Monday, June 15
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued June 14 at 1:28PM EDT until June 14 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA FAYETTE UNION WAYNE IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA DEARBORN FRANKLIN OHIO RIPLEY IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY BOONE CAMPBELL KENTON IN OHIO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 32 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN HOCKING LICKING MADISON PICKAWAY UNION IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO ADAMS HIGHLAND PIKE ROSS SCIOTO IN SOUTHWEST OHIO BROWN BUTLER CLERMONT CLINTON HAMILTON WARREN IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AUGLAIZE CHAMPAIGN CLARK DARKE GREENE HARDIN LOGAN MERCER MIAMI MONTGOMERY PREBLE SHELBY THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ABERDEEN, ADA, ALEXANDRIA, AURORA, BATESVILLE, BEAVERCREEK, BELLEFONTAINE, BELLEVUE, BLANCHESTER, BRIGHT, BROOKVILLE, BURLINGTON, CAMDEN, CELINA, CHILLICOTHE, CIRCLEVILLE, COLDWATER, CONNERSVILLE, COVINGTON, DAY HEIGHTS, DAYTON, DELAWARE, DILLSBORO, DOWNTOWN CINCINNATI, DOWNTOWN COLUMBUS, DOWNTOWN DAYTON, EATON, ERLANGER, FAIRBORN, FAIRFIELD, FLORENCE, FORT THOMAS, FRANKLIN, GEORGETOWN, GREENDALE, GREENFIELD, GREENVILLE, HAMILTON, HIDDEN VALLEY, HIGHLAND HEIGHTS, HILLSBORO, INDEPENDENCE, KENTON, KETTERING, LANCASTER, LANDEN, LAWRENCEBURG, LEBANON, LIBERTY, LOGAN, LONDON, MANCHESTER, MARYSVILLE, MASON, MIDDLETOWN, MILAN, MILFORD, MINSTER, MOUNT CARMEL, MOUNT ORAB, MOUNT REPOSE, MULBERRY, NEW BREMEN, NEWARK, NEWPORT, OAKBROOK, OSGOOD, OXFORD, PEEBLES, PICKERINGTON, PIKE LAKE, PIKETON, PIQUA, PLAIN CITY, PORTSMOUTH, RICHMOND, RIPLEY, RISING SUN, SEAMAN, SIDNEY, SPRINGBORO, SPRINGFIELD, ST. MARYS, SUMMERSIDE, TIPP CITY, TROY, URBANA, VERSAILLES, WAPAKONETA, WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE, WAVERLY, WEST COLLEGE CORNER, WEST JEFFERSON, WEST UNION, WHEELERSBURG, WILMINGTON, WINCHESTER, WITHAMSVILLE, AND XENIA.
Seasonable and Dry for Most; Stray Mountain Drizzle East
High pressure will maintain control across the majority of Kentucky, delivering a pleasant mid-June day with comfortable humidity and seasonable temperatures. A weak, moisture-starved boundary near the Appalachian spine may trigger isolated light drizzle or a stray shower in the eastern mountains during the morning, but most of the Commonwealth will remain dry with clearing skies by afternoon.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the synoptic setup and temperature profiles. The only deduction comes from the minor disagreement on light precipitation coverage in the eastern terrain.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a perfect summer day with nearly wall-to-wall sunshine. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s with very comfortable humidity levels.
Northwest Pennyrile
Enjoy clear skies and light breezes throughout the day. Highs will top out in the mid-70s.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very comfortable day is in store with bright skies. Humidity will remain low as temperatures reach the mid-70s.
Barren River
Sunny skies will be accompanied by a light breeze from the north. Highs will reach 73 degrees.
Louisville Metro
Expect a gray start to the day, but sunshine will break through by midday. Highs will settle in the mid-70s.
Lincoln Trail
A mix of sun and clouds with high temperatures in the low 70s. It will remain dry for all outdoor activities.
Lake Cumberland
A few light sprinkles or drizzle may occur before noon, followed by a mostly dry afternoon. Highs will reach 72 degrees.
Northern Kentucky
Expect bright sunshine and refreshing temperatures in the low 70s. A great day to be outside along the Ohio River.
Inner Bluegrass
Sunshine will prevail after a cloudy morning. Highs will be around 71 degrees. A steady breeze may gust up to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
Clouds may produce a few light sprinkles in the morning, but sun returns by afternoon. Highs will stay near 71 degrees.
Northeast Kentucky
A cloudy start will give way to a pleasant afternoon with some sun. Highs will be in the low 70s.
Southeast Kentucky
Isolated morning drizzle or a light shower is possible. Expect around 0.01 inches of rain. Sun will break through by the evening with highs near 72.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the 850mb moisture layer remains more robust and the shortwave energy tracks slightly further west, light rain showers could expand into the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions through midday, keeping temperatures in the upper 60s under persistent cloud cover.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry air advection from the Great Lakes is faster than modeled, the mid-level dry slot will completely erode the moisture boundary, resulting in wall-to-wall sunshine and zero precipitation for the entire state, including the mountains.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Mountain Moisture Mystery
A conflict exists regarding the ability of a weak boundary to produce measurable precipitation in the Southeast Coalfields. The NAM remains aggressively dry, citing 0 CAPE and mid-level dry air, while the GFS and Euro insist on high-probability, low-QPF drizzle due to orographic enhancement.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro and GFS are in good agreement regarding the placement of the 850mb moisture boundary. The NAM often over-dries shallow moisture layers in post-frontal regimes, whereas the Euro handles the upslope flow along the Cumberland Plateau with better fidelity.
Celestial Almanac
New Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.