Saturday, June 13
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 13 at 1:23AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
Light winds, clear skies, and lingering lower level moisture will combine to produce patchy dense fog across portions of western Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and far southern Illinois. Visibility may drop to 1/4 mile or less. Conditions will improve by 7 AM or shortly thereafter. Use caution if travelling early this morning. If you encounter dense fog, take it slow and use low beam headlights.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 13 at 4:05AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
Calm winds and clear skies are helping temperatures drop, and with moisture remaining from yesterday's rain, patchy dense fog is expected over south central Kentucky. Visibility may drop to and below 1/4 mile. Conditions are expected to improve after sunrise.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 13 at 5:10AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
Calm winds, clear skies, and lingering lower level moisture will combine to produce patchy dense fog across portions of western Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and far southern Illinois. Visibility may drop to 1/4 mile or less. Conditions will improve by 8 AM or shortly thereafter. Use caution if traveling early this morning. If you encounter dense fog, take it slow and use low beam headlights.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 13 at 4:23PM CDT until June 13 at 4:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 423 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of Livermore, or 9 miles south of Calhoun, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD Quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Damage to vehicles is expected. Locations impacted include... Sacramento and Bremen.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Afternoon Rain West, Lingering Summer Heat East
A weak mid-level trough will approach from the west on Saturday, bringing increasing cloudiness and light to moderate rain showers to Western and Central Kentucky. The eastern third of the state will remain under the influence of a departing ridge, maintaining dry conditions and peak summer warmth through the day.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement exists regarding temperatures and the overall spatial distribution (West wet / East dry), but timing differences between the NAM and global models on the 12-hour scale introduce minor uncertainty.
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Purchase Area
A cloudy day is in store with rain chances increasing significantly after 1:00 PM. Expect steady light rain through the evening with accumulations around 0.35 inches.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a warm and humid day. Clouds will thicken by mid-afternoon with rain showers moving in after 4:00 PM. Rainfall totals will be near 0.20 inches.
Southwest Pennyrile
Cloudy skies will dominate from noon onward. Scattered rain showers are expected through the afternoon and evening with accumulations around 0.20 inches.
Barren River
The morning will stay dry and warm. Rain chances increase after 6:00 PM as the system moves east. Expect around 0.10 inches of rain.
Louisville Metro
A warm and mostly dry day will give way to a few light rain showers after sunset. Rainfall will be minimal, likely under 0.05 inches.
Lincoln Trail
Enjoy a pleasant Saturday with sun and clouds. A stray shower is possible very late in the evening, but most areas will remain dry.
Lake Cumberland
A great day for outdoor plans with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 80s. Clouds will increase overnight with only a tiny chance of a sprinkle.
Northern Kentucky
Expect blue skies and comfortable temperatures for mid-June. No rain is expected as high pressure remains in control.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington and the surrounding area will enjoy a beautiful summer day with highs in the mid-80s and clear skies.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a warm day with plenty of sunshine and highs near 84 degrees. No rain is anticipated for Richmond or Danville.
Northeast Kentucky
One of the warmest spots in the state today. Expect sunny skies with highs reaching the upper 80s.
Southeast Kentucky
A clear and hot June day. Temperatures in the valleys will reach the high 80s under bright blue skies.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the moisture plume from the southwest phases more aggressively with the incoming trough, rainfall totals in the Purchase and Pennyrile regions could exceed 0.50 inches, with light rain spreading as far east as the I-75 corridor by sunset.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry layer between 850mb and 700mb holds firm, the system may manifest largely as virga or light sprinkles, with measurable rainfall staying confined to the far western counties.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Timing Tug-of-War
The NAM suggests a morning start for precipitation (12Z-18Z) driven by a fast-moving shortwave, whereas the GFS and Euro delay onset until the afternoon and evening (18Z-00Z) as a more defined surface boundary approaches.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides a superior middle ground for synoptic timing and handles the erosion of the eastern dry air mass more realistically than the NAM's 'precip smear' or the GFS's slightly slower progression.
Purchase QPF Discrepancy
A significant gap exists in rainfall intensity, with the GFS calling for nearly a half-inch of rain in the west while the NAM barely generates a trace.
Why BLEND Wins
The GFS likely over-amplifies the moisture convergence, but the NAM is too dry given the strength of the incoming trough. A blend favoring the Euro/GFS totals is more meteorologically sound.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.