Monday, June 8
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 8 at 2:01AM EDT until June 9 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison IN, Orange, Perry, Scott IN and Washington IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Adair, Allen, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Clinton, Cumberland, Edmonson, Grayson, Green, Hancock, Hardin, Hart, Jefferson, Larue, Logan, Marion, Meade, Metcalfe, Monroe, Nelson, Ohio, Oldham, Russell, Shelby, Simpson, Spencer, Taylor, Warren and Washington KY.
WHEN From this afternoon through Tuesday evening.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Ample moisture will move into our region ahead of a slow moving disturbance. This combined with an unstable airmass and slow storm movement will create the potential for locally heavy rainfall. 1 to 2.5 inches is expected to fall for most between now and late Tuesday, however localized amounts over 3+" will be possible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 8 at 1:23AM CDT until June 9 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, including the following areas, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jefferson, Johnson, Perry IL, Pope, Saline, Wabash, Wayne IL, White and Williamson, southwest Indiana, including the following areas, Gibson, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh and Warrick, and western Kentucky, including the following areas, Caldwell, Calloway, Christian, Crittenden, Daviess, Henderson, Hopkins, Livingston, Lyon, Marshall, McLean, Muhlenberg, Todd, Trigg, Union KY and Webster.
WHEN From 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ this morning through Tuesday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Repetitive thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall with totals of 3 to 4 inches possible.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 8 at 6:59AM CDT until June 9 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, including the following areas, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jefferson, Johnson, Perry IL, Pope, Saline, Wabash, Wayne IL, White and Williamson, southwest Indiana, including the following areas, Gibson, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh and Warrick, and western Kentucky, including the following areas, Caldwell, Calloway, Christian, Crittenden, Daviess, Henderson, Hopkins, Livingston, Lyon, Marshall, McLean, Muhlenberg, Todd, Trigg, Union KY and Webster.
WHEN Through Tuesday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Repetitive thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall with totals of 3 to 4 inches possible.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Heat Advisory
Heat Advisory issued June 8 at 1:52PM CDT until June 9 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Heat index values up to 105 expected.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN From 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday.
IMPACTS Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 8 at 3:23PM EDT until June 9 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison IN, Orange, Perry, Scott IN and Washington IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Adair, Allen, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Clinton, Cumberland, Edmonson, Grayson, Green, Hancock, Hardin, Hart, Jefferson, Larue, Logan, Marion, Meade, Metcalfe, Monroe, Nelson, Ohio, Oldham, Russell, Shelby, Simpson, Spencer, Taylor, Warren and Washington KY.
WHEN Through Tuesday evening.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Ample moisture will move into our region ahead of a slow moving disturbance. This combined with an unstable airmass and slow storm movement will create the potential for locally heavy rainfall. 1 to 2.5 inches is expected to fall for most between now and late Tuesday, however localized amounts over 3-6 inches will be possible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 8 at 2:31PM CDT until June 9 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, including the following areas, Alexander, Jackson, Massac, Pulaski and Union, western Kentucky, including the following areas, Ballard, Carlisle, Graves, Hickman and McCracken, and southeast Missouri, including the following area, Perry MO.
WHEN Through Tuesday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Repetitive thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued June 8 at 2:31PM CDT until June 9 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, including the following areas, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jefferson, Johnson, Perry IL, Pope, Saline, Wabash, Wayne IL, White and Williamson, southwest Indiana, including the following areas, Gibson, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh and Warrick, and western Kentucky, including the following areas, Caldwell, Calloway, Christian, Crittenden, Daviess, Henderson, Hopkins, Livingston, Lyon, Marshall, McLean, Muhlenberg, Todd, Trigg, Union KY and Webster.
WHEN Through Tuesday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Repetitive thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 8 at 5:43PM CDT until June 8 at 6:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SVRPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Pulaski County in southern Illinois... Central Alexander County in southern Illinois... Northwestern Ballard County in western Kentucky... Northern Mississippi County in southeastern Missouri... * Until 615 PM CDT. * At 543 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Horseshoe Lake Conservation Area, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Cairo, Mounds, Tamms, Mound City, Olive Branch, Horseshoe Lake Conservation Area, Ullin, Olmsted, New Grand Chain, and Pulaski.
Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 8 at 6:06PM CDT until June 8 at 6:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SVRPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Carlisle County in western Kentucky... Northeastern Hickman County in western Kentucky... South central Ballard County in western Kentucky... East central Mississippi County in southeastern Missouri... * Until 645 PM CDT. * At 606 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wickliffe, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Bardwell, Arlington, Columbus, and Blandville.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 8 at 6:09PM CDT until June 8 at 6:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SVRPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Ballard County in western Kentucky... Southwestern McCracken County in western Kentucky... * Until 645 PM CDT. * At 608 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Cairo, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... La Center, Wickliffe, Barlow, Mound City, Lovelaceville, and Kevil.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Western Deluge Meets Eastern Heat; Rain Sweeps Eastward
A tale of two states will unfold across Kentucky this Monday. Western and Southern regions face significant rainfall and localized flooding risks from persistent training storms, while Eastern and Northern Kentucky begin the day hot and dry before light showers arrive late.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the overall pattern of rain moving west to east, but moderate uncertainty regarding the exact eastern edge of the heavy rain bullseye and timing of saturation in the Bluegrass.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a very soggy day with persistent, heavy rainfall starting early and lasting through much of the evening. Accumulations around 1.8 inches are expected, which may cause localized ponding on roads.
Northwest Pennyrile
Rain will be most consistent during the morning and midday hours. Expect total accumulations near 0.8 inches with gusty winds reaching 25-30 mph by late afternoon.
Southwest Pennyrile
Prepare for heavy rain during the morning commute. While rain will continue off and on, the most significant totals, around 1.5 inches, will occur before noon.
Barren River
Cloudy skies will eventually give way to rain showers by the afternoon. Expect around 0.5 inches of rain with breezy conditions for the evening drive.
Louisville Metro
Expect a grey and humid Monday in the city. Light to moderate rain will move through during the afternoon, resulting in accumulations around 0.3 inches.
Lincoln Trail
A grey day is in store with occasional rain showers, especially in the afternoon. Total accumulations around 0.4 inches are expected.
Lake Cumberland
Sunshine will fade quickly as rain moves in after lunch. Expect around half an inch of rain by tonight.
Northern Kentucky
The day will start dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Rain will finally break through in the late afternoon, with around 0.3 inches expected.
Inner Bluegrass
Rain will be hit-or-miss for the first half of the day, becoming more consistent by late afternoon. Accumulations around 0.3 inches.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect cloudy and damp conditions today. Most of the rain will fall in the late afternoon and evening, totaling around 0.3 inches.
Northeast Kentucky
It will be a hot and mostly sunny day with highs near 90 degrees. Any rain will likely hold off until late tonight and will be very light.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will stay mostly dry and warm for the majority of the day. A few light showers are possible near sunset with minimal accumulation.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the NAM's convective training scenario verifies, the Purchase and Southwest Pennyrile regions could see rainfall totals exceeding 4 inches, leading to flash flooding. Meanwhile, the moisture plume pushes faster than expected, bringing a soaking rain to the Bluegrass by early afternoon.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario involves the shortwave shearing out more quickly, leading to a progressive line of light showers (0.25-0.50") rather than training. In this case, dry air in Eastern KY wins, and the Coalfields remain entirely dry through the night.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Western Rainfall War
The NAM is aggressive with a stalled boundary and training cells, projecting over 2.5 inches of rain. The GFS and Euro are more progressive, showing a faster-moving system with totals closer to 1.0 inch.
Why NAM Wins
Mesoscale models like the NAM typically handle high-PWAT environments and training boundaries with higher accuracy within 24 hours. The thermodynamic profiles support high-efficiency rain production.
The Eastern Dry-Air Stand
Models disagree on when rain will break through the low-level dry air in Northeast KY. The Euro brings rain in by mid-afternoon, while the NAM/GFS keep it dry until after sunset.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS is often superior at resolving the erosion of low-level dry air (Virga) in the deep valleys and hills of Eastern Kentucky. A later onset is more meteorologically sound given current dewpoint depressions.
Celestial Almanac
Last Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.