Sunday, May 31
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 30 at 11:09AM CDT until June 2 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .The Ohio River at Shawneetown is forecast to crest today just under a foot above flood stage, then fall below flood stage early Tuesday.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until Tuesday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:30 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 33.7 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 33.7 feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Tuesday morning. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 31 at 10:38AM CDT until June 3 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .The Ohio River at Shawneetown is forecast to crest today about a foot above flood stage, then fall below flood stage Wednesday.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until early Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 9:30 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 33.9 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 34.0 feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage Wednesday morning. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 31 at 4:24PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 424 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Mount Pisgah to near Great Meadows Campsites to 6 miles southwest of Co- Operative to near Blue Heron. These storms were nearly stationary.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Blue Heron, Parmleysville, Great Meadows Campsites, Pine Knot, Burfield, Griffin, Mount Pisgah, Strunk, Co- Operative, Stearns, and Winfield.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 31 at 4:54PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 453 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Siler, or 12 miles east of Williamsburg, moving east at 5 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Dixie, Siler, Gatliff, Frakes, Davisburg, Packard, Ingram, Lucky, Pearl, Goins, Polly Camp, Wheeler, Chenoa, Nevisdale, Carpenter, and Verne.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 31 at 5:14PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 514 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong thunderstorms over Sunnybrook, or 11 miles northeast of Byrdstown, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Parmleysville, Great Meadows Campsites, Griffin, Mount Pisgah, Slickford, and Sunnybrook.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 31 at 4:25PM CDT until May 31 at 5:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 425 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Tamms, or 14 miles east of Scott City, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD 70 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Locations impacted include... Cairo, La Center, Wickliffe, Mounds, Barlow, Tamms, Mound City, Olive Branch, Horseshoe Lake Conservation Area, Ullin, Kevil, Olmsted, New Grand Chain, Pulaski, and Commerce. This includes the following highways... Interstate 57 in Illinois between Mile Markers 1 and 22. Interstate 57 in Missouri between Mile Markers 19 and 21. Interstate 55 near Mile Marker 81.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 31 at 5:29PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 529 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong thunderstorms near Slickford, or 13 miles south of Monticello, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Parmleysville, Rockeybranch, Slickford, Burfield, Mount Pisgah, Powersburg, and Sunnybrook.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued May 31 at 4:30PM CDT until May 31 at 6:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 256 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER PULASKI IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN MARSHALL MCCRACKEN THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BENTON, CAIRO, CLINTON, HICKMAN, MAYFIELD, MOUND CITY, MURRAY, PADUCAH, AND WICKLIFFE.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 31 at 5:32PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 532 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Red Ash, or 7 miles south of Williamsburg, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Lot, Ayers, Gatliff, Packard, Saxton, Polly Camp, Mountain Ash, Red Ash, Nevisdale, Jellico, and Indian Mountain State Park. THIS INCLUDES Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile markers 1 and 6.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 31 at 4:35PM CDT until May 31 at 5:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 434 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Mounds, or 9 miles north of Cairo, moving southeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Cairo, La Center, Wickliffe, Mounds, Barlow, Tamms, Mound City, Horseshoe Lake Conservation Area, Ullin, Kevil, Olmsted, New Grand Chain, and Pulaski. This includes the following highways... Interstate 57 in Illinois between Mile Markers 1 and 20. Interstate 57 in Missouri between Mile Markers 19 and 21.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 31 at 5:36PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 535 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Goldbug, or near Williamsburg, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Goldbug, Walden, Perkins, Rockholds, Louden, Wofford, and Clio. THIS INCLUDES Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile markers 14 and 20.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 31 at 5:39PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 539 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Emlyn, or near Williamsburg, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Williamsburg, Dixie, Julip, Verne, Pleasant View, Emlyn, Suttons Mill, Yaden, Louden, Lucky, and Nevisdale. THIS INCLUDES Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile markers 7 and 10.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 31 at 6:03PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 602 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong thunderstorms over Dixie, or near Williamsburg, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Julip, Gatliff, Emlyn, Birdseye, Red Ash, Verne, Pleasant View, Gausdale, Louden, Pruden, Polly Camp, Wheeler, Nevisdale, Dixie, Siler, Frakes, Packard, Fonde, Wilkerson, and Lucky. THIS INCLUDES Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile markers 1 and 8.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 31 at 6:19PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 619 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Permon, or 7 miles southwest of Barbourville, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Barbourville, Avis, Perkins, Artemus, Permon, Myrick, Swanpond, Himyar, Swan Lake, Hubbs, Clate, Birdseye, Gausdale, King, Kayjay, Brush Creek, Bryants Store, Wheeler, Trosper, and Warren.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued May 31 at 5:20PM CDT until May 31 at 6:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 256 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN MARSHALL MCCRACKEN IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BUTLER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID RIPLEY STODDARD THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BENTON, BLOOMFIELD, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DONIPHAN, HICKMAN, MAYFIELD, MURRAY, NEW MADRID, PADUCAH, POPLAR BLUFF, AND WICKLIFFE.
Split Pattern: Southern Showers and Northern Sunshine
The final day of May will feature a distinct weather split across the Commonwealth. A weak atmospheric disturbance moving through the Tennessee Valley will bring light rain showers and overcast skies to southern and western Kentucky. Meanwhile, northern and central sections of the state will remain dry with plenty of sunshine as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes maintains its influence. No significant accumulation or severe weather is expected.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for the dry forecast in Northern and Central Kentucky. Confidence is slightly lower regarding the exact northern cutoff of light rain in the southern tier, though model consensus is growing.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a damp day with intermittent light rain showers. Total rainfall will be around 0.05 inches, so it won't be a washout, but wet roads are likely.
Northwest Pennyrile
Most of the day will be dry but gray. Expect a few light rain showers to arrive after sunset, totaling about 0.02 inches.
Southwest Pennyrile
Rain showers will move in during the afternoon hours. Accumulations will be light, around 0.06 inches.
Barren River
Expect periods of steady light rain, especially in the afternoon. Total rainfall could reach around 0.12 inches.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will likely stay dry today despite the clouds. Temperatures will reach a comfortable 80 degrees.
Lincoln Trail
It will be a cloudy day over the Muldraugh Escarpment, but rain is expected to stay to the south. Highs will be in the upper 70s.
Lake Cumberland
Expect rain showers to develop in the afternoon and continue into the evening. Rainfall will be light, totaling around 0.04 inches.
Northern Kentucky
Enjoy a bright and pleasant day with full sunshine. Temperatures will reach the mid-70s after a cool morning.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see plenty of sunshine today with temperatures in the upper 70s. Expect a light breeze in the afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
Clouds will increase throughout the day, but the air is too dry for any rain. Highs will top out around 80 degrees.
Northeast Kentucky
After a cool start in the low 50s, the sun will warm things up to 80 degrees. Skies will remain mostly sunny.
Southeast Kentucky
Most of the day will be dry and warm, but a stray shower is possible this evening. Rainfall totals will be negligible, around 0.01 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
A more aggressive moisture surge allows light rain to push further north toward the I-64 corridor, with totals in the southern border counties reaching up to 0.25 inches.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Dry air to the north successfully suppresses the moisture plume, limiting precipitation to nothing more than isolated sprinkles strictly along the Tennessee border.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Southern Moisture Boundary
There is a clear disagreement regarding how far north the light precipitation shield will travel. The ECMWF and GFS are more aggressive with moisture reaching the Western Kentucky Parkway, while the NAM keeps the state almost entirely dry.
Why EURO Wins
The global models show better synoptic continuity regarding the shortwave track and the depth of the associated moisture plume, whereas the NAM appears to be an outlier in its extreme dryness for this event.
The Valley Radiational Cooling Battle
Models are conflicting on overnight low temperatures in the eastern valleys. The GFS suggests aggressive cooling into the mid-40s, while the NAM and ECMWF keep temperatures in the mid-50s due to expected cloud debris.
Why GFS Wins
With high pressure situated to the north and a very dry air mass in place over Northeast Kentucky, radiational cooling should maximize in the valleys before the arrival of any mid-level cloud cover.
Celestial Almanac
Full Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.