Tuesday, June 2
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued June 1 at 12:00PM CDT until June 2 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown affecting Crittenden, Union, Hardin and Gallatin Counties. .River levels have crested and are beginning to fall along the Ohio River. Shawneetown is forecast to fall below flood stage by later Tuesday morning.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until early tomorrow afternoon.
IMPACTS At 33.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs affecting mainly bottomland and surrounding low lying areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:30 AM CDT Monday the stage was 33.8 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage tomorrow morning and continue falling to 16.9 feet Thursday, June 11. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued June 2 at 11:40AM CDT until June 2 at 6:07PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown affecting Crittenden, Hardin, Union and Gallatin Counties. .River levels have crested and are continuing to fall along the Ohio River. Shawneetown is forecast to fall below flood stage later today.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until this evening.
IMPACTS At 33.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs affecting mainly bottomland and surrounding low lying areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:30 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 33.1 feet. - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 11:30 AM CDT Tuesday was 33.9 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this afternoon and continue falling to 15.3 feet Friday, June 12. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Abundant Sunshine with a Few Northeast Sprinkles
A tranquil and seasonably warm June day will prevail across most of Kentucky under high pressure. While a weak atmospheric disturbance will bring a chance for light morning or evening sprinkles to the northeast, the vast majority of the state will remain dry with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall warm and dry pattern. Point deductions are taken for the timing and placement discrepancy of the weak shortwave in the northeast.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a bright and beautiful day with plenty of sunshine from start to finish. Temperatures will be among the warmest in the state, reaching the low 80s by the afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Mostly sunny skies will prevail with very comfortable early June temperatures. A light breeze will develop in the afternoon, keeping the air feeling fresh.
Southwest Pennyrile
Enjoy wall-to-wall sunshine and pleasant afternoon highs near 80 degrees. Conditions are ideal for any outdoor activities through the evening.
Barren River
A very consistent day of weather with sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s. Evening temperatures will drop into the 60s, making for a pleasant night.
Louisville Metro
Expect a beautiful day in the city with clear blue skies and a steady afternoon breeze. Wind gusts could occasionally reach 25 mph during the hottest part of the day.
Lincoln Trail
The day will start cool but quickly warm up into the mid-to-upper 70s under sunny skies. Humidity remains very low, keeping the air comfortable.
Lake Cumberland
Abundant sunshine and highs in the upper 70s will make for perfect conditions on the water. Winds will stay light enough to keep the water relatively calm.
Northern Kentucky
A very pleasant day with temperatures peaking in the mid-70s and plenty of sun. A breezy afternoon is expected with gusts up to 25 mph.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a bright day with highs in the mid-70s. The air will feel quite fresh due to a steady breeze. Skies remain clear through the evening hours.
Bluegrass Foothills
A cool start followed by a very pleasant afternoon with clear skies and highs in the mid-70s. The evening will be calm and comfortable for outdoor dining.
Northeast Kentucky
While most of the day will be sunny and pleasant, a few light showers or sprinkles are possible, mainly in the morning and again late evening. Any rain will be very light and will not significantly impact outdoor plans.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a crisp morning in the valleys followed by a sunny, mild afternoon with temperatures in the mid-70s. Skies will remain mostly clear with just a few passing clouds.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If low-level moisture recovery is slightly more aggressive than modeled, the shortwave in the northeast could produce a few localized areas of 0.05" rainfall, and the Purchase region could see morning cloud cover linger longer.
The 'Bust' Scenario
A 'Bust' scenario involves the mid-level dry air winning out completely, resulting in nothing more than scattered high clouds in the northeast and wall-to-wall sunshine elsewhere with slightly higher afternoon temperatures.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Shortwave Shunt
The GFS is an outlier, depicting a weak moisture plume clipping the far Western Purchase in the morning. The NAM and Euro both focus the energy in the Northeast, though they disagree on timing (NAM is late evening, Euro is morning).
Why EURO Wins
The Euro and NAM show better synoptic agreement on the placement of the shortwave energy in the Northeast. The GFS solution in the west appears to be a 'phantom' moisture smear typical of its lower resolution in weak-forcing regimes.
The Mixing Margin
Disagreement exists regarding peak wind gusts and afternoon humidity. The GFS is more aggressive with mixing down higher momentum air from 5kft, leading to gusts near 30 mph.
Why BLEND Wins
While NAM is often better at boundary layer resolution, the pressure gradient between the departing low to the north and the ridge to the south supports at least moderate breeziness.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.