Sunday, June 14
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued June 14 at 1:28PM EDT until June 14 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA FAYETTE UNION WAYNE IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA DEARBORN FRANKLIN OHIO RIPLEY IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY BOONE CAMPBELL KENTON IN OHIO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 32 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN HOCKING LICKING MADISON PICKAWAY UNION IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO ADAMS HIGHLAND PIKE ROSS SCIOTO IN SOUTHWEST OHIO BROWN BUTLER CLERMONT CLINTON HAMILTON WARREN IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AUGLAIZE CHAMPAIGN CLARK DARKE GREENE HARDIN LOGAN MERCER MIAMI MONTGOMERY PREBLE SHELBY THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ABERDEEN, ADA, ALEXANDRIA, AURORA, BATESVILLE, BEAVERCREEK, BELLEFONTAINE, BELLEVUE, BLANCHESTER, BRIGHT, BROOKVILLE, BURLINGTON, CAMDEN, CELINA, CHILLICOTHE, CIRCLEVILLE, COLDWATER, CONNERSVILLE, COVINGTON, DAY HEIGHTS, DAYTON, DELAWARE, DILLSBORO, DOWNTOWN CINCINNATI, DOWNTOWN COLUMBUS, DOWNTOWN DAYTON, EATON, ERLANGER, FAIRBORN, FAIRFIELD, FLORENCE, FORT THOMAS, FRANKLIN, GEORGETOWN, GREENDALE, GREENFIELD, GREENVILLE, HAMILTON, HIDDEN VALLEY, HIGHLAND HEIGHTS, HILLSBORO, INDEPENDENCE, KENTON, KETTERING, LANCASTER, LANDEN, LAWRENCEBURG, LEBANON, LIBERTY, LOGAN, LONDON, MANCHESTER, MARYSVILLE, MASON, MIDDLETOWN, MILAN, MILFORD, MINSTER, MOUNT CARMEL, MOUNT ORAB, MOUNT REPOSE, MULBERRY, NEW BREMEN, NEWARK, NEWPORT, OAKBROOK, OSGOOD, OXFORD, PEEBLES, PICKERINGTON, PIKE LAKE, PIKETON, PIQUA, PLAIN CITY, PORTSMOUTH, RICHMOND, RIPLEY, RISING SUN, SEAMAN, SIDNEY, SPRINGBORO, SPRINGFIELD, ST. MARYS, SUMMERSIDE, TIPP CITY, TROY, URBANA, VERSAILLES, WAPAKONETA, WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE, WAVERLY, WEST COLLEGE CORNER, WEST JEFFERSON, WEST UNION, WHEELERSBURG, WILMINGTON, WINCHESTER, WITHAMSVILLE, AND XENIA.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 14 at 6:25PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
At 624 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Letitia to near Muses Mills. Movement was east at 45 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Huntington, Ashland, Ironton, Grayson, Coal Grove, Olive Hill, Chesapeake, Proctorville, Cannonsburg, Lake Vesuvius, Carter Caves State Park, Kenova, Catlettsburg, Ceredo, Greenup, Coalton, Denton, Gesling, Greenbo Lake, and Oldtown. This includes the following highways... Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 150 and 191. Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 12.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 14 at 6:53PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 652 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers over Morehead, moving east at 45 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Morehead, Sandy Hook, Cranston, Ramey, Wagner, Blairs Mills, Fannin Valley, Elliottville, Little Sandy, Christy, Hilda, Lytten, Pelfrey, Hamm, Crix, Farmers, Wagner Store, Munson, Brandy, and Isonville. THIS INCLUDES Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers 130 and 148.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Widespread Rain and Gusty Winds Move Across Kentucky
A progressive weather system will bring widespread rain to the entire state on Sunday, June 14. Showers will begin in Western Kentucky during the morning, reaching Central Kentucky by afternoon and the Eastern mountains by evening. While no severe weather is expected, it will be a breezy day with rainfall totals locally exceeding one inch in Northern and Central Kentucky.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in rain occurrence and the absence of severe weather. Lower confidence in exact rainfall totals due to model spread in precipitation efficiency.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Rain will move in early Sunday morning and persist through midday. Expect around 0.15 inches of rainfall before clouds break in the afternoon, leading to a pleasant evening.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect periodic rain showers through the first half of the day. Around 0.15 inches of rain is likely, with wind gusts up to 25 mph before skies begin to clear late.
Southwest Pennyrile
Rain showers will arrive around breakfast and continue off and on until mid-afternoon. Total accumulations will be around 0.15 inches.
Barren River
A soggy day is in store for the Bowling Green area. Expect steady rain through much of the afternoon, totaling around 0.25 inches, with breezy conditions.
Louisville Metro
Prepare for a wet day with rain totals reaching around 0.75 inches. The heaviest rain will fall during the afternoon, which could lead to minor ponding on city streets.
Lincoln Trail
Rain will be off and on all day, totaling roughly 0.15 inches. It will be a gray and breezy day, but no heavy downpours are expected.
Lake Cumberland
Rain will arrive around midday and linger into the evening. Around 0.25 inches of rain is expected, and it will remain quite humid throughout the day.
Northern Kentucky
Prepare for a very wet Sunday with rainfall totals near 0.80 inches. Winds will also be gusty, reaching 30 mph during the peak of the afternoon rain.
Inner Bluegrass
Rain will be most persistent between late morning and mid-afternoon. Expect around 0.30 inches of total rain and breezy conditions through the evening.
Bluegrass Foothills
Showers will linger longer here than in western areas. Expect around 0.40 inches of rain, with the steadiest rainfall occurring in the late afternoon.
Northeast Kentucky
The morning will start warm and dry, but rain showers will move in by late afternoon. Total accumulations around 0.20 inches are expected after sunset.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect rain showers to be persistent through the evening hours in the mountains. Around 0.65 inches of rain is expected, which can lead to quick runoff.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The NAM model verifies with localized mesoscale forcing, leading to rainfall amounts over 1.25 inches in the Louisville-to-Cincinnati corridor and Southeast Coalfields. Strong momentum transfer results in wind gusts reaching 35 mph, causing minor ponding on roadways.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The global models (Euro/GFS) verify, showing a more 'smeared' and lighter precipitation field. Rainfall totals remain under 0.25 inches for most, and the system clears the state 3 hours faster than expected, leading to a largely dry Sunday evening.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Boundary Passage Timing
The Euro and NAM suggest a faster clearing trend behind the trough, while the GFS keeps lingering light POPs through late Sunday night.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro handles mid-level dry slots and the cessation of stratiform rain more accurately than the GFS in summer synoptic setups.
The Rainfall Volume Disconnect
A significant discrepancy exists between the NAM and the global models (GFS/ECMWF) regarding liquid totals. The NAM produces a bullseye of 1.00"+ rainfall along the I-71 corridor and the Southeast mountains, while the globals show a much lighter 0.25" to 0.40" swath.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM's superior resolution of the 500mb vorticity maximum and mesoscale orographic lift in the Coalfields makes its higher totals more plausible for a progressive shortwave event than the GFS 'smear' effect.
Celestial Almanac
New Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.