Saturday, June 6
Warm Summer Weekend with Isolated Evening Sprinkles
A warm and generally dry Saturday is expected across Kentucky, with temperatures climbing into the mid-80s. While most of the state will enjoy plenty of sunshine, a weak passing disturbance will bring increased cloud cover and a slight risk for light, non-accumulating sprinkles to western and northern regions late in the day.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in temperatures and dry conditions for 90% of the state. Lower confidence regarding whether the light evening sprinkles in the far west/north will actually reach the ground.
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Purchase Area
Expect a warm and mostly sunny morning, but clouds will increase throughout the afternoon. A few light sprinkles are possible after 6:00 PM, but no measurable accumulation is expected.
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunlight will be plentiful early, followed by a mix of sun and clouds later in the day. Temperatures will reach the mid-80s with a steady breeze.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very pleasant summer day is in store with highs in the mid-80s. The evening will stay dry and comfortable for any outdoor plans.
Barren River
Abundant sunshine will be the rule today, with temperatures peaking around 83 degrees. Light winds and low humidity will make for a great outdoor Saturday.
Louisville Metro
Temperatures will approach 87 degrees under clear skies. Expect a bit of a breeze during the afternoon, with gusts near 23 mph.
Lincoln Trail
A classic summer day for Elizabethtown and Bardstown with highs in the low 80s. Skies will remain clear through the evening hours.
Lake Cumberland
Enjoy sunshine and warm temperatures on the water today. A cool morning in the 60s will quickly warm into the low 80s.
Northern Kentucky
A sunny day will turn cloudier this evening. A few light sprinkles or sprinkles are possible late, but most areas will stay dry.
Inner Bluegrass
Sunshine will prevail all day across the Bluegrass. Winds will be a bit gusty this afternoon, reaching up to 26 mph.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a beautiful day with highs in the low 80s. Skies will remain clear with only a few passing clouds.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland and surrounding areas will see the warmest temps today, nearing 88 degrees. Full sunshine and light winds will make for a hot afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
A crisp start in the 50s will lead to a warm and sunny afternoon. Conditions will stay completely dry through the overnight hours.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If low-level moisture advection is stronger than currently modeled (as hinted by the Euro), a few hundredths of an inch of rain could dampen pavements in the Purchase and Northern Kentucky regions by mid-afternoon.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry air identified by the NAM wins out, the state remains completely sunny and bone-dry, with evening showers evaporating entirely before reaching the ground.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Mixing vs. Stagnation
The NAM and GFS suggest gusty afternoon winds due to momentum transfer from an 850mb jet, while the Euro keeps surface winds very light.
Why NAM Wins
The June sun angle and adiabatic lapse rates will favor deep boundary layer mixing, making the gustier NAM/GFS solution more plausible than the stagnant Euro.
The Virga Verdict
The GFS and Euro show high probabilities (80%) of precipitation in the West/North, while the NAM remains completely dry. The conflict centers on a deep layer of dry air in the sub-cloud layer.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM thermal profiles show massive dew point depressions (15-20F) at the surface. Even with the shortwave energy provided by the GFS, the evaporation potential is too high for measurable rainfall to verify.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.