Sunday, June 7
Warm Sunday with Scattered Afternoon Showers
A warm and humid Sunday is expected across Kentucky, with temperatures reaching the mid-80s. A weak mid-level disturbance will trigger scattered light to moderate rain showers, primarily affecting Western and Northern Kentucky during the afternoon and evening hours.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the temperature profile and the presence of a shortwave; moderate confidence in the exact spatial distribution of light rain totals due to varying moisture depths among global models.
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Purchase Area
A predominantly gray day with periods of light to moderate rain showers throughout the afternoon and evening. Rain totals will likely reach around 0.3 inches for most locations.
Northwest Pennyrile
Clouds will dominate the sky, keeping temperatures in the mid-80s. A few stray sprinkles are possible late in the day.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect thickening clouds by midday with rain showers developing during the afternoon. Accumulations will be around a quarter of an inch.
Barren River
Gray skies will prevail with a few light showers or drizzle possible during the late afternoon. Totals will be very light.
Louisville Metro
A warm, humid day for the metro with plenty of cloud cover. While a few light showers may pass through, major rain is not expected.
Lincoln Trail
Most of the day will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds. A stray shower cannot be ruled out late in the evening.
Lake Cumberland
A warm day with highs in the mid-80s. Clouds will increase throughout the afternoon, but most rain should stay to the west.
Northern Kentucky
A warm afternoon will lead into a rainy evening. Steady rain is expected to arrive after 6:00 PM, with accumulations around 0.4 inches.
Inner Bluegrass
Showers will likely develop during the mid-afternoon hours. Expect around a tenth of an inch of rain before the system exits this evening.
Bluegrass Foothills
Clouds will persist throughout the day, but rain chances are low. A few light sprinkles are possible late this evening.
Northeast Kentucky
A dry morning will give way to a cloudier afternoon. Some light rain or sprinkles are possible this evening, but most areas will stay dry.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will remain dry today with a mix of sun and high clouds. Temperatures will be very pleasant in the low-to-mid 80s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If moisture pooling maximizes and the shortwave slows, widespread rainfall totals could reach 0.50-0.75 inches, particularly in Northern and Western Kentucky, with clouds keeping highs in the lower 80s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If mid-level dry air and dewpoint depressions of 10-15 degrees persist, much of the activity will result in 'Virga' (rain evaporating before hitting the ground), leaving the state mostly dry under a thick canopy of clouds.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Western Moisture Plume
The GFS is aggressive with a deep moisture return into the Purchase area, while the NAM and Euro keep the bulk of the measurable precipitation focused further north and east along the primary shortwave track.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides a middle-ground solution that accounts for the GFS moisture bias while recognizing the NAM's tendency for localized bullseyes. It captures the stratiform nature of the system best.
The Bluegrass Shortwave Timing
Models disagree on how quickly the shortwave energy exits the state, with the NAM suggesting a later evening arrival for Northern KY compared to the Euro's earlier afternoon timing.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically handles the resolution of mesoscale shortwave features and associated surface troughs better within a 24-hour window.
Celestial Almanac
Last Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.