Thursday, June 4
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued June 3 at 3:20PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Thursday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued June 3 at 3:37PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Thursday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Dominant High Pressure with a Damp Western Exception
A robust high-pressure system centered over the Ohio Valley will provide tranquil and warm weather for the majority of Kentucky. However, a weak upper-level disturbance will bring increased cloud cover and a slight risk of morning drizzle to the far western Purchase and Barren River areas before high pressure suppresses the moisture later in the day.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high for a dry day across 80% of the state. The primary uncertainty lies in the intensity of the cloud cover and trace drizzle risk in the far western counties due to the weak vorticity max.
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Purchase Area
Expect a gray morning across the Purchase area as a weak disturbance moves through. A few light showers or drizzle are possible before noon, but no significant accumulation is expected. Skies will begin to clear by late afternoon with highs reaching the low 80s.
Northwest Pennyrile
Morning clouds will give way to a pleasant afternoon across Owensboro and Henderson. Temperatures will be seasonal, reaching the low 80s with light winds.
Southwest Pennyrile
A beautiful day with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. Highs will reach the low 80s with light southerly winds.
Barren River
A cloudy start for Bowling Green with a slight chance of light drizzle before 10 AM. Skies will clear by midday, leading to a warm and sunny afternoon.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see a bright and warm day as temperatures climb into the mid-80s. The urban heat island will make it the warmest spot in the state.
Lincoln Trail
A quiet early summer day with plenty of sunshine and highs in the low 80s. Humidity levels will remain very comfortable.
Lake Cumberland
Great weather for outdoor activities with light winds and sunny skies. Afternoon temperatures will be pleasant in the low 80s.
Northern Kentucky
A very calm day with blue skies and seasonal temperatures in the low 80s. Winds will be light from the north-northeast.
Inner Bluegrass
Perfect weather for the Lexington area with clear skies and warm temperatures. Highs will stay in the low 80s with very low humidity.
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunny skies will prevail throughout the day with temperatures reaching the low 80s. Expect a cool morning followed by rapid warming.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect a significant temperature swing today. After a cool morning in the low 50s, afternoon highs will climb into the low 80s. Skies will remain perfectly clear.
Southeast Kentucky
After some early morning valley fog, the region will see beautiful sunshine. Temperatures will be very comfortable, peaking in the low 80s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' Scenario: If the western shortwave overperforms its moisture profile, the Purchase and Pennyrile regions could see a more persistent overcast day with widespread measurable drizzle, keeping afternoon highs in the mid-70s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' Scenario: If the dry air and subsidence from the high-pressure center are even more aggressive, the western disturbance will fail to produce any clouds, resulting in a state-wide 'bluebird' day with temperatures reaching the mid-80s everywhere.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Eastern Valley Radiational Cooling
Disagreement exists regarding overnight lows in the Eastern valleys. The GFS and NAM suggest deep cooling into the low 50s, while the Euro remains more tempered in the low 60s.
Why GFS Wins
Under clear skies, dry air, and light winds, the GFS typically handles radiational cooling in the complex terrain of the coalfields more accurately than the coarser Euro.
The West KY Drizzle Dilemma
The NAM is aggressively forecasting an 80% chance of drizzle/light rain in the Purchase and Barren River regions due to a passing shortwave, while the GFS and Euro maintain a dry, high-pressure solution.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro and GFS synoptic scales better account for the overwhelming dry air and subsidence associated with the 1020mb high. The NAM's high PoP with 0.00" QPF suggests it is over-resolving shallow moisture that will likely evaporate before reaching the surface.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.