Saturday, May 30
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 29 at 10:54AM CDT until May 31 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rainfall has caused the Ohio River to rise above flood stage at Shawneetown. For the Ohio River...including Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until Sunday evening.
IMPACTS At 33.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs affecting mainly bottomland and surrounding low lying areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:30 AM CDT Friday the stage was 33.3 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 33.5 feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage early Sunday afternoon. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 30 at 3:51AM CDT until May 30 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following county, Barren.
WHEN Until 700 AM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 351 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Glasgow, Bristletown, Pritchardsville, Roseville, Temple Hill, Haywood, Glasgow Municipal Airport, Eighty Eight, Kino and Oil City. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 30 at 4:16AM CDT until May 30 at 7:30AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, Clinton, Cumberland and Russell.
WHEN Until 730 AM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 416 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Aaron, Seventy Six, Desda, Manntown, Ida, Long Bottom, Willis Creek, Helm, Rowena and Decide. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 30 at 5:32AM EDT until May 30 at 8:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, McCreary and Wayne.
WHEN Until 845 AM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding possible in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 530 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding could begin shortly in the advisory area. Up to 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.3 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain may result in minor flooding. - Some locations that could experience flooding include... Monticello, Slickford, Burfield, Mount Pisgah, Cooper, Oil Valley, Parmleysville, Barrier, Hidalgo, Rockeybranch, Griffin, Coopersville, Powersburg, Susie, Sunnybrook, Great Meadows Campsites, Zula, Cabell and Co-Operative.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 30 at 5:35AM EDT until May 30 at 8:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, Laurel, Pulaski and Rockcastle.
WHEN Until 845 AM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding possible in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 534 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding could begin shortly in the advisory area. Up to 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain may result in minor flooding. - Some locations that could experience flooding include... Mount Vernon, Hansford, Bloss, Level Green, Sand Springs, Wabp, Pongo, Bromo, Valley Oak, Willailla, Spiro, Quail, Wellhope, Shopville, Maretburg, Luner, Bandy, Woodstock, Billows and Ottowa.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued May 30 at 4:38AM CDT until May 30 at 7:30AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
FFWLMK The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southwestern Butler County in south central Kentucky... * Until 730 AM CDT. * At 438 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1.5 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Morgantown, Rochester, Leetown, Dunbar, South Hill, Youngtown, Silver City, Dimple, Mining City and Pleasant Hill.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 30 at 4:46AM CDT until May 30 at 7:45AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, Clinton and Cumberland.
WHEN Until 745 AM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 446 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Up to 1 inch of rain has fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Albany, Burkesville, Hobart, Hegira, Shipley, Green Grove, Highway, Browns Crossroads, Frogue and Modoc. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 30 at 4:56AM CDT until May 30 at 8:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following county, Butler.
WHEN Until 800 AM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 456 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Morgantown, Woodbury, Aberdeen, Monford, Huldeville, Eden, Horsemill and Logansport. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 30 at 5:26AM CDT until May 30 at 8:30AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following county, Metcalfe.
WHEN Until 830 AM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 526 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Edmonton, Beechville, Clarks Corner, Cork, Gascon, Knob Lick, Node, Center, Echo and Savoyard. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 30 at 9:06AM EDT until May 30 at 12:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of south central and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in south central Kentucky, Whitley. In southeast Kentucky, Bell and Knox.
WHEN Until 1215 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 906 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Up to 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Kayjay, Wheeler, Hubbs, Ingram, Davisburg, Bryants Store, Birdseye, Gausdale, Clear Creek Springs and Warren.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 30 at 11:09AM CDT until June 2 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .The Ohio River at Shawneetown is forecast to crest today just under a foot above flood stage, then fall below flood stage early Tuesday.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until Tuesday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:30 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 33.7 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 33.7 feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Tuesday morning. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Southern Kentucky Rain Meets Northern Sun and Breezy Winds
A split weather pattern will define Saturday for the Commonwealth. Southern and Western Kentucky will see periods of steady rain as a weak disturbance moves through the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, Northern and Eastern Kentucky will remain dry with a mix of sun and clouds, though breezy winds will develop statewide by evening.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall synoptic setup and thermal profiles. The main uncertainty lies in the exact northern extent of the light precipitation and the peak magnitude of evening wind gusts.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a damp day with steady rain developing around midday and continuing through the evening. Accumulations will be around 0.3 inches. Temperatures will reach the lower 80s, feeling humid under persistent cloud cover.
Northwest Pennyrile
Light rain is possible early in the day, but conditions will largely dry out by the afternoon. Accumulations will stay near 0.1 inches. It will remain warm and mostly cloudy with highs in the lower 80s.
Southwest Pennyrile
Rain will be a frequent companion today, especially during the afternoon hours. Expect around 0.4 inches of total rainfall. Temperatures will be held in the upper 70s due to the rain and thick clouds.
Barren River
This region will see some of the highest rain totals in the state today, with around 0.45 inches expected by tonight. Rain will be steadiest in the morning and early afternoon before tapering off.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will remain dry today despite plenty of cloud cover. No measurable rain is expected. It will be a warm day with highs near 81, and breezy winds will gust up to 25 mph this evening.
Lincoln Trail
A few light showers are possible before noon, but the afternoon will be dry. Accumulations will be very minimal. Expect a high of 79 degrees with noticeable winds gusting to 25 mph late in the day.
Lake Cumberland
Rain is likely during the morning hours, tapering off to a few sprinkles by afternoon. Total rain will be around 0.15 inches. Highs will be in the upper 70s with high humidity.
Northern Kentucky
It will be a mostly cloudy day across Northern Kentucky, but no measurable rain is expected. Highs will be near 78. Winds will increase this evening, with gusts reaching up to 28 mph.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a dry day in Lexington with a mix of sun and clouds. Afternoon temperatures will reach 79 degrees. The evening will be quite windy, with gusts potentially hitting 30 mph at times.
Bluegrass Foothills
A quiet and dry day is on tap for Richmond and Danville. Highs will be in the upper 70s. Expect breezy conditions to develop after sunset with gusts up to 20 mph.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland will see a bright and dry day with warm afternoon highs reaching 80 degrees. Winds will be noticeable in the evening, gusting up to 28 mph.
Southeast Kentucky
A beautiful and dry day for outdoor plans. Temperatures will top out in the lower 80s after some morning valley fog. No rain is expected as the moisture plume stays well to the west.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the shortwave tracks further north and moisture maximizes, rain totals in the south could exceed 0.75 inches, and light rain could spread into the Louisville and Lexington metros.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the mid-level dry slot is more aggressive, rain will be limited to light sprinkles even in the south, and cloud cover will break early, allowing temperatures to soar into the upper 80s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The I-65 Moisture Divide
Models disagree on how far north and east the rain shield will progress. The NAM suggests rain as far north as Cincinnati, while the GFS and Euro maintain a sharp cutoff near the Western Kentucky Parkway.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro's handling of the 850mb ridge over the Carolinas and the associated dry slot between 850-700mb is more meteorologically sound, effectively suppressing precipitation in the northern river counties.
Evening Wind Magnitude
The GFS and NAM are significantly more aggressive with surface wind gusts than the Euro, predicting gusts near 30 mph as the boundary layer deepens and mixes.
Why GFS Wins
Given the tightening pressure gradient ahead of the approaching northern front, the GFS solution for efficient afternoon mixing and higher wind gusts is preferred over the calmer Euro.
Celestial Almanac
Full Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.