kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Mon, Jun 8
Wed, Jun 10
Forecast For

Tuesday, June 9

Updated Jun 9, 7:17 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Heat Advisory

Jun 8, 2:52 PM -> Jun 9, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 8 at 1:52PM CDT until June 9 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jun 8, 3:23 PM -> Jun 9, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 8 at 3:23PM EDT until June 9 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 8, 3:31 PM -> Jun 9, 4:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 8 at 2:31PM CDT until June 9 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jun 8, 3:31 PM -> Jun 9, 4:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 8 at 2:31PM CDT until June 9 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 8, 8:06 PM -> Jun 8, 11:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 8 at 7:06PM CDT until June 8 at 10:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 8, 9:06 PM -> Jun 8, 9:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 8 at 8:06PM CDT until June 8 at 8:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 8, 9:24 PM -> Jun 8, 10:15 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 8 at 8:24PM CDT until June 8 at 9:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 8, 9:29 PM -> Jun 8, 9:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 8 at 8:29PM CDT until June 8 at 8:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 8, 10:39 PM -> Jun 9, 1:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 8 at 9:39PM CDT until June 9 at 12:30AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 8, 11:10 PM -> Jun 9, 12:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 8 at 10:10PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 9, 12:15 AM -> Jun 9, 1:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 8 at 11:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 9, 12:25 AM -> Jun 9, 3:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 8 at 11:25PM CDT until June 9 at 2:30AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 9, 1:23 AM -> Jun 9, 4:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 9 at 12:23AM CDT until June 9 at 3:30AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 9, 1:28 AM -> Jun 9, 4:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 9 at 12:28AM CDT until June 9 at 3:30AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 9, 2:05 AM -> Jun 9, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 9 at 1:05AM CDT until June 9 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jun 9, 2:05 AM -> Jun 9, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 9 at 1:05AM CDT until June 9 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 9, 2:08 AM -> Jun 9, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 9 at 1:08AM CDT until June 9 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 9, 2:47 AM -> Jun 9, 6:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 9 at 1:47AM CDT until June 9 at 5:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 9, 3:02 AM -> Jun 9, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 9 at 2:02AM CDT until June 9 at 5:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 9, 3:31 AM -> Jun 9, 7:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 9 at 2:31AM CDT until June 9 at 6:30AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 9, 4:26 AM -> Jun 9, 8:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 9 at 3:26AM CDT until June 9 at 7:30AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 9, 4:41 AM -> Jun 9, 8:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 9 at 3:41AM CDT until June 9 at 7:45AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 9, 5:59 AM -> Jun 9, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 9 at 5:59AM EDT until June 9 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 9, 9:47 AM -> Jun 9, 12:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 9 at 9:47AM EDT until June 9 at 12:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 9, 9:50 AM -> Jun 10, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 9 at 9:50AM EDT until June 10 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 9, 9:50 AM -> Jun 10, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 9 at 9:50AM EDT until June 10 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 9, 9:53 AM -> Jun 9, 1:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 9 at 9:53AM EDT until June 9 at 1:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 9, 9:55 AM -> Jun 9, 12:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 9 at 9:55AM EDT until June 9 at 12:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 9, 10:14 AM -> Jun 9, 1:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 9 at 10:14AM EDT until June 9 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 9, 10:40 AM -> Jun 9, 1:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 9 at 10:40AM EDT until June 9 at 1:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 9, 10:41 AM -> Jun 9, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 9 at 9:41AM CDT until June 9 at 3:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 9, 10:52 AM -> Jun 9, 3:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 9 at 10:52AM EDT until June 9 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 9, 10:54 AM -> Jun 9, 12:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 9 at 10:54AM EDT until June 9 at 12:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 9, 11:20 AM -> Jun 9, 1:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 9 at 11:20AM EDT until June 9 at 1:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 9, 12:06 PM -> Jun 9, 3:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 9 at 12:06PM EDT until June 9 at 3:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 9, 12:12 PM -> Jun 9, 2:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 9 at 12:12PM EDT until June 9 at 2:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 9, 12:15 PM -> Jun 9, 3:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 9 at 12:15PM EDT until June 9 at 3:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 9, 12:41 PM -> Jun 9, 3:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 9 at 12:41PM EDT until June 9 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 9, 12:42 PM -> Jun 9, 3:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 9 at 12:42PM EDT until June 9 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 9, 1:03 PM -> Jun 9, 1:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 9 at 1:03PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 9, 1:03 PM -> Jun 9, 3:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 9 at 1:03PM EDT until June 9 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jun 9, 1:15 PM -> Jun 9, 1:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 9 at 1:15PM EDT until June 9 at 1:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 9, 1:18 PM -> Jun 9, 3:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 9 at 1:18PM EDT until June 9 at 3:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jun 9, 1:40 PM -> Jun 9, 4:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 9 at 1:40PM EDT until June 9 at 4:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 9, 1:46 PM -> Jun 9, 2:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 9 at 1:46PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 9, 1:52 PM -> Jun 9, 2:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 9 at 12:52PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 9, 2:07 PM -> Jun 9, 3:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 9 at 2:07PM EDT until June 9 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jun 9, 2:34 PM -> Jun 9, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued June 9 at 1:34PM CDT until June 9 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jun 9, 2:36 PM -> Jun 10, 12:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 9 at 2:36PM EDT until June 10 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 9, 2:37 PM -> Jun 9, 5:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 9 at 1:37PM CDT until June 9 at 4:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jun 9, 2:37 PM -> Jun 9, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 9 at 1:37PM CDT until June 9 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jun 9, 2:37 PM -> Jun 9, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 9 at 1:37PM CDT until June 9 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Jun 9, 2:53 PM -> Jun 9, 4:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued June 9 at 2:53PM EDT until June 9 at 4:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 9, 3:08 PM -> Jun 9, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 9 at 2:08PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 9, 3:10 PM -> Jun 9, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 9 at 2:10PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 9, 3:25 PM -> Jun 9, 4:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 9 at 2:25PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jun 9, 3:46 PM -> Jun 9, 9:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued June 9 at 2:46PM CDT until June 9 at 8:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 9, 3:51 PM -> Jun 9, 4:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 9 at 2:51PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 9, 3:57 PM -> Jun 9, 4:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 9 at 2:57PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 9, 4:03 PM -> Jun 9, 4:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 9 at 3:03PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jun 9, 4:12 PM -> Jun 9, 7:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued June 9 at 3:12PM CDT until June 9 at 6:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jun 9, 4:15 PM -> Jun 9, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued June 9 at 3:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jun 9, 4:26 PM -> Jun 10, 4:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 9 at 4:26PM EDT until June 10 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Jun 9, 5:21 PM -> Jun 10, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued June 9 at 4:21PM CDT until June 10 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Confidence
70%

Widespread Rain and Gusty Winds Target the Commonwealth

A moisture-laden system fueled by tropical air will move across Kentucky today, bringing widespread rain and gusty winds. The heaviest rainfall is expected across the western half of the state, where localized totals could exceed two inches, while the eastern regions will see more intermittent showers and higher humidity.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in rain occurrence and warm temperatures, but significant model disagreement on localized rainfall totals and peak wind gust intensity leads to a lower overall score.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Sultry Showers and Afternoon Clouds
Rain
87°/ 74°

Northwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Heaviest Rain and High Water Risk
Heavy_Rain
84°/ 71°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Rainy and Gusty Morning
Rain
85°/ 72°

Barren River

IMPACTFUL
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Wet and Windy in Bowling Green
Rain
83°/ 71°

Louisville Metro

IMPACTFUL
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Damp and Humid for the City
Rain
83°/ 72°

Lincoln Trail

IMPACTFUL
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Significant Rain and Strong Gusts
Rain
81°/ 70°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Cloudy and Damp at the Lake
Rain
79°/ 70°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Spotty Showers for the North
Rain
81°/ 71°

Inner Bluegrass

IMPACTFUL
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Wet Morning Drive in Lexington
Rain
78°/ 71°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Rain Showers and Humid Air
Rain
78°/ 70°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Afternoon Rain Arrives for Ashland
Rain
77°/ 71°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Damp and Foggy Mountain Morning
Rain
76°/ 70°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The NAM 'Bullseye' scenario: Convective training along a stalled surface boundary leads to 4+ inches of rain in the Northwest Pennyrile and 50mph wind gusts in the Bluegrass, resulting in localized flash flooding and minor wind damage.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The Euro 'Steady Hand' scenario: Faster entrainment of dry air into the mid-levels truncates rainfall totals to under 0.75 inches for most, with wind gusts remaining below 25mph as the LLJ stays elevated.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

LLJ Momentum Transfer

The NAM is much more aggressive with surface wind gusts (40-48 mph) than the Euro or GFS (25-30 mph), despite similar 850mb jet speeds.

NAM
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

The NAM's higher resolution typically captures the vertical mixing and momentum transfer of a low-level jet more accurately in high-moisture, high-shear summer environments.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS CORELINCOLN TRAILBARREN RIVER

The QPF Magnitude Conflict

Models disagree significantly on the intensity of rainfall. The NAM produces localized totals over 3 inches due to intense convective training, whereas the GFS and Euro show a more smeared, stratiform 0.75-1.25 inch event.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

While the NAM likely over-forecasts the bullseye, the high PWAT environment and stalled boundary suggest higher totals than the global models suggest; a blend captures the high-end risk without the NAM's typical bias.

Affected Regions
NORTHWEST PENNYRILELOUISVILLE METROLINCOLN TRAIL

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A classic summertime moist-adiabatic profile is in place. No inversions or warm noses are present, as the entire column from the surface to 500mb remains well above freezing.

Thermal Boundary

A weak surface trough and moisture boundary are stalled near the Ohio River, serving as a focal point for training showers.

Diurnal Trend

A subdued diurnal curve is expected state-wide due to thick cloud cover and rain, resulting in a narrow 10-15 degree spread between lows and highs.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A pre-frontal trough will pivot from west to east between 15z and 21z, though no significant airmass change is expected until later in the week.

Jet Stream Support

Excellent synoptic lift provided by the right-entrance region of a Great Lakes jet streak and a 40kt low-level jet (LLJ).

Energy Status

Vorticity maxima from a pivoting shortwave trough will move across the state between 09z and 18z, acting as the primary trigger for heavy rain bands.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Deeply saturated column in the west (RH > 85%). Northeast Kentucky faces an initial virga risk until 12z as low-level dry air is gradually overcome.

Precipitation Character

Mostly stratiform rain with embedded convective elements capable of high rainfall rates (1 inch per hour).

Flooding Context

Soils are not saturated, but urban areas in the Northwest Pennyrile should watch for ponding due to the training nature of the cells.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

Not applicable; temperatures are strictly tropical.

Crystal Habit

Not applicable.

Road Impact

Wet roads and reduced visibility will be the primary travel impacts.

Severe Risk

Instability & Shear

Atmospheric ingredients required for severe thunderstorms, including available fuel (CAPE) and storm organization (shear).

Shear Analysis

Modest speed shear exists (35-40kts) due to the LLJ, but directional shear is minimal.

Instability Context

Surface-based CAPE is very low (< 500 J/kg), keeping the threat of organized severe weather minimal despite high moisture.

Primary Threat

Localized heavy rain and gusty winds.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Crescent

37% Illumination
Moonrise
2:34 AM
Moonset
3:27 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:35 AM
Sunset
9:14 PM
Civil Dawn
6:04 AM
Civil Dusk
9:45 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:27 AM
Sunset
9:10 PM
Civil Dawn
5:56 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:31 AM
Sunset
9:09 PM
Civil Dawn
6:01 AM
Civil Dusk
9:39 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:27 AM
Sunset
9:05 PM
Civil Dawn
5:56 AM
Civil Dusk
9:36 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:20 AM
Sunset
9:06 PM
Civil Dawn
5:49 AM
Civil Dusk
9:37 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:22 AM
Sunset
9:05 PM
Civil Dawn
5:51 AM
Civil Dusk
9:36 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:19 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
5:48 AM
Civil Dusk
9:29 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:13 AM
Sunset
9:04 PM
Civil Dawn
5:41 AM
Civil Dusk
9:36 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:16 AM
Sunset
9:00 PM
Civil Dawn
5:45 AM
Civil Dusk
9:32 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:16 AM
Sunset
8:59 PM
Civil Dawn
5:45 AM
Civil Dusk
9:30 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:07 AM
Sunset
8:54 PM
Civil Dawn
5:36 AM
Civil Dusk
9:26 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:13 AM
Sunset
8:53 PM
Civil Dawn
5:42 AM
Civil Dusk
9:24 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.