Sunday, June 21
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Lake Wind Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory issued June 20 at 11:08PM CDT until June 21 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph expected.
WHERE Crab Orchard and Rend Lake in Illinois, Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley in Kentucky, and Lake Wappapello in Missouri.
WHEN From noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Strong winds and rough waves on area lakes will create hazardous conditions for small craft.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 21 at 5:16AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
Fog has developed this morning. Some fog may be dense in spots, particularly in river valley locations. If traveling this morning, slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave extra room between your vehicle and other vehicles.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 21 at 6:10AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
Dense fog has formed across many of the river valleys after rainfall this morning. Fog may be locally dense with visibility as low as one half of a mile in some spots. Fog is expected to dissipate shortly after sunrise. Exercise caution when traveling this morning. Slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave extra room between other vehicles.
Lake Wind Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory issued June 21 at 7:05AM CDT until June 21 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph expected.
WHERE Crab Orchard and Rend Lake in Illinois, Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley in Kentucky, and Lake Wappapello in Missouri.
WHEN From noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening.
IMPACTS Strong winds and rough waves on area lakes will create hazardous conditions for small craft.
Summer Solstice Showers and Gusty Evening Breezes
A progressive summer shortwave will sweep across Kentucky, bringing scattered light rain to the western and northern corridors while the south and east remain largely dry and warm.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on temperature and the overall progression of the shortwave, though minor disagreement persists on measurable precipitation reaching the ground in the east.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a wet start to the summer season with rain showers likely from morning through the afternoon. Accumulations around 0.2 inches are expected. Winds will pick up late in the day, with gusts reaching 30 mph by sunset.
Northwest Pennyrile
A dry morning will give way to scattered rain showers during the afternoon. Rainfall will total about 0.2 inches. The evening will become windy with gusts over 30 mph possible.
Southwest Pennyrile
Much of the day will be dry and warm, but clouds will increase with a few light showers arriving by evening. Total rainfall will be minimal, generally less than a tenth of an inch.
Barren River
A typical summer day with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 80s. Only a stray shower is possible late at night.
Louisville Metro
Clouds will build through the afternoon with rain showers arriving for the evening commute. Rainfall around 0.15 inches is expected. Breezy conditions develop late with gusts near 30 mph.
Lincoln Trail
A cloudy but mostly dry afternoon. A few light showers or sprinkles are possible after sunset, but no significant rain is expected.
Lake Cumberland
Mostly sunny and hot with temperatures nearing 87 degrees. Winds will be light throughout the day.
Northern Kentucky
The day will stay dry with a mix of sun and clouds, but steady rain will arrive late this evening. Expect around 0.2 inches of rain.
Inner Bluegrass
A warm and humid day with highs in the 80s. A few light showers are possible in the evening, but significant rain is not expected.
Bluegrass Foothills
Partly sunny and warm with highs in the mid-80s. Rain is unlikely despite increasing clouds.
Northeast Kentucky
A few light showers are possible early in the morning, followed by a warm and partly sunny afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect plenty of sun and warm temperatures in the lower to mid-80s across the mountains with light winds.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the shortwave slows and deepens, widespread rainfall totals could reach 0.50 inches across the northern half of the state with embedded thunder.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the sub-cloud dry air remains entrenched, measurable precipitation may fail to materialize entirely, resulting in nothing more than virga and mid-level cloudiness.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Evening Momentum Battle
NAM suggests significant wind gusts over 30 mph due to 850mb jet mixing, while the Euro remains much calmer with light surface winds.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically resolves the mixing of low-level jets better than global models in high-resolution windows, and the GFS provides partial support for this trend.
The Virga Variance
The NAM is aggressive with low-level dry air, forecasting high rain probabilities but zero measurable accumulation. The GFS and Euro are more optimistic that synoptic lift will overcome the dry layer.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro handles moisture profiles and dry-slot erosion more realistically in summer shortwave setups compared to the NAM's often over-dry low-level bias.
Celestial Almanac
First Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.