Wednesday, June 10
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 9 at 9:50AM EDT until June 10 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following area, Jefferson IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Anderson, Bourbon, Boyle, Casey, Clark KY, Fayette, Franklin, Garrard, Harrison KY, Henry, Jessamine, Lincoln, Madison, Mercer, Nicholas, Scott KY, Trimble and Woodford.
WHEN Through Wednesday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Repeated rounds of thunderstorms have produced 3-5 inches across the watch area over the last 24 hours. Additional bouts of heavy rainfall are expected through Wednesday morning that will likely lead to additional flash flooding across the area. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 9 at 9:50AM EDT until June 10 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison IN, Orange, Perry, Scott IN and Washington IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Adair, Allen, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Clinton, Cumberland, Edmonson, Grayson, Green, Hancock, Hardin, Hart, Jefferson, Larue, Logan, Marion, Meade, Metcalfe, Monroe, Nelson, Ohio, Oldham, Russell, Shelby, Simpson, Spencer, Taylor, Warren and Washington KY.
WHEN Through Wednesday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Repeated rounds of thunderstorms have produced 3-5 inches across the watch area over the last 24 hours. Additional bouts of heavy rainfall are expected through Wednesday morning that will likely lead to additional flash flooding across the area. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Heat Advisory
Heat Advisory issued June 9 at 1:34PM CDT until June 9 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Heat index values up to 105 expected.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN Until 8 PM CDT this evening.
IMPACTS Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 9 at 2:36PM EDT until June 10 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE The Flood Watch includes the Kentucky counties of Bath, Elliott, Estill, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell, Rowan, Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Rockcastle, Wayne, Whitley, Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Jackson, Knox, Lee, Morgan, Owsley, and Wolfe.
WHEN The Flood Watch is in effect from 6 PM EDT this evening through noon EDT on Wednesday.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low lying and flood prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into Wednesday. They may be persistent in some locations and result in heavy rainfall and flooding. However, there is still considerable uncertainty as to where and when this is most likely to occur.
Monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flash Flood Warnings. People living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued June 9 at 2:46PM CDT until June 9 at 8:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Cluster of heavy rainfall associated with slow moving thunderstorms will work over the area this evening. This could lead to localized flooding caused by excessive rainfall.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, Allen, Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Logan, Simpson and Warren.
WHEN Until 845 PM CDT Tuesday.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. Overflowing poor drainage areas. Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 244 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Bowling Green, Glasgow, Russellville, Scottsville, Morgantown, Brownsville, Plum Springs, Crestmoor, Mount Victor and Memphis Junction. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 9 at 4:26PM EDT until June 10 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE The following county, in southeast Indiana, Switzerland and the following counties, in northern Kentucky, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and Owen.
WHEN From 10 PM EDT this evening through Wednesday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Repeated rounds of storms tonight into early Wednesday morning may result in greater than 2 inches of rain in a short period of time. Torrential rainfall rates may lead to instances of flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks and small waterways.
People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 9 at 4:21PM CDT until June 10 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE All of southwest Indiana and portions of western Kentucky, including the following areas, Christian, Daviess, Henderson, Hopkins, McLean, Muhlenberg, Todd, Union KY and Webster.
WHEN Until 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ Wednesday.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional thunderstorms capable of producing heavy heavy rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible tonight. This would lead to additional areas of flash flooding.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 9 at 11:50PM EDT until June 10 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of east central, south central, and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in east central Kentucky, Bath, Elliott, Estill, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell and Rowan. In south central Kentucky, Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Rockcastle, Wayne and Whitley. In southeast Kentucky, Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Jackson, Knox, Lee, Morgan, Owsley and Wolfe.
WHEN Through Wednesday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low lying and flood prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected into the morning. They may be persistent in some locations resulting in heavy rainfall and flooding. However, there is still some uncertainty as to where and when this is most likely to occur. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flash Flood Warnings. People living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 10 at 1:38AM EDT until June 10 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Crawford, Floyd, Harrison IN, Jefferson IN, Orange, Scott IN and Washington IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Adair, Anderson, Bourbon, Boyle, Bullitt, Casey, Clark KY, Clinton, Cumberland, Fayette, Franklin, Garrard, Green, Hardin, Harrison KY, Henry, Jefferson, Jessamine, Larue, Lincoln, Madison, Marion, Meade, Mercer, Nelson, Nicholas, Oldham, Russell, Scott KY, Shelby, Spencer, Taylor, Trimble, Washington KY and Woodford.
WHEN Until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Another round of heavy rainfall may develop overnight, and already saturated grounds from previous heavy rainfall could quickly lead to new onset Flash Flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 10 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
The combination of temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s combined with high humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree range each afternoon Today and Thursday. Early season stretches of heat and humidity can catch folks off guard if they are unprepared. If planning to be outdoors for extended periods drink plenty of water, where light and loose clothing, and take frequent breaks.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 10 at 1:37AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
Today is expected to be the second of three days with high temperatures stretching into the low to mid 90s with oppressive humidity values. Heat index values of 100 to 105 are forecast area wide. With this being the first strong heat wave of the season be particularly alert to heat related illness potential and take the necessary action to protect yourself.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 10 at 3:01AM EDT until June 10 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Floyd, Harrison IN, Jefferson IN, Scott IN and Washington IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Anderson, Bourbon, Boyle, Bullitt, Casey, Clark KY, Fayette, Franklin, Garrard, Harrison KY, Henry, Jefferson, Jessamine, Lincoln, Madison, Marion, Mercer, Nelson, Nicholas, Oldham, Russell, Scott KY, Shelby, Spencer, Trimble, Washington KY and Woodford.
WHEN Until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Another round of heavy rainfall may develop overnight, and already saturated grounds from previous heavy rainfall could quickly lead to new onset Flash Flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 10 at 6:51AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The combination of temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 and high humidity will result in the heat index reaching 95 to 100 today and then again on Thursday. With these being the first hot days of the year, it may take some time to get acclimated to these conditions. So be extra cautious and take precautions to deal with the heat. If planning to be outdoors for extended periods drink plenty of water, where light and loose clothing, and take frequent breaks.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 10 at 8:23AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
At 820 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong thunderstorms producing heavy rain along a line extending from near Camp Dix to Chapmanville. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD A quick 1 to 2 inches of rain.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Flooding of poor drainage and low-lying areas along with reduced visibility. The morning commute will be impacted. Locations impacted include... Grayson, Madison, Louisa, Logan, Olive Hill, Wayne, Beech Fork State Park, Rush, Yatesville Lake State Park, Chapmanville, and Fort Gay This includes the following highways... Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 152 and 187. Route 119 between mile markers 27 and 59.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on small creeks and streams, and ponding of water in urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses, as well as other poor drainage areas and low lying spots. Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Move to higher ground.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued June 10 at 8:39AM EDT until June 10 at 11:45AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE The following counties, in northeast Kentucky, Lewis. In northern Kentucky, Mason.
WHEN Until 1145 AM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 839 AM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible. - Some locations that may experience flooding include... Maysville, Washington, Lewisburg, Tollesboro, Camp Dix, Head of Grassy, Glen Springs, Ribolt, Epworth, Petersville, Stricklett, Rectorville, Orangeburg, Kinniconick, Harris, Somo, Emerson and Moranburg.
Keep children away from storm drains, culverts, creeks and streams. Water levels can rise rapidly and sweep children away. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. To report flooding, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued June 10 at 9:16AM EDT until June 10 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
FFWRLX The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northeastern Lawrence County in northeastern Kentucky... Northwestern Boone County in central West Virginia... West Central Kanawha County in central West Virginia... Lincoln County in central West Virginia... Central Wayne County in western West Virginia... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 916 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Madison, Louisa, Wayne, Fort Gay, Ranger, Gill, Harts, Spurlockville, Kiahsville, East Lynn Lake, Julian, Alum Creek, Centerville, Danville, Branchland, Myra, Palermo, Mud, East Lynn and Griffithsville. This includes Route 119 between mile markers 51 and 66...and between mile markers 68 and 69.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Report flooding to the National Weather Service by calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 10 at 11:33AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The combination of temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 and high humidity will result in the heat index reaching 95 to 100 today and then again on Thursday. With these being the first hot days of the year, it may take some time to get acclimated to these conditions. So be extra cautious and take precautions to deal with the heat. If planning to be outdoors for extended periods drink plenty of water, where light and loose clothing, and take frequent breaks.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 10 at 12:17PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
The combination of temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s combined with high humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree range each afternoon Today and Thursday. Early season stretches of heat and humidity can catch folks off guard if they are unprepared. If planning to be outdoors for extended periods drink plenty of water, where light and loose clothing, and take frequent breaks.
Heavy Rain Threat North; Summer Heat Persists South
A stalled surface boundary along the Ohio River will serve as a focal point for persistent rain and potential localized flooding across Northern and Northeast Kentucky. Meanwhile, the southern half of the Commonwealth will remain under the influence of a building subtropical ridge, resulting in hot, humid, and largely dry conditions.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the temperature split between the hot south and cooler north; however, confidence is tempered by the significant model disagreement regarding the magnitude of rainfall totals in the Northern Kentucky flood risk zone.
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Purchase Area
Expect a very hot summer day with high temperatures reaching 89 degrees and plenty of sunshine. No rain is expected as high pressure dominates.
Northwest Pennyrile
A warm and humid day is in store. While a few clouds may drift in from the north, it will stay dry with highs near 89 degrees.
Southwest Pennyrile
Mostly sunny skies and high humidity will make for a typical summer afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 80s.
Barren River
Bowling Green will remain dry today with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will top out at 88 degrees with high humidity.
Louisville Metro
Expect a mix of clouds and sun with a few showers possible during the morning hours. Rainfall totals will be around 0.4 inches before drying out in the afternoon.
Lincoln Trail
Mostly cloudy skies will persist through the first half of the day. A stray sprinkle is possible, but most areas will remain dry with highs in the upper 80s.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a mostly cloudy day with humid conditions. Highs will reach the mid-80s, and while it will stay dry, it will be quite breezy on the lake.
Northern Kentucky
Significant rainfall is expected today. Accumulations around 1.5 inches are likely, with higher amounts possible in some areas. Be alert for localized flash flooding in low-lying spots.
Inner Bluegrass
Rain will be common during the morning and early afternoon hours. Expect around 0.4 inches of rain before skies begin to clear late in the day.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a mostly cloudy and breezy day. Rain will likely stay to your north, though a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out during the morning.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will be persistent throughout the morning, with accumulations around 0.6 inches. It will be a damp and humid day in the Ashland area.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will see plenty of clouds and potentially some morning fog. Highs will be in the mid-80s with high humidity.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' scenario occurs if the moisture-rich boundary remains anchored over Northern Kentucky with repetitive convective training, resulting in rainfall totals exceeding 5 inches and widespread flash flooding.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario occurs if the shortwave energy is more progressive and drier mid-level air entrains faster, shifting the rain shield out of the state by mid-morning and leaving only minor accumulations under 0.5 inches.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Great QPF Divide
A massive discrepancy exists between the mesoscale NAM and global models (GFS/Euro) regarding rainfall totals. The NAM is signaling an extreme 4-5 inch bullseye due to training convection, while the GFS and Euro suggest a more modest 0.5 to 1.0 inch stratiform event.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM traditionally handles shallow moisture convergence and the thermodynamics of stalled boundaries with higher precision than global models. Given PWATs over 2 inches and strong jet support, the potential for high-efficiency training rain is physically plausible, though the raw 4.5 inch total is likely an outlier.
The Purchase Dry Slot
Models disagree on how far south the light precipitation shield will extend. The Euro brings light rain into the TN border, while the GFS and NAM maintain a sharp cutoff near the Western Kentucky Parkway.
Why GFS Wins
The building ridge to the southwest and significant dewpoint depressions in forecast soundings suggest a high risk of virga for any light echoes attempting to move into the Purchase and Pennyrile regions.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.