Monday, June 1
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 31 at 10:38AM CDT until June 3 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .The Ohio River at Shawneetown is forecast to crest today about a foot above flood stage, then fall below flood stage Wednesday.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until early Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 9:30 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 33.9 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 34.0 feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage Wednesday morning. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 1 at 5:49AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 549 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles north of Calvert City to near Reidland. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Paducah, Benton, Calvert City, Eddyville, Hillman Ferry Campground, Reidland, Birmingham Ferry Recreation Area, Demumbers Bay Campground, Land Between The Lakes Area, Ledbetter, Kuttawa, Grand Rivers, Smithland, Hamletsburg, and Symsonia. This includes the following highways... Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 9 and 46. Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 41 and 71.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued June 1 at 6:13AM CDT until June 1 at 9:15AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of western Kentucky, including the following county, McCracken.
WHEN Until 915 AM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 613 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Paducah and Reidland. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued June 1 at 6:31AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 631 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Reidland to near Land Between The Lakes Area. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Murray, Benton, Calvert City, Golden Pond Visitors Center, Hillman Ferry Campground, Wranglers Campground, Energy Lake Campground, Woodlands Nature Station, Birmingham Ferry Recreation Area, Turkey Bay, Demumbers Bay Campground, Land Between The Lakes Area, Cravens Bay Campground, Canton, Rockcastle, Hardin, Linton, Kirksey, Brewers, and Aurora. This includes the following highways... Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 18 and 27. Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 36 and 51.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. If on or near Kentucky or Barkley Lake, get out of the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 1 at 6:58AM CDT until June 1 at 7:45AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SVRPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Livingston County in western Kentucky... Northern Marshall County in western Kentucky... Lyon County in western Kentucky... * Until 745 AM CDT. * At 658 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Calvert City, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Calvert City, Eddyville, Woodlands Nature Station, Birmingham Ferry Recreation Area, Demumbers Bay Campground, Hillman Ferry Campground, Cravens Bay Campground, Land Between The Lakes Area, Kuttawa, and Grand Rivers. This includes the following highways... Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 22 and 54. Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 45 and 73.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 1 at 7:13AM CDT until June 1 at 7:45AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 713 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Demumbers Bay Campground, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Calvert City, Eddyville, Woodlands Nature Station, Birmingham Ferry Recreation Area, Demumbers Bay Campground, Hillman Ferry Campground, Cravens Bay Campground, Land Between The Lakes Area, Kuttawa, and Grand Rivers. This includes the following highways... Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 26 and 54. Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 45 and 48, and between Mile Markers 68 and 72.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued June 1 at 7:48AM CDT until June 1 at 11:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of western Kentucky, including the following counties, Calloway, Livingston, Lyon, Marshall and Trigg.
WHEN Until 1100 AM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 748 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause small stream flooding. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Calvert City, Birmingham Ferry Recreation Area, Hillman Ferry Campground, Land Between The Lakes Area, Demumbers Bay Campground, Golden Pond Visitors Center, Turkey Bay, Wranglers Campground, Grand Rivers and Aurora.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued June 1 at 8:04AM CDT until June 1 at 2:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
FFWPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southeastern Pope County in southern Illinois... Northeastern Calloway County in western Kentucky... Southern Livingston County in western Kentucky... Southwestern Lyon County in western Kentucky... Central Marshall County in western Kentucky... Southwestern Trigg County in western Kentucky... * Until 215 PM CDT Monday. * At 804 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Calvert City, Hillman Ferry Campground, Birmingham Ferry Recreation Area, Demumbers Bay Campground, Land Between The Lakes Area, Golden Pond Visitors Center, Turkey Bay, Wranglers Campground, Grand Rivers, Smithland, Aurora and Hamletsburg.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued June 1 at 9:41AM CDT until June 1 at 12:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of western Kentucky, including the following county, Calloway.
WHEN Until 1245 PM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 941 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Murray. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued June 1 at 9:44AM CDT until June 1 at 2:15PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 944 AM CDT, Radar indicated broad areas of 2 to 3 inches of rain from near Smithland south to Land Between the Lakes and eastern Marshall County. Rain gauges report up to 4 inches of rain has fallen near Aurora and Kenlake State Park and adjacent areas of LBL. The heaviest rainfall is ending but runoff will pose a threat for flash flooding for several hours.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Calvert City, Hillman Ferry Campground, Birmingham Ferry Recreation Area, Demumbers Bay Campground, Land Between The Lakes Area, Golden Pond Visitors Center, Turkey Bay, Wranglers Campground, Grand Rivers, Smithland, Aurora and Hamletsburg.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued June 1 at 12:00PM CDT until June 2 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown affecting Crittenden, Union, Hardin and Gallatin Counties. .River levels have crested and are beginning to fall along the Ohio River. Shawneetown is forecast to fall below flood stage by later Tuesday morning.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until early tomorrow afternoon.
IMPACTS At 33.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs affecting mainly bottomland and surrounding low lying areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:30 AM CDT Monday the stage was 33.8 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage tomorrow morning and continue falling to 16.9 feet Thursday, June 11. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
A Mild Start to June with Scattered Showers West
A weak mid-level disturbance will drift across the Tennessee Valley today, bringing cloud cover and scattered light rain to Western and Southern Kentucky. Most of Central and Eastern Kentucky will remain dry and pleasant under the influence of high pressure centered to the north. Breezy conditions are expected to develop across the central corridor this evening.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the temperature gradient and the dry forecast for Eastern KY. Lower confidence on the exact northern extent and intensity of the rain shield in Western KY.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a mostly cloudy and damp start to June. Rain showers will move through the area during the morning and afternoon hours, with around 0.45 inches of accumulation expected. Temperatures will reach the low 80s, and it will become breezy by this evening.
Northwest Pennyrile
A few light rain showers are possible today, mainly during the afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be light, totaling about a tenth of an inch.
Southwest Pennyrile
Clouds will dominate the day with rounds of rain likely during the afternoon and early evening. Accumulations around 0.35 inches are expected.
Barren River
It will be a gray day for Bowling Green. A few light showers are likely in the afternoon, but many areas will see very little measurable rain.
Louisville Metro
Highs will reach the low 80s today. While a stray sprinkle is possible late, the main story will be the breezy evening with gusts up to 25 mph.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a mostly cloudy day with highs near 80. Winds will pick up this evening with some gusts reaching 24 mph.
Lake Cumberland
Highs will stay in the upper 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Rain should stay to our west today.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a mix of sun and clouds with very comfortable temperatures in the low to mid-70s. A stray morning sprinkle is possible.
Inner Bluegrass
A great day for outdoor plans with highs in the upper 70s. It will become a bit breezy this evening with gusts up to 25 mph.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect plenty of sunshine today with highs in the mid-70s. Perfect weather for hiking or any outdoor activities.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland and surrounding areas will see a beautiful day with plenty of sunshine and highs in the low 70s.
Southeast Kentucky
A pleasant and dry day for the mountains. Expect sunny skies with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the shortwave energy tracks slightly further north and moisture deepens, rain totals in the Purchase could approach 1.0 inch, with light measurable rain spreading as far east as the Bluegrass Core.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Should dry air in the mid-levels prove more resilient, the rain will manifest largely as virga or light sprinkles, leaving even the westernmost counties with less than a tenth of an inch of accumulation.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Evening Gust Gambit
The NAM and GFS suggest a period of 25-30 mph gusts in Central KY this evening due to a tightening pressure gradient, while the Euro remains much calmer.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically resolves boundary layer mixing and low-level jet momentum transfer better than the global models in the 0-24 hour window.
The Purchase Precipitation Divide
Models are in significant disagreement regarding the rainfall intensity in the far west. The GFS is aggressive with nearly an inch of rain, while the NAM remains almost entirely dry, suggesting the moisture remains south of the border.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides a realistic middle ground, accounting for the modest lift of the shortwave without the GFS's tendency to over-saturate the column or the NAM's dry bias in weak synoptic setups.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.