Wednesday, June 17
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued June 17 at 12:51AM CDT until June 17 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN From 1 PM CDT this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Lake Wind Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory issued June 17 at 12:51AM CDT until June 17 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph expected.
WHERE Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley in Kentucky.
WHEN From noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening.
IMPACTS Strong winds and rough waves on area lakes will create hazardous conditions for small craft.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 17 at 4:45AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
Windy conditions will develop this afternoon and continue into tonight, even outside of any thunderstorms that develop. Southerly winds will gust up to 30-40 mph, with a few gusts to 45 mph possible. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. The wind gusts may make driving more difficult, especially for high profile vehicles on east-west oriented roads.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 17 at 12:41PM EDT until June 18 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison IN, Jefferson IN, Orange, Perry, Scott IN and Washington IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Anderson, Bourbon, Bullitt, Clark KY, Fayette, Franklin, Harrison KY, Henry, Jefferson, Meade, Nicholas, Oldham, Scott KY, Shelby, Spencer, Trimble and Woodford.
WHEN From 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening through Thursday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rounds of repeated heavy rainfall could lead to localized areas of Flash Flooding tonight. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches are expected although localized amounts over 3" could occur over short periods of time. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 17 at 1:02PM EDT until June 18 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE The following counties, in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland and Union, the following counties, in northern Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson, and the following counties, in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Butler, Clermont and Hamilton.
WHEN From 10 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 17 at 1:51PM EDT until June 18 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE A portion of east central Kentucky, including the following counties, Bath, Fleming, Montgomery and Rowan.
WHEN From late tonight through Thursday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - There is a threat of thunderstorms repeatedly passing over the same locations which could lead to isolated flash flooding in low lying areas from late tonight through early Thursday morning. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued June 17 at 1:13PM CDT until June 17 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN Until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Lake Wind Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory issued June 17 at 1:13PM CDT until June 17 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
WHERE Calloway, Livingston, Lyon, Marshall, and Trigg Counties.
WHEN Until 8 PM CDT this evening.
IMPACTS Strong winds and rough waves on area lakes will create hazardous conditions for small craft.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 17 at 3:46PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
Windy conditions will develop this afternoon and continue into tonight, even outside of any thunderstorms that develop. Southerly winds will gust up to 30-40 mph, with a few gusts to 45 mph possible. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. The wind gusts may make driving more difficult, especially for high profile vehicles on east-west oriented roads.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 17 at 3:50PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Outside of thunderstorms, windy conditions will develop this evening and continue tonight. South to southwest winds will gust up to 30-40 mph, with a few gusts to 45 mph possible. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. The wind gusts may make driving more difficult, especially for high profile vehicles on east-west oriented roads.
Summer Heat Followed by Strong Evening Wind Gusts
A hot and breezy Wednesday is in store for Kentucky as temperatures climb into the mid-to-upper 80s. While a few sprinkles are possible in the north, the primary story will be a significant wind surge this evening with gusts exceeding 45 mph for many.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in summer-like temperatures reaching the 80s. Moderate confidence in the exact peak of wind gusts, as the magnitude depends on the depth of evening boundary layer mixing.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a summer-like day with plenty of sunshine and a high near 88 degrees. Clouds will increase late in the day, but it will remain dry. Be prepared for strong wind gusts reaching 41 mph after sunset.
Northwest Pennyrile
A hot afternoon reaching 87 degrees will be followed by a very windy evening. While it will turn cloudy, no rain is expected. Wind gusts could reach 47 mph near the Ohio River.
Southwest Pennyrile
Mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s will make for a warm Wednesday. Winds will pick up significantly after 6 PM, with gusts around 40 mph.
Barren River
A great day for outdoor activities with highs near 85 degrees. It will turn windy by dinner time, so secure any lightweight outdoor items.
Louisville Metro
Clouds will increase by midday with a few passing light sprinkles possible. However, the air is very dry, so most areas will stay dry. Expect very strong wind gusts up to 45 mph this evening.
Lincoln Trail
A sunny and warm morning will give way to a very windy night. Gusts could reach 47 mph, particularly in higher spots like Elizabethtown.
Lake Cumberland
Expect perfect boating weather with highs in the mid-80s and mostly clear skies. Winds will increase after sunset but will stay more manageable than the north.
Northern Kentucky
A few light rain showers are possible during the day, though totals will be tiny. The bigger concern is a serious wind surge this evening with gusts up to 50 mph possible.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will enjoy a sunny Wednesday with temperatures in the mid-80s. Wind gusts will ramp up quickly after sunset, reaching 47 mph.
Bluegrass Foothills
Highs will reach 83 degrees under mostly clear skies. Be cautious of strong wind gusts this evening, which could reach 44 mph.
Northeast Kentucky
Have the umbrella ready this morning for some light rain. However, the afternoon will turn around completely, becoming hot with temperatures reaching the low 80s and breezy winds.
Southeast Kentucky
Mostly sunny skies and highs near 83 degrees. Evening winds will be gusty but will generally stay under 40 mph.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If low-level moisture saturates more efficiently than modeled, light rain totals could reach 0.25 inches in Northern Kentucky, and wind gusts could exceed 55 mph if the mixing depth taps into the core of the LLJ.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Virga' scenario wins entirely, leaving the state bone-dry with only high clouds. In this case, wind gusts would likely remain capped at 35-40 mph due to slightly shallower mixing.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Moisture Struggle
The Euro forecasts measurable light rain (0.10-0.20") for the northern tier, while the NAM and GFS suggest a 'Virga' setup where dry air below 7,000 feet evaporates most precipitation before it reaches the ground.
Why NAM Wins
NAM soundings show a significant dewpoint depression at the surface (20F+) which historically favors the evaporation of light stratiform rain in these setups.
The Evening Momentum Surge
NAM and GFS signal a robust wind event with gusts over 45 mph, while the Euro's raw output is significantly more conservative with wind speeds.
Why GFS Wins
Global models like the GFS handle the synoptic pressure gradient and LLJ magnitude more reliably in pre-frontal or gradient-driven scenarios.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.