Thursday, June 11
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 10 at 12:17PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
The combination of temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s combined with high humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree range each afternoon Today and Thursday. Early season stretches of heat and humidity can catch folks off guard if they are unprepared. If planning to be outdoors for extended periods drink plenty of water, where light and loose clothing, and take frequent breaks.
Lake Wind Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory issued June 10 at 11:25PM CDT until June 11 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph expected.
WHERE Crab Orchard and Rend Lake in Illinois, Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley in Kentucky, and Lake Wappapello in Missouri.
WHEN From 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday.
IMPACTS Strong winds and rough waves on area lakes will create hazardous conditions for small craft.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 11 at 1:10AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
High temperatures reaching the lower 90s this afternoon will combine with high humidity values to produce heat index readings peaking in the 100 to 105 range. This will be the 3rd consecutive day with heat index readings exceeding 100 degrees in many locations. With this being the first heat wave of the season be particularly alert to heat related illness potential and take the necessary action to protect yourself.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 11 at 2:35AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
The combination of temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s combined with high humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index values in the 95 to 105 degree range. If planning to be outdoors for extended periods, drink plenty of water, wear light clothing, and take frequent breaks.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 11 at 5:46AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The combination of temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 and high humidity will result in the heat index reaching 95 to 100 degrees this afternoon. If planning to be outdoors for extended periods today, drink plenty of water, wear light and loose clothing, and take frequent breaks.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 11 at 11:33AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The combination of temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 and high humidity will result in the heat index reaching 95 to 100 degrees this afternoon. If planning to be outdoors for extended periods today, drink plenty of water, wear light and loose clothing, and take frequent breaks.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 11 at 3:31PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
The combination of temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s and high humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index values in the 95 to 105 degree range. Those planning to be outdoors for extended periods of time should drink plenty of water, wear light clothing, and take frequent breaks.
Summer Heat Bakes the West While the Northeast Soaks
A sharp contrast will define Kentucky's weather today as a powerful subtropical ridge over the Mississippi Valley brings intense heat to western and central regions, while a stalled surface trough focuses persistent rain and localized heavy downpours across the northern and northeastern counties.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the temperature gradient across the state, but moderate uncertainty regarding the exact rainfall totals in the Northeast due to the convective nature of the trough.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a hot and dry day with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will reach the low 90s, and it will feel like peak summer.
Northwest Pennyrile
Very warm and humid conditions will prevail. A stray shower is possible late, but most areas will remain dry.
Southwest Pennyrile
A typical hot June day with highs near 90. Expect plenty of sun and high humidity.
Barren River
Mostly sunny skies will lead to a hot afternoon with temperatures peaking around 89 degrees.
Louisville Metro
A humid day with plenty of cloud cover. A few light showers are possible, but significant rain is unlikely.
Lincoln Trail
A warm and overcast day. While it will be humid, most of the rain will stay to the east.
Lake Cumberland
Morning clouds will linger, leading to a muggy afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 80s.
Northern Kentucky
Rain is likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Around a quarter of an inch of rain is possible.
Inner Bluegrass
A few morning showers followed by a breezy and humid afternoon. Rain totals will be very light.
Bluegrass Foothills
Rain will be off and on throughout the day. It will feel very muggy as temperatures reach 87 degrees.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect frequent rain today, with heavy downpours likely this afternoon. Accumulations around 0.75 inches are expected, with higher amounts locally.
Southeast Kentucky
A mix of morning rain and afternoon heat. Humidity will be very high with temperatures in the low 90s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The NAM verifies its aggressive convective totals, leading to localized rainfall exceeding 1.5 inches in the Northeast and causing minor urban flooding, while the western ridge holds firm, pushing temperatures into the mid-90s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Widespread cloud debris from the eastern trough drifts further west, suppressing temperatures in the Purchase to the upper 80s and weakening the convergence needed for significant rain in the Northeast.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Western Heat Margin
The NAM suggests clear skies and highs in the low 90s for western KY, whereas GFS introduces light precip 'smear' and cooler temps.
Why NAM Wins
GFS has a known bias for 'phantom' light precipitation in high-pressure regimes. The strength of the 594dm ridge favors the drier, hotter NAM solution.
The Northeast QPF Divergence
The NAM predicts a significant rainfall bullseye in Northeast Kentucky exceeding 1.0 inch, while the GFS and Euro show only light, scattered sprinkles under 0.1 inch.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM's higher resolution better captures the localized convergence along the surface trough and the high-PWAT environment. GFS tends to 'smear' precipitation, likely under-representing the intensity of this convective setup.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.