Friday, June 19
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 18 at 5:19PM EDT until June 19 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following county, Lawrence, southwest Virginia, including the following counties, Buchanan and Dickenson, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Boone, Lincoln, Logan, McDowell, Mingo, Northwest Raleigh, Southeast Raleigh, Wayne and Wyoming.
WHEN Until 2 AM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Thunderstorms with torrential downpours may move repeatedly over the same locations, which could result in isolated to scattered instances of flash through late tonight. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 18 at 5:43PM EDT until June 19 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in east central Kentucky, Elliott, Estill, Menifee and Powell. In northeast Kentucky, Johnson and Martin. In south central Kentucky, Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Rockcastle, Wayne and Whitley. In southeast Kentucky, Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Jackson, Knott, Knox, Lee, Leslie, Letcher, Magoffin, Morgan, Owsley, Perry, Pike and Wolfe.
WHEN Until 2 AM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms containing torrential downpours may move repeatedly over the same locations, resulting in isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding in low lying areas through late this evening.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 8:22PM EDT until June 18 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
WHERE Portions of south central and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in south central Kentucky, Laurel. In southeast Kentucky, Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Jackson, Knott, Magoffin, Owsley and Perry.
WHEN Until 1000 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 820 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated that the heaviest rainfall had exited off to the southeast; however, isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to threaten the area over the next hour. Minor flooding will continue to be a threat. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... London, Jackson, McKee, Booneville, Buckhorn, Arnett, Morris Fork, Lucky Fork, Houston, Dalesburg, Valjean, Crockettsville, Sebastian's Branch, Cowcreek, Ricetown, Talbert, Turkey, Sebastian, Gobbard and Jetts Creek.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 8:26PM EDT until June 18 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of south central and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in south central Kentucky, McCreary and Whitley. In southeast Kentucky, Bell, Harlan, Knox, Leslie and Letcher.
WHEN Until 1100 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 825 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to showers and thunderstorms passing repeatedly over the same locations. Minor flooding is expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Williamsburg, Harlan, Pineville, Middlesboro, Cumberland, Loyall, Evarts, Lynch, Benham, Wallins Creek, Varilla, Kettle Island, Miracle, Calvin, Ponza, Straight Creek, Arjay, Cary, East Pineville and Callaway.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 8:31PM EDT until June 18 at 10:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Floyd, Knott, Letcher and Pike.
WHEN Until 1030 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 830 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to showers and thunderstorms passing repeatedly over the same locations. Minor flooding is expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Pikeville, Estill, Wheelwright, Wayland, Garden Village, Shelbiana, Chloe, Raccoon, Marrowbone, Zebulon, Fishtrap Lake, Rockhouse, Lookout, Belcher, Phyllis, Kimper, Virgie, Osborn, Jonancy and Galveston.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued June 18 at 8:53PM EDT until June 18 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
The Flood Advisory will expire at 9 PM EDT this evening for portions of northeast and southeast Kentucky, including the following areas, in northeast Kentucky, Martin. In southeast Kentucky, Floyd and Pike. The heaviest rain has ended across the area. A Flood Advisory remains in effect for southern Floyd and Pike counties until 10:30 PM. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.
A Warm June Day with Morning Drizzle in the Mountains
A quiet and warm Friday is in store for the Commonwealth. High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will gradually slide eastward, allowing for a tranquil day with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. While most of the state will remain dry, the morning will start with areas of drizzle and mist in the Southeast Coalfields. Throughout the day, a veil of high clouds will thicken from west to east, leading to a grey but dry evening for most.
Confidence Assessment
Strong model agreement on the temperature profile and the presence of morning moisture in the southeast. High confidence in dry conditions for 90% of the state, with the only minor uncertainty revolving around the exact timing of the increasing cloud cover.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A pleasant start to the day with sunshine will eventually give way to cloudier skies by the afternoon. Temperatures will be warm, reaching the low 80s.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a dry Friday with temperatures peaking in the low 80s. Clouds will move in late in the day, leading to a grey evening.
Southwest Pennyrile
A beautiful June day with highs near 81. Skies will turn overcast by the evening hours, but no rain is expected.
Barren River
Bowling Green can expect a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s.
Louisville Metro
Highs will reach 81 degrees in Louisville. It will be a dry day with clouds increasing throughout the afternoon.
Lincoln Trail
Expect comfortable weather with highs in the upper 70s. Clouds will dominate the sky by late evening.
Lake Cumberland
Sunshine will be abundant early before clouds move in later. Highs will be near 79 with calm winds.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will see highs around 79. A breezy northerly wind will keep things feeling fresh before clouds move in.
Inner Bluegrass
Horse country will enjoy a quiet day with temperatures reaching the upper 70s. Clouds will move in by the evening.
Bluegrass Foothills
Highs will peak in the mid-70s. Clouds will increase throughout the afternoon after a bright start to the morning.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland will see sunshine after a few morning clouds clear. Highs will reach near 80.
Southeast Kentucky
The day will start with some light drizzle or mist in the mountains. This will clear by noon, leaving a dry and mild afternoon.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level shortwave slows and moisture depth increases, morning drizzle in the mountains could transition to light, measurable rain showers (0.05"), and isolated sprinkles could reach as far west as the I-75 corridor.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry air mass currently over the Midwest is more aggressive, the mid-level cloud deck will remain thin, resulting in a mostly sunny day with slightly higher afternoon temperatures reaching the mid-80s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Pennyrile Sprinkle Spat
NAM shows a high PoP (80%) for the Northwest Pennyrile in the evening, suggesting trace precipitation. GFS and Euro are entirely dry for this region.
Why NONE Wins
NAM is likely suffering from its known 'Bullseye' bias for trace precip in weak vorticity environments. We will maintain a dry forecast but increase evening cloud cover to account for the NAM's humidity signal.
The Grey Veil Conflict
A significant disagreement exists regarding sky cover. The GFS maintains a bone-dry column with clear skies, while the Euro and NAM advect a thick plume of mid-to-high level moisture across the state by Friday afternoon.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro and NAM are more consistent with the upstream moisture signatures currently over the Plains. GFS tends to under-represent high-level moisture in zonal flow regimes.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.