Wednesday, June 10
Soggy and Humid: Widespread Light Rain for Kentucky
A slow-moving moisture plume will transit the state on Wednesday, bringing high humidity and persistent light to moderate rain. While not a severe weather producer, the overcast skies and damp conditions will define the day for most of the Commonwealth.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high regarding the presence of rain and high humidity, but lowered by the 6-day lead time and uncertainty regarding the eastern extent of meaningful accumulation due to dry air aloft.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Rain will be most consistent in the morning hours before tapering to scattered drizzle. Expect accumulations around 0.3 inches.
Northwest Pennyrile
This region will likely see the highest rainfall totals in the state, with around 0.5 inches expected through the day.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect off-and-on light rain with high humidity levels. Total rainfall should be approximately 0.33 inches.
Barren River
A grey, damp day is in store for Bowling Green, with steady light rain leading to about 0.28 inches of accumulation.
Louisville Metro
The morning commute will be wet, and humidity will keep the roads damp all day. Expect around 0.42 inches of rain.
Lincoln Trail
Damp conditions will persist through the afternoon, especially along the ridges, with totals of 0.34 inches.
Lake Cumberland
While clouds will be thick, actual rain reaching the ground will be minimal, totaling only about 0.07 inches.
Northern Kentucky
Steady light rain will be the theme for the Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky area, totaling around 0.29 inches.
Inner Bluegrass
A gloomy but mild day with light showers totaling 0.18 inches of rain.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a grey day with occasional drizzle. Rainfall will be light, around 0.11 inches.
Northeast Kentucky
Very little rain is expected to reach the ground in this region, with totals around 0.05 inches.
Southeast Kentucky
Very light rain in the morning (around 0.04 inches) will likely lead to a foggy and humid night.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If moisture bands align with better low-level convergence, localized totals could reach 0.75-1.00 inches in Western Kentucky.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If mid-level dry air entrainment is more aggressive, eastern regions may see little more than a persistent drizzle or virga, with totals under 0.05 inches.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Dry Slot Dilemma
A conflict exists between the global models regarding how much dry air in the 700-500mb layer will penetrate Eastern Kentucky, which would significantly limit surface rainfall.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro's superior handling of moisture 'dry slots' and synoptic cutoffs makes its conservative totals for Eastern Kentucky more physically plausible in this weak-flow regime.
Western Moisture Loading
Disagreement on the intensity of the moisture plume entering the Purchase region; some models suggest higher convective rates.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro's 'Steady Hand' approach is preferred here as the environment lacks the instability required for the higher-intensity 'bullseyes' often suggested by the NAM.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.