Thursday, May 28
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 27 at 6:25AM EDT until May 29 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
...The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a Flood Advisory for the following rivers in Kentucky... Elkhorn Creek Near Peaks Mill affecting Franklin County. .Heavy rain from the past 24 hours will cause the river to continue to rise.
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Elkhorn Creek near Peaks Mill.
WHEN From this morning to early Friday morning.
IMPACTS At 10.0 feet, Stillhouse Hollow Road floods. At 11.0 feet, Schoolhouse Road floods. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 5:15 AM EDT Wednesday the stage was 9.1 feet. - Action stage is 8.0 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 9.8 feet this morning. - Action stage is 8.0 feet. - Flood stage is 10.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternative route. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/lmk. The next statement will be issued by middaylate tonight at 1230 AM EDT.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 27 at 9:37PM EDT until May 28 at 12:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of south central and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in south central Kentucky, Rockcastle. In southeast Kentucky, Jackson.
WHEN Until 1245 AM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 937 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Mount Vernon, Boone, Bummer, Wildie, Disputanta, Roundstone, Climax, Hummel, Rockford, Muellersville, Conway, Snider, Orlando, Dudley Station, Johnetta, Threelinks, Goochland, Renfro Valley, Lake Linville and Cooksburg.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued May 28 at 2:56AM EDT until May 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
WHEN Until 10 AM EDT this morning.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.
If driving, slow down, use your low-beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 28 at 3:29AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
Some patchy dense fog is occurring this morning, especially in lower terrain areas. Fog may become more widespread for some areas over the next few hours. For those traveling, utilize low-beam headlights, leave extra distance between cars and use extra caution when driving.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 28 at 3:35AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
Saturated ground from recent rains and ample low-level moisture have supported the development of patchy fog across portions of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Motorists should be prepared for sudden changes in visibility to one-half mile or less by reducing speed, increasing following distance, and turning off high beam headlights. Fog should dissipate within a few hours of sunrise later this morning.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 28 at 3:42AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Much drier air moving in atop lingering moist air at the ground is resulting in the formation of areas of dense fog. Visibility will be reduced to a quarter mile or less in some locations at times early this morning. Be prepared for sudden changes in visibility if you will be driving early this morning. If you encounter dense fog, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 28 at 5:23AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
Saturated ground from recent rains and ample low-level moisture have supported the development of patchy fog across portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Motorists should be prepared for sudden changes in visibility to one-half mile or less by reducing speed, increasing following distance, and turning off high beam headlights. Fog should dissipate by mid-morning.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 28 at 6:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
Some patchy dense fog is occurring this morning, especially in lower terrain areas. Fog will dissipate between 8am and 10am. For those traveling, utilize low-beam headlights, leave extra distance between cars and use extra caution when driving.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 28 at 6:17AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
Fog has developed across portions of the region this morning. Fog could be dense in some locations, with visibility a quarter of a mile or less. Use caution if traveling, and be alert for rapidly changing visibility over a short distance. Use low beam headlights and allow for greater distances between vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 28 at 10:31AM CDT until June 1 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The National Weather Service in Paducah KY has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rainfall will cause the Ohio River to rise above flood stage at Shawneetown later today. For the Ohio River...including Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN From this evening to early Monday morning.
IMPACTS At 33.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs affecting mainly bottomland and surrounding low lying areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 9:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 32.6 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this evening to a crest of 33.7 feet tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday evening. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Morning Drizzle Followed by a Warm, Sunny Afternoon
A weak, moisture-starved shortwave will cross the Commonwealth on Thursday, bringing scattered light rain and drizzle during the morning hours, primarily for western and central regions. Cloud cover will break up rapidly from west to east by midday, leading to a pleasant and warm afternoon with temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 80s.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall thermal profile and clearing trend, though slight timing differences exist regarding when the dry air scours out the morning clouds.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a few light rain showers during the morning commute. Clouds will clear by midday, leading to a warm afternoon with temperatures in the mid-80s.
Northwest Pennyrile
Any morning dampness will dry up quickly after sunrise. A very warm afternoon is ahead with plenty of sunshine and highs near 84.
Southwest Pennyrile
Light rain is possible through mid-morning before skies clear. The afternoon will be warm and breezy with highs in the mid-80s.
Barren River
A few light sprinkles may fall early in the day. Expect a bright and breezy afternoon with temperatures reaching 83.
Louisville Metro
The city should stay dry, though a stray sprinkle is possible early. Skies will clear by noon, making for a beautiful and warm afternoon.
Lincoln Trail
Expect some patchy drizzle before lunch, then a return to sunshine. Highs will reach the low 80s with a steady breeze.
Lake Cumberland
Cloudy morning skies will clear out by the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-80s, perfect for the lake.
Northern Kentucky
Light rain is likely through mid-morning before clearing. A very comfortable afternoon with highs near 80.
Inner Bluegrass
Clouds will linger through the morning but will give way to sun. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s with gusty winds.
Bluegrass Foothills
A damp start to the day is possible with light drizzle. Skies clear by lunch for a warm, pleasant afternoon.
Northeast Kentucky
Light rain will exit early in the morning. A bright afternoon is expected with highs near 80.
Southeast Kentucky
Light showers are possible in the valleys through mid-morning. Expect a warm and clear afternoon with temperatures reaching 81.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If low-level moisture saturates faster than models suggest, the morning drizzle could manifest as steady light rain with totals reaching 0.10 inches statewide.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Significant dewpoint depressions in the boundary layer could result in a 'Virga' event, where radar shows rain that never reaches the ground, leaving the state entirely dry.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Timing and Placement Tussle
Models disagree on the timing and location of the best moisture plume. The NAM and Euro focus on a morning shortwave impacting central and eastern KY, while the GFS holds moisture back for an afternoon/evening event in the far west.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro handles the mid-level 'dry slot' and moisture cutoffs better than the GFS in these low-amplitude regimes. The NAM's high PoP with zero accumulation confirms the Euro's moisture-starved solution.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.