Thursday, June 11
Widespread Soaking Rain Across Kentucky Thursday
A moist airmass will overspread the Commonwealth on Thursday, resulting in a day of gray skies and persistent stratiform rain. While rainfall totals will remain below flooding thresholds, the consistency of the precipitation will impact outdoor activities statewide.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high for the occurrence of rain due to strong synoptic forcing, but the Day 7 lead time and uncertainty regarding the exact placement of the highest rainfall axis reduce the score.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a damp day with rain totals around 0.21 inches. The heaviest rain will likely fall during the mid-afternoon hours.
Northwest Pennyrile
Rain will be most persistent during the morning hours, with 0.45 inches of total accumulation expected by sunset.
Southwest Pennyrile
A cloudy and wet day is in store. The most significant rain will fall during the afternoon hours before tapering off, totaling 0.36 inches.
Barren River
Expect a very wet morning and afternoon. Rain totals of 0.44 inches are likely, keeping the atmosphere very humid.
Louisville Metro
Commuters should expect wet roads during both drives. Total rainfall will be 0.38 inches.
Lincoln Trail
Persistent rain is expected throughout the morning and early afternoon, with totals of 0.44 inches.
Lake Cumberland
Rain will be steadiest in the morning, followed by scattered showers in the afternoon, totaling 0.33 inches.
Northern Kentucky
It will be a damp day for Northern Kentucky, though rain totals will be lighter at 0.28 inches.
Inner Bluegrass
Rain will be most consistent during the morning hours, totaling 0.39 inches for Lexington and surrounding areas.
Bluegrass Foothills
The morning commute will be wet. Rain will remain steady until late afternoon, totaling 0.38 inches.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will peak during the morning hours with around 0.34 inches of rain expected.
Southeast Kentucky
Rain will arrive later in Southeast Kentucky than the rest of the state, with 0.26 inches of rain expected.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level jet streak intensifies or the shortwave slows, isentropic lift could be prolonged, pushing rainfall totals toward the 0.75 to 1.00 inch range, particularly in central Kentucky.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If a southern stream dry slot intrudes into the moisture plume earlier than expected, precipitation could become intermittent and light, keeping totals under 0.10 inches for most of the state.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Thermal Muting
Models are fighting over the daytime high temperatures. The NAM and Euro keep thick cloud cover and rain locked in, suppressing highs into the mid-70s, while the GFS attempts to break clouds in the west, pushing temps into the mid-80s.
Why EURO Wins
Given the high PWAT values and the positioning of the shortwave trough, significant cloud breaks are unlikely until well after the peak heating cycle.
The Moisture Margin
There is a disagreement between the global models regarding the depth of the moisture plume. The Euro and GEM maintain a saturated column through the mid-levels, while the GFS suggests some dry air entrainment at 700mb which would reduce precipitation efficiency.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro's handling of deep moisture plumes in stagnant synoptic setups is historically more reliable than the GFS's tendency for premature drying.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.