Friday, June 12
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Lake Wind Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory issued June 10 at 11:25PM CDT until June 11 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph expected.
WHERE Crab Orchard and Rend Lake in Illinois, Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley in Kentucky, and Lake Wappapello in Missouri.
WHEN From 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday.
IMPACTS Strong winds and rough waves on area lakes will create hazardous conditions for small craft.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 11 at 3:31PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
The combination of temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s and high humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index values in the 95 to 105 degree range. Those planning to be outdoors for extended periods of time should drink plenty of water, wear light clothing, and take frequent breaks.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 12 at 4:49AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
A line of thunderstorms is sinking southeastward across southeast Missouri and western Kentucky early this morning. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, torrential downpours, and frequent lightning can be expected.
Morning Showers and Gusty Breezes Followed by Late Clearing
A progressive shortwave trough will sweep across the Commonwealth today, bringing a quick-moving swath of light to moderate rain showers. Skies will clear from west to east during the afternoon.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall synoptic setup and precipitation type. Slight penalties applied for minor timing differences between the models and the intensity of rain in the southern counties.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Rain showers will be most frequent before 10 AM. Expect wet roads for the early commute, but sunshine will return by lunch.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a few hours of steady rain before dawn. Wind gusts up to 34 mph are possible as the rain moves through early.
Southwest Pennyrile
A quick round of light rain will pass through between sunrise and noon, followed by a warm and partly cloudy afternoon.
Barren River
Scattered rain showers will move through during the morning. By 3 PM, clouds will start to break, allowing for a sunny evening.
Louisville Metro
Rain showers will pass through the Metro area during the morning commute. Clearing is expected by the lunch hour.
Lincoln Trail
Occasional rain showers will occur throughout the morning hours. Expect around 0.2 inches of rain before clouds brighten by late afternoon.
Lake Cumberland
Rain is most likely between late morning and mid-afternoon. It will be a warm day with highs in the mid-80s.
Northern Kentucky
A quick round of rain showers will pass through during the morning. Expect a breezy morning with conditions drying by afternoon.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will experience gusty winds up to 35 mph this morning. Light rain will move through during the middle of the day.
Bluegrass Foothills
Rain showers will peak around the lunch hour, with clearing skies expected into the evening hours.
Northeast Kentucky
Most of the morning will be dry. Rain is expected between noon and 6 PM before clearing out overnight.
Southeast Kentucky
It will be a hot day with highs in the upper 80s. Expect around 0.25 inches of rain, with the wettest window in the late afternoon.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the moisture plume maximizes and interacts more robustly with the Muldraugh Escarpment or Eastern KY terrain, localized rainfall totals could exceed 0.50 inches, and clouds could linger into the early evening statewide.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the mid-level dry slot arrives faster and dewpoint depressions remain large, precipitation may manifest largely as virga (evaporating before hitting the ground) in the Bluegrass and Northeast, leading to negligible accumulations.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Wind Gust Discrepancy
The GFS and NAM suggest a much tighter pressure gradient with wind gusts exceeding 30 mph, while the Euro shows a more subdued wind field with negligible gusts.
Why GFS Wins
In summer trough passages, global models often under-forecast the momentum transfer from the low-level jet. The GFS and NAM are better at capturing the 850mb wind field which will likely mix down in the morning hours.
The Southwest Moisture Conflict
The NAM predicts a robust moisture plume for the Southwest Pennyrile with totals near 0.50", whereas the GFS shows the moisture axis staying north, resulting in nearly zero rainfall for the same region.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides a consistent middle-ground solution (0.15-0.20") that avoids the NAM's typical convective bullseye bias and the GFS's tendency to dry-slot southern regions too aggressively during fast-moving troughs.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.