Tuesday, June 9
Widespread Morning Rain Tapers to Cloudy Skies Late
A damp start to Tuesday is expected across Kentucky as a broad area of light to moderate rain moves through. Precipitation will be most consistent during the morning hours, making for a wet commute for much of the state. Rain will gradually taper to drizzle and then end from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours as clouds remain persistent. No severe weather or thunderstorms are expected.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high regarding the occurrence of rain but moderate on the exact timing of the western clearing edge. The five-day lead time introduces standard timing uncertainties.
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Purchase Area
Rain will be most consistent during the morning hours with around 0.38 inches of accumulation expected. Clouds will linger through the evening after the rain moves out.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect steady rain through the first half of the day with accumulations near 0.38 inches. Conditions will gradually dry out during the late afternoon hours.
Southwest Pennyrile
Rain will be frequent during the morning and midday hours before clearing for a quiet night. Expect about 0.3 inches of total rainfall.
Barren River
A rainy morning will transition to a cloudy but drier afternoon. Total rainfall will be around 0.28 inches.
Louisville Metro
Rain showers will be most active during the morning rush. Expect overcast skies to remain for much of the day with 0.3 inches of rain.
Lincoln Trail
Rain will move across the region through the morning, totaling near 0.27 inches. The afternoon will remain cloudy but mostly dry.
Lake Cumberland
The morning and midday will be wet with rain tapering to drizzle by evening. Expect accumulations around 0.28 inches.
Northern Kentucky
Expect periods of light rain through the afternoon with totals of 0.24 inches. Skies will remain overcast until late evening.
Inner Bluegrass
A wet morning is in store for Lexington and surrounding areas with around 0.26 inches of rain. Rain will be light but steady.
Bluegrass Foothills
Showers will be most frequent before noon, totaling approximately 0.26 inches. Expect low clouds to persist through the day.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will be lighter in this region compared to the rest of the state. Expect less than a tenth of an inch of accumulation.
Southeast Kentucky
A damp day is expected with light rain showers totaling 0.13 inches. Mountain valleys will likely trap moisture, keeping clouds in place.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' scenario involves localized training of rain bands, particularly in Western Kentucky, which could result in rainfall totals approaching 0.75 inches if the mid-level drying is delayed.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario occurs if the mid-level dry slot arrives several hours earlier than modeled, limiting total rainfall to less than a tenth of an inch for most of the state.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Clearing Edge Conflict
The GFS tends to maintain light precipitation (the 'smear effect') much longer than the Euro or GEM, which show a sharper back-edge to the rain shield as dry air moves in.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro handles mid-level dry slots and the cessation of stratiform rain more accurately in decaying synoptic setups compared to the GFS's tendency for phantom light QPF.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.