kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sun, Jun 21
Tue, Jun 23
Forecast For

Monday, June 22

Updated Jun 22, 7:14 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 21, 10:55 PM -> Jun 22, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 21 at 10:55PM EDT until June 22 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 21, 11:08 PM -> Jun 22, 2:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 21 at 11:08PM EDT until June 22 at 2:30AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Jun 21, 11:26 PM -> Jun 22, 2:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 21 at 11:26PM EDT until June 22 at 2:30AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 21, 11:29 PM -> Jun 22, 3:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 21 at 11:29PM EDT until June 22 at 3:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Tornado Watch

Jun 21, 11:49 PM -> Jun 22, 2:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued June 21 at 11:49PM EDT until June 22 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 21, 11:58 PM -> Jun 22, 12:45 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 21 at 11:58PM EDT until June 22 at 12:45AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 22, 12:14 AM -> Jun 22, 1:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 22 at 12:14AM EDT until June 22 at 1:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Tornado Warning

Jun 22, 12:22 AM -> Jun 22, 1:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Warning issued June 21 at 11:22PM CDT until June 22 at 12:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 22, 1:38 AM -> Jun 22, 4:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 22 at 12:38AM CDT until June 22 at 3:45AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 22, 1:44 AM -> Jun 22, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 22 at 12:44AM CDT until June 22 at 11:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 22, 1:51 AM -> Jun 22, 4:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 22 at 1:51AM EDT until June 22 at 4:45AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 22, 2:28 AM -> Jun 22, 3:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 22 at 2:28AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Jun 22, 2:35 AM -> Jun 22, 3:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 22 at 1:35AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 22, 2:44 AM -> Jun 22, 3:15 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 22 at 1:44AM CDT until June 22 at 2:15AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 22, 2:46 AM -> Jun 22, 3:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 22 at 2:46AM EDT until June 22 at 3:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 22, 2:46 AM -> Jun 22, 3:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 22 at 2:46AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 22, 3:00 AM -> Jun 22, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 22 at 3:00AM EDT until June 22 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Jun 22, 9:14 AM -> Jun 22, 11:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 22 at 9:14AM EDT until June 22 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 22, 10:38 AM -> Jun 22, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 22 at 10:38AM EDT until June 22 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Jun 22, 11:55 AM -> Jun 22, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 22 at 11:55AM EDT until June 22 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 22, 1:18 PM -> Jun 22, 1:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 22 at 1:18PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 22, 2:54 PM -> Jun 22, 3:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 22 at 2:54PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 22, 3:08 PM -> Jun 22, 11:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 22 at 3:08PM EDT until June 23 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Jun 22, 3:19 PM -> Jun 22, 3:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 22 at 3:19PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 22, 3:22 PM -> Jun 22, 3:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 22 at 3:22PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
85%

Widespread Rain and Gusty Winds Sweep Across Kentucky

A soggy Monday is ahead for the Commonwealth as a moisture-rich weather system moves from west to east. Expect widespread rain showers, gusty winds, and mild temperatures, with the heaviest rainfall likely in South-Central and Northeastern Kentucky.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in precipitation occurrence across the state, but moderate uncertainty remains regarding the exact placement of the heaviest rainfall axes (South vs. Northeast).

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Morning Showers, Evening Clearing
Rain
74°/ 64°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Early Rain Tapers to Drizzle
Rain
75°/ 66°

Southwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Persistent Soaking Rain
Rain
76°/ 65°

Barren River

IMPACTFUL
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Heavy Rain and Windy Conditions
Heavy_Rain
78°/ 67°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Wet Morning Commute, Damp Afternoon
Rain
77°/ 68°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Breezy with Steady Showers
Rain
77°/ 66°

Lake Cumberland

IMPACTFUL
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Heavy Afternoon Rain on the Plateau
Heavy_Rain
79°/ 69°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Blustery with Light Rain
Rain
78°/ 66°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Soggy Morning, Windy Afternoon
Rain
79°/ 67°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Strong Gusts and Steady Showers
Rain
77°/ 66°

Northeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Heavy Rain Alert: Valley Ponding Likely
Heavy_Rain
78°/ 68°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Warm Start, Rainy Afternoon and Fog
Rain
82°/ 68°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The 'Boom' scenario involves the GFS solution verifying, where high-efficiency tropical rainfall training over the southern tier leads to localized 3-inch totals and minor flash flooding in the Barren River and Pennyrile regions.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The 'Bust' scenario assumes the drier Euro/NAM mid-level dry slot cuts off precipitation early, resulting in a quick morning soaking under 0.50 inches for most, followed by a gray but dry afternoon.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Northeastern Moisture Trap

The NAM is aggressive with moisture convergence in the Northeast KY valleys, forecasting nearly 2 inches of rain, whereas global models are significantly drier.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

NAM's superior resolution of valley anchoring and orographic lift along the Appalachian foothills often captures heavy rainfall events in these regions that global models 'smear' out.

Affected Regions
NORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

The Southern Soaker Dispute

A major disagreement exists regarding rainfall intensity in the southern tier. The GFS produces a massive 3-inch bullseye in South-Central KY, while the NAM and Euro suggest more modest totals closer to 1 inch.

GFS
VS
NAM
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

The GFS likely over-convects in zero-CAPE environments, leading to 'phantom' extreme totals. The Euro's steady-hand approach to stratiform rain is more physically consistent with the lack of instability.

Affected Regions
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILEBARREN RIVERLAKE CUMBERLAND

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical column is deeply saturated and follows a moist-adiabatic lapse rate. Freezing levels are well above 12,000 feet, precluding any wintry concerns.

Thermal Boundary

A weak surface trough is stalled along the Ohio River, slowly drifting southeast throughout the day.

Diurnal Trend

Non-diurnal trends will be evident in Western KY where rain-cooled air and the trough passage cause temps to plateau or fall in the afternoon.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A weak cold front moves through the Purchase between 12z-15z, evidenced by a subtle shift to northwesterly winds and falling dewpoints.

Jet Stream Support

Upper-level divergence is maximized in the right entrance region of a 300mb jet streak, specifically aiding lift in Central and Southern KY.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough is the primary energy source, with a notable vorticity maximum pivoting through the southern half of the state between 15z and 21z.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is fully saturated (RH > 85%) below 500mb. Minimal virga risk exists except in the far Southeast during the early morning hours.

Precipitation Character

Primarily stratiform rain. The lack of CAPE will prevent lightning, but high moisture content ensures efficient, 'soaking' rainfall rates.

Flooding Context

Ground conditions are currently stable, but localized training in Northeast KY or the Southern tier could cause minor poor-drainage flooding.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

Not applicable; purely liquid event.

Crystal Habit

Not applicable.

Road Impact

Wet roads and reduced visibility from heavy rain and mist will be the primary travel impacts.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

First Quarter

56% Illumination
Moonrise
2:47 PM
Moonset
1:56 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:36 AM
Sunset
9:18 PM
Civil Dawn
6:05 AM
Civil Dusk
9:49 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:28 AM
Sunset
9:15 PM
Civil Dawn
5:56 AM
Civil Dusk
9:46 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:32 AM
Sunset
9:13 PM
Civil Dawn
6:01 AM
Civil Dusk
9:44 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:28 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:57 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:21 AM
Sunset
9:11 PM
Civil Dawn
5:49 AM
Civil Dusk
9:42 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:23 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
5:52 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:20 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:49 AM
Civil Dusk
9:33 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:13 AM
Sunset
9:08 PM
Civil Dawn
5:41 AM
Civil Dusk
9:40 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:17 AM
Sunset
9:05 PM
Civil Dawn
5:45 AM
Civil Dusk
9:37 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:17 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:45 AM
Civil Dusk
9:35 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:08 AM
Sunset
8:59 PM
Civil Dawn
5:36 AM
Civil Dusk
9:31 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:14 AM
Sunset
8:57 PM
Civil Dawn
5:43 AM
Civil Dusk
9:28 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.