Friday, May 29
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 28 at 10:31AM CDT until June 1 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The National Weather Service in Paducah KY has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rainfall will cause the Ohio River to rise above flood stage at Shawneetown later today. For the Ohio River...including Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN From this evening to early Monday morning.
IMPACTS At 33.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs affecting mainly bottomland and surrounding low lying areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 9:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 32.6 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this evening to a crest of 33.7 feet tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday evening. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 29 at 10:54AM CDT until May 31 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rainfall has caused the Ohio River to rise above flood stage at Shawneetown. For the Ohio River...including Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until Sunday evening.
IMPACTS At 33.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs affecting mainly bottomland and surrounding low lying areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:30 AM CDT Friday the stage was 33.3 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 33.5 feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage early Sunday afternoon. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Southern Rain Surge Contrasts with Sunny Northern Skies
A split-weather pattern will dominate the Commonwealth on Friday. A weak southern-stream shortwave will trigger widespread light to moderate rain showers across Western and South-Central Kentucky. Meanwhile, Northern and Eastern Kentucky will remain under the influence of a departing high-pressure system, resulting in mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists in the temperature forecast and the dry conditions for Eastern Kentucky. Moderate uncertainty remains regarding the northern extent of the rain shield and localized totals in the southwest.
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Purchase Area
Expect a damp day across the Purchase area as a disturbance moves through. Rain will be most persistent during the late morning and afternoon hours. Accumulations around 0.25 inches are expected, making for wet roads but no significant flooding.
Northwest Pennyrile
Cloudy skies will prevail for most of the day, with rain chances remaining low until the evening hours. Temperatures will reach the lower 80s before any light rain arrives.
Southwest Pennyrile
Rain will develop by early afternoon and become steady through the evening. Some periods of moderate rainfall are possible. Expect accumulations around 0.55 inches, with higher totals possible toward the Tennessee border.
Barren River
The day will start dry with increasing clouds. Rain showers will move in from the southwest during the late afternoon and evening. Accumulations around 0.30 inches are expected by midnight.
Louisville Metro
The Louisville area will remain dry today, though clouds will increase and thicken throughout the afternoon. Highs will reach the low 80s with light winds.
Lincoln Trail
Mostly cloudy skies are expected. While most areas will stay dry, a few stray light showers could reach the southern part of the region late. Temperatures will be very comfortable in the low 80s.
Lake Cumberland
A nice day is expected with rain chances holding off until the evening. Showers will move in from the west after sunset. Accumulations around 0.15 inches are expected overnight.
Northern Kentucky
Enjoy a beautiful late May day with mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures in the upper 70s. Winds will be light, making for a perfect day for outdoor activities.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington and the surrounding area will see a bright and warm day with highs near 80 degrees. Rain will stay well to the west, leaving the Bluegrass dry.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a warm day with plenty of sunshine through the afternoon. A few high clouds may drift in late in the day. Highs will reach the low 80s.
Northeast Kentucky
A very pleasant day is in store for Ashland and the northeast. Full sunshine will help temperatures climb to near 80 degrees.
Southeast Kentucky
Enjoy a beautiful, warm day in the mountains. Highs will reach the low 80s in the valleys under sunny skies. Winds will be very light.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the shortwave tracks slightly further north and moisture overcomes the mid-level dry air, steady rain could reach the Louisville and Lexington metros, with totals in the Southwest Pennyrile exceeding 1.25 inches.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry air is more robust, rain may struggle to measure east of Paducah, resulting in nothing more than scattered sprinkles and 'virga' for the Barren River and Lake Cumberland regions.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Cloud Cover Boundary
Euro guidance suggests nearly 100 percent cloud cover for Central Kentucky, while GFS and NAM maintain mostly sunny conditions for the Bluegrass Core.
Why NAM Wins
NAM thermal profiles suggest the mid-level dry air will be slower to erode than the Euro suggests, allowing for more sunshine in the eastern half of the state through the afternoon.
The Southwest Soaking Conflict
The NAM is aggressively forecasting a bullseye of nearly 1.00 inch of rain for the Southwest Pennyrile, while the GFS remains significantly drier with less than 0.10 inch, and the Euro offers a middle-ground solution near 0.40 inch.
Why EURO Wins
The NAM's 'Bullseye Effect' often over-forecasts localized totals in stratiform setups, while the GFS 'Smear Effect' likely under-represents the moisture surge. The Euro provides a consistent synoptic middle ground for rainfall intensity.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.