Sunday, June 7
Widespread Rain and Humid Conditions Arrive Sunday
A moisture-laden system will track across Kentucky on Sunday, bringing widespread stratiform rain to the entire state. Rainfall will be heaviest in the west, with amounts gradually tapering off toward the east. While it will be a soggy day, the lack of instability will prevent severe weather, leaving most regions with a steady, soaking rain and overcast skies.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high for a widespread rain event and warm temperatures; however, timing differences between the GFS and Euro regarding when rain reaches the Eastern Kentucky coalfields reduce overall certainty.
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Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Rain will be most persistent here, starting in the morning and continuing through the evening. Expect rainfall totals around 0.75 inches.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a grey day with rain moving in during the afternoon hours. Totals will be around 0.35 inches.
Southwest Pennyrile
A soggy Sunday with periodic rain showers and highs in the upper 70s. Expect around 0.3 inches of rain.
Barren River
Cloudy skies and high humidity will be the main story, with light rain showers and totals around 0.15 inches.
Louisville Metro
Morning clouds will give way to light rain showers by the afternoon. Totals will be around 0.15 inches.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a damp Sunday with light rain and overcast conditions. Rainfall around 0.2 inches.
Lake Cumberland
Most of the day will be dry and warm before light rain moves in during the evening hours. Amounts will be under 0.1 inches.
Northern Kentucky
Rain will likely hold off until the afternoon, with around 0.2 inches expected by nightfall.
Inner Bluegrass
A dry start followed by rain in the late afternoon and evening. Totals around 0.2 inches.
Bluegrass Foothills
Cloudy and humid with periods of light rain in the afternoon. Totals near 0.2 inches.
Northeast Kentucky
Temperatures will reach the mid-80s before rain arrives in the evening. Rainfall around 0.1 inches.
Southeast Kentucky
Warm and pleasant for most of the day, with light rain arriving late in the evening. Totals under 0.1 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the shortwave trough slows and deepens, moisture transport from the Gulf could maximize, leading to widespread totals over 1.0 inch for the western half of the state and 0.5 inches in the east.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the low-level dry air in Eastern Kentucky proves more resilient, the rain shield may dissipate or remain as virga, resulting in only trace amounts for regions east of I-75.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Timing Tug-of-War
Models disagree on the onset of precipitation. The GFS suggests a distinct West-to-East progression with the East remaining dry until late afternoon, while the Euro brings moisture in much earlier, covering most of the state by sunrise.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro tends to handle the broad-scale lift from subtropical jet streaks more accurately than the GFS, which often over-relies on discrete shortwave timing.
Western QPF Intensity
The GFS is significantly more aggressive with rainfall totals in the Purchase region, forecasting nearly an inch, whereas the Euro keeps totals closer to a half-inch.
Why EURO Wins
The GFS has a documented high-bias for stratiform precipitation totals in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range, often 'smearing' higher totals across larger areas.
Celestial Almanac
Last Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.