Friday, June 5
Early Summer Warmth with Increasing Evening Clouds
A stable and warm early June airmass will dominate Kentucky, with temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 80s statewide. While most of the Commonwealth remains dry under a building ridge, a weak mid-level disturbance will bring increased cloud cover and a slight chance for light rain to the far western Purchase region by evening.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for the temperature forecast and the dry conditions for 90% of the state. Confidence is lower regarding the exact northern and eastern extent of light rain showers in the Purchase region during the evening hours.
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Purchase Area
A warm and pleasant afternoon will give way to increasing clouds. A few light rain showers are possible during the evening, though accumulations will be negligible.
Northwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will reach the mid-80s today. While clouds will increase during the afternoon, dry conditions are expected to prevail.
Southwest Pennyrile
Enjoy a sunny morning followed by a partly cloudy afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-80s with a steady south breeze.
Barren River
A very consistent early summer day with plenty of sunshine and highs near 82. Humidity will remain moderate.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see highs in the mid-80s. Some afternoon clouds will drift through, but it will be an excellent day for outdoor plans.
Lincoln Trail
Sunny skies will dominate with temperatures topping out in the low 80s. A light breeze from the south is expected.
Lake Cumberland
Calm winds and warm temperatures near 82 will make for a great day on the water. Clouds will increase overnight.
Northern Kentucky
A bright day with temperatures reaching the low 80s. Winds may gust over 20 mph at times during the afternoon.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will enjoy a warm and dry Friday with highs in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect temperatures near 82 with light winds and plenty of sunshine. Humidity remains low for June standards.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland and the Northeast will see the warmest temperatures in the state today, reaching the mid-80s under full sun.
Southeast Kentucky
A gorgeous day for the mountains with highs in the low 80s. Dry air will make it feel very comfortable.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the shortwave trough arrives with more moisture than anticipated, light rain showers could spread across the entire Western half of Kentucky (Purchase and Pennyrile) by sunset, with totals reaching 0.05 inches.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry layer at 850mb remains as robust as the GFS suggests, the shortwave will pass as a mere 'cloud-maker,' resulting in zero measurable precipitation and a continuation of the statewide dry spell.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Boundary Layer Heat Spread
The GFS is a significant cool outlier, suggesting highs only in the mid-70s for Western KY, while the NAM and Euro suggest mid-80s.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro and NAM are in better agreement regarding the strength of the ridge and the degree of low-level warm air advection. The GFS appears to be overestimating the impact of cloud cover on afternoon high temperatures.
The Purchase Precip Paradox
The NAM is aggressively pushing a localized light rain signal into the far Western tip of the state after 21z, while the GFS and Euro maintain a bone-dry column.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM's higher resolution typically captures subtle mesoscale shortwaves and the associated isentropic lift better than global models in the 12-24 hour window. We will forecast low-end PoPs for the far West.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.