Laurel, Rockcastle and Whitley. In southeast Kentucky, Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Jackson, Knott, Knox, Lee, Leslie, Letcher, Magoffin, Morgan, Owsley, Perry, Pike and Wolfe.
WHEN Through this evening.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Excessive rains of the past week have left a good portion of the area primed for high water issues in locations that experience training thunderstorms through this evening. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some with torrential downpours, are expected to affect the area through the evening, leading to a potential for flash flooding considering the soaked grounds in certain parts of eastern Kentucky. Confidence in any location experiencing flooding is low, though, given the tough to predict nature of training storms. As a result caution and awareness is urged through this evening.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 22 at 3:08PM EDT until June 23 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Vinton and Washington, southwest Virginia, including the following counties, Buchanan and Dickenson, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Logan, Mason, McDowell, Mingo, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Pocahontas, Northwest Raleigh, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Pleasants, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Pocahontas, Southeast Raleigh, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Tyler, Upshur, Wayne, Wirt, Wood and Wyoming.
WHEN Through Tuesday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into the evening and overnight in advance of and along an approaching cold front. Rainfall will be locally heavy at times, with totals of 1-2" expected across portions of the area, higher in some locations, which could result in instances of flash flooding. Areas that received heavy rainfall last week and earlier today will be most vulnerable to flooding. As for the overnight hours, the greatest risk of flooding looks to be from Charleston Metro south into the southern coalfields and into the mountains. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Morning Showers East, Afternoon Sun Statewide
A weak upper-level disturbance will exit the Appalachians this morning, leaving behind lingering clouds and light rain for Central and Eastern Kentucky. Western Kentucky will start clear, with high pressure building across the state by the afternoon to provide pleasant conditions for all.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall synoptic transition to high pressure, but minor uncertainty exists regarding the exact hour rain exits the far eastern counties.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A beautiful summer day is expected with clear skies from start to finish. Temperatures will be very comfortable, peaking in the low 80s.
Northwest Pennyrile
Enjoy a full day of sunshine with pleasant humidity levels. Highs will reach the low 80s under light northwest winds.
Southwest Pennyrile
A great day for outdoor plans as morning clouds quickly give way to sun. Humidity will remain low for late June.
Barren River
Clouds will be stubborn through the mid-morning hours before breaking for sun. The afternoon will be very pleasant with highs in the upper 70s.
Louisville Metro
The city will see plenty of sun today after a few early morning clouds. Highs will reach the low 80s, feeling like a perfect summer day.
Lincoln Trail
Skies will clear by late morning, leading to a beautiful and sunny afternoon. Highs will be near 80 degrees.
Lake Cumberland
Expect light rain and damp roads through mid-morning. Accumulations of about 0.03 inches are expected before skies clear after lunch.
Northern Kentucky
A great day for Northern Kentucky with sunshine from dawn to dusk. Temperatures will be seasonal in the low 80s.
Inner Bluegrass
Light morning rain will move out early, giving way to a sunny afternoon. Accumulations will be minimal, around 0.02 inches.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect light rain through the mid-morning commute. Accumulations near 0.03 inches are likely before the sun comes out by afternoon.
Northeast Kentucky
A few light showers are possible in the morning, followed by clearing skies. Expect around 0.04 inches of rain early on.
Southeast Kentucky
Rain will be most persistent here today, lingering through the early afternoon. Accumulations near 0.20 inches are expected before skies start to clear late.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' scenario involves orographic enhancement in the Southeast Coalfields and a slower trough progression, which could lead to rainfall totals near 0.50 inches and persistent cloud cover in the Bluegrass through sunset.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario assumes the mid-level dry slot arrives earlier than modeled, cutting off precipitation by dawn and allowing skies to clear across the entire state by mid-morning.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Low-Level Cloud Hangover
NAM soundings show moisture trapped under a weak 850mb inversion in Central Kentucky, suggesting clouds linger through noon, while GFS/Euro suggest rapid clearing.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically resolves shallow, low-level moisture and topographic trapping along the escarpment better than global models within the 24-hour window.
Southeast Rainfall Magnitude
The GFS is significantly more aggressive with precipitation totals in the Southeast Coalfields (0.36 inches) compared to the NAM and Euro (0.11-0.16 inches).
Why EURO Wins
The GFS is displaying its known 'smear' bias, over-forecasting light precipitation coverage and intensity in a post-frontal regime. The Euro provides a more realistic middle-ground for stratiform rain in this setup.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.