kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Wed, Jun 17
Fri, Jun 19
Forecast For

Thursday, June 18

Updated Jun 17, 7:10 PM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Watch

Jun 17, 12:41 PM -> Jun 18, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 17 at 12:41PM EDT until June 18 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 17, 1:02 PM -> Jun 18, 10:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 17 at 1:02PM EDT until June 18 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Jun 17, 1:51 PM -> Jun 18, 1:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 17 at 1:51PM EDT until June 18 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Wind Advisory

Jun 17, 2:13 PM -> Jun 17, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Wind Advisory issued June 17 at 1:13PM CDT until June 17 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Lake Wind Advisory

Jun 17, 2:13 PM -> Jun 17, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Lake Wind Advisory issued June 17 at 1:13PM CDT until June 17 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 17, 3:50 PM -> Jun 18, 12:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 17 at 3:50PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 17, 8:10 PM -> Jun 18, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 17 at 8:10PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 17, 9:10 PM -> Jun 18, 10:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 17 at 9:10PM EDT until June 18 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Tornado Watch

Jun 17, 10:13 PM -> Jun 18, 5:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued June 17 at 10:13PM EDT until June 18 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Tornado Watch

Jun 17, 10:13 PM -> Jun 18, 5:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued June 17 at 10:13PM EDT until June 18 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Tornado Watch

Jun 17, 10:15 PM -> Jun 18, 5:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued June 17 at 10:15PM EDT until June 18 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Tornado Watch

Jun 17, 10:15 PM -> Jun 18, 5:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued June 17 at 10:15PM EDT until June 18 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 18, 12:00 AM -> Jun 18, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 18 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 18, 12:07 AM -> Jun 18, 8:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 18 at 12:07AM EDT until June 18 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Tornado Warning

Jun 18, 12:10 AM -> Jun 18, 1:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Warning issued June 18 at 12:10AM EDT until June 18 at 1:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Jun 18, 3:21 AM -> Jun 18, 10:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 18 at 3:21AM EDT until June 18 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 3:56 AM -> Jun 18, 7:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 3:56AM EDT until June 18 at 7:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 4:11 AM -> Jun 18, 8:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 4:11AM EDT until June 18 at 8:15AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Tornado Watch

Jun 18, 4:39 AM -> Jun 18, 11:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued June 18 at 4:39AM EDT until June 18 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Tornado Watch

Jun 18, 4:39 AM -> Jun 18, 11:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued June 18 at 4:39AM EDT until June 18 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Jun 18, 4:47 AM -> Jun 18, 9:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 18 at 4:47AM EDT until June 18 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 5:04 AM -> Jun 18, 9:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 5:04AM EDT until June 18 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 5:11 AM -> Jun 18, 9:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 5:11AM EDT until June 18 at 9:15AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Tornado Watch

Jun 18, 5:28 AM -> Jun 18, 11:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued June 18 at 5:28AM EDT until June 18 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 5:29 AM -> Jun 18, 8:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 5:29AM EDT until June 18 at 8:45AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Tornado Watch

Jun 18, 5:35 AM -> Jun 18, 11:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued June 18 at 5:35AM EDT until June 18 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 5:45 AM -> Jun 18, 7:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 5:45AM EDT until June 18 at 7:45AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jun 18, 6:00 AM -> Jun 18, 7:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 18 at 6:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 6:09 AM -> Jun 18, 10:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 6:09AM EDT until June 18 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 18, 6:14 AM -> Jun 18, 7:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 18 at 6:14AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 18, 6:19 AM -> Jun 18, 6:45 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 18 at 6:19AM EDT until June 18 at 6:45AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 6:21 AM -> Jun 18, 10:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 6:21AM EDT until June 18 at 10:15AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 6:22 AM -> Jun 18, 9:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 6:22AM EDT until June 18 at 9:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 18, 6:25 AM -> Jun 18, 7:15 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 18 at 6:25AM EDT until June 18 at 7:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 18, 6:28 AM -> Jun 18, 7:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 18 at 6:28AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 18, 6:31 AM -> Jun 18, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 18 at 6:31AM EDT until June 18 at 7:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Tornado Watch

Jun 18, 6:36 AM -> Jun 18, 11:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued June 18 at 6:36AM EDT until June 18 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 7:51 AM -> Jun 18, 12:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 6:51AM CDT until June 18 at 11:45AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 8:47 AM -> Jun 18, 12:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 7:47AM CDT until June 18 at 11:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 9:04 AM -> Jun 18, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 9:04AM EDT until June 18 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 9:05 AM -> Jun 18, 12:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 8:05AM CDT until June 18 at 11:15AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 9:17 AM -> Jun 18, 2:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 9:17AM EDT until June 18 at 2:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 9:40 AM -> Jun 18, 2:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 8:40AM CDT until June 18 at 1:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 18, 9:52 AM -> Jun 18, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 18 at 9:52AM EDT until June 19 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 9:54 AM -> Jun 18, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 8:54AM CDT until June 18 at 3:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jun 18, 10:01 AM -> Jun 18, 6:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 18 at 10:01AM EDT until June 19 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jun 18, 10:02 AM -> Jun 18, 6:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 18 at 10:02AM EDT until June 19 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 10:11 AM -> Jun 18, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 10:11AM EDT until June 18 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 10:25 AM -> Jun 18, 1:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 10:25AM EDT until June 18 at 1:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 10:43 AM -> Jun 18, 12:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 10:43AM EDT until June 18 at 12:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 10:50 AM -> Jun 18, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 10:50AM EDT until June 18 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 11:00 AM -> Jun 18, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 11:00AM EDT until June 18 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 11:15 AM -> Jun 18, 2:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 11:15AM EDT until June 18 at 2:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 11:18 AM -> Jun 18, 1:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 11:18AM EDT until June 18 at 1:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 11:46 AM -> Jun 18, 3:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 11:46AM EDT until June 18 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 11:49 AM -> Jun 18, 1:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 11:49AM EDT until June 18 at 1:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 11:51 AM -> Jun 18, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 11:51AM EDT until June 18 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 12:17 PM -> Jun 18, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 12:17PM EDT until June 18 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 18, 12:32 PM -> Jun 18, 1:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 18 at 12:32PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 12:37 PM -> Jun 18, 6:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 12:37PM EDT until June 18 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 18, 12:44 PM -> Jun 18, 6:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 11:44AM CDT until June 18 at 5:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 18, 12:47 PM -> Jun 18, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 12:47PM EDT until June 18 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 18, 5:19 PM -> Jun 19, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 18 at 5:19PM EDT until June 19 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Jun 18, 5:43 PM -> Jun 19, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 18 at 5:43PM EDT until June 19 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
60%

Heavy Rain and High Winds Target the Commonwealth

A slow-moving summer disturbance and a stalled frontal boundary will bring widespread rain and gusty winds to Kentucky. While the entire state will see precipitation, localized areas in Central Kentucky face a significant risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding due to topographic lift and training storms.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in a widespread rain event and gusty winds. However, confidence is lower regarding the exact placement of the heaviest rainfall bullseye due to significant disagreement between the NAM and GFS regarding moisture convergence zones.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Morning Showers and Breezy Conditions
Rain
82°/ 71°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Early Morning Downpours
Rain
79°/ 69°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Scattered Afternoon Showers
Rain
84°/ 70°

Barren River

IMPACTFUL
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Soggy Afternoon and Evening
Rain
83°/ 73°

Louisville Metro

IMPACTFUL
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Heavy Rain for the Morning Commute
Heavy_Rain
81°/ 69°

Lincoln Trail

SEVERE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Flash Flooding Risk: Heavy Training Rain
Heavy_Rain
78°/ 68°

Lake Cumberland

IMPACTFUL
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Persistent Rain and Windy Peaks
Rain
81°/ 70°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Breezy with Morning Showers
Rain
83°/ 65°

Inner Bluegrass

IMPACTFUL
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Soggy and Very Windy
Rain
77°/ 68°

Bluegrass Foothills

IMPACTFUL
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Heavy Rain Arriving Tonight
Heavy_Rain
78°/ 69°

Northeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Damp and Gusty
Rain
80°/ 69°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Evening Rain in the Mountains
Rain
82°/ 69°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the training of convective elements maximizes along the Muldraugh Escarpment as the NAM suggests, rainfall totals could exceed 5 inches in the Lincoln Trail region, leading to significant flash flooding.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the moisture axis shifts more rapidly or the dynamics remain largely stratiform as per the Euro, rainfall will be a manageable 0.75 to 1.25 inches statewide with minimal flooding impact.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Northern Deluge Dispute

The GFS is an extreme outlier for Northern Kentucky, forecasting over 5.8 inches of rain based on a massive localized vorticity spike, while the NAM and Euro suggest totals well under 1 inch.

GFS
VS
NAM
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

The GFS vorticity value (452e-6) appears to be a model artifact or 'smear' effect. However, the presence of the stalled boundary warrants a higher total than the NAM/Euro baseline, leading to a blended consensus.

Affected Regions
NORTHERN KYNORTHEAST KY

The Escarpment Enhancement

The NAM identifies significant topographic lift along the Muldraugh Escarpment, generating a 4-inch bullseye in Central Kentucky, whereas the global models distribute rain more evenly.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

NAM's higher resolution historically captures topographic influence and stalled boundary convergence (Muldraugh Escarpment) much better than global models in high-moisture summer setups.

Affected Regions
LINCOLN TRAILBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A standard moist-adiabatic lapse rate is present across the state. Surface temperatures in the 70s and 80s and a freezing level near 13,000 feet ensure a pure liquid event with no wintry concerns.

Thermal Boundary

A stalled surface frontal zone is draped across Central Kentucky, roughly along the I-65 and Bluegrass Parkway corridors.

Diurnal Trend

Non-diurnal temperature trends are expected in central regions due to persistent cloud cover and heavy rain; elsewhere, a dampened diurnal curve will prevail.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A weak pre-frontal trough will shift winds and trigger vorticity spikes across Western and Central KY between 06z and 12z.

Jet Stream Support

Upper-level divergence is maximized in the right entrance region of a 90kt jet streak over the Ohio Valley.

Energy Status

A potent shortwave trough with a vorticity max of 0.0016 is progged to impact the I-65 corridor during the morning hours.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The atmospheric column is deeply saturated from the surface to 400mb, though Northeast KY may face some initial virga due to a 14-degree dewpoint depression.

Precipitation Character

The event will be a mix of steady stratiform rain and convective bursts. Training of cells is likely along the topographic gradients of Central Kentucky.

Flooding Context

Flash flooding is the primary concern for the Lincoln Trail and Bluegrass Foothills regions, where rainfall rates could exceed 1 inch per hour in localized training bands.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

15% Illumination
Moonrise
10:18 AM
Moonset
12:03 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:35 AM
Sunset
9:18 PM
Civil Dawn
6:04 AM
Civil Dusk
9:48 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:27 AM
Sunset
9:14 PM
Civil Dawn
5:56 AM
Civil Dusk
9:45 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:31 AM
Sunset
9:12 PM
Civil Dawn
6:01 AM
Civil Dusk
9:43 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:27 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
5:56 AM
Civil Dusk
9:40 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:20 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:49 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:22 AM
Sunset
9:08 PM
Civil Dawn
5:51 AM
Civil Dusk
9:40 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:19 AM
Sunset
9:02 PM
Civil Dawn
5:48 AM
Civil Dusk
9:33 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:13 AM
Sunset
9:07 PM
Civil Dawn
5:40 AM
Civil Dusk
9:40 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:16 AM
Sunset
9:04 PM
Civil Dawn
5:44 AM
Civil Dusk
9:36 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:16 AM
Sunset
9:02 PM
Civil Dawn
5:45 AM
Civil Dusk
9:34 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:07 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
5:35 AM
Civil Dusk
9:30 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:13 AM
Sunset
8:56 PM
Civil Dawn
5:42 AM
Civil Dusk
9:27 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.