kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Tue, May 26
Thu, May 28
Forecast For

Wednesday, May 27

Updated May 26, 7:12 PM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Watch

May 26, 1:25 PM -> May 26, 9:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued May 26 at 1:25PM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

May 26, 1:44 PM -> May 27, 12:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued May 26 at 1:44PM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

May 26, 2:33 PM -> May 27, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued May 26 at 2:33PM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

May 26, 2:33 PM -> May 27, 6:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued May 26 at 2:33PM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Warning

May 26, 4:39 PM -> May 27, 11:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued May 26 at 3:39PM CDT until May 27 at 10:53PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Tornado Warning

May 26, 7:56 PM -> May 26, 8:15 PM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Warning issued May 26 at 7:56PM EDT until May 26 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

May 26, 8:01 PM -> May 26, 8:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued May 26 at 7:01PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

May 26, 8:02 PM -> May 26, 8:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued May 26 at 7:02PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Tornado Warning

May 26, 8:06 PM -> May 26, 8:45 PM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Warning issued May 26 at 8:06PM EDT until May 26 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

May 26, 9:20 PM -> May 27, 5:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued May 26 at 9:20PM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

May 26, 9:42 PM -> May 27, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued May 26 at 9:42PM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Warning

May 26, 10:15 PM -> May 27, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued May 26 at 9:15PM CDT until May 27 at 8:36PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

May 26, 10:23 PM -> May 27, 1:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued May 26 at 10:23PM EDT until May 27 at 1:30AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

May 26, 11:24 PM -> May 27, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued May 26 at 11:24PM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

May 26, 11:24 PM -> May 27, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued May 26 at 11:24PM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

May 27, 12:13 AM -> May 27, 1:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued May 27 at 12:13AM EDT until May 27 at 1:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

May 27, 12:19 AM -> May 27, 2:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued May 27 at 12:19AM EDT until May 27 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

May 27, 12:24 AM -> May 27, 2:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued May 27 at 12:24AM EDT until May 27 at 2:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

May 27, 2:20 AM -> May 27, 10:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued May 27 at 2:20AM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

May 27, 5:41 AM -> May 27, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued May 27 at 5:41AM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

May 27, 6:10 AM -> May 27, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued May 27 at 6:10AM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

May 27, 6:25 AM -> May 28, 12:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued May 27 at 6:25AM EDT until May 29 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

May 27, 9:08 AM -> May 27, 6:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued May 27 at 9:08AM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

May 27, 9:42 AM -> May 27, 6:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued May 27 at 9:42AM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Confidence
85%

Soggy Wednesday: Warm Humidity Meets Heavy Rain Pulses

A deeply saturated and unseasonably warm airmass will trigger multiple rounds of rain across Kentucky. While initial activity will be stratiform, a potent evening pulse of energy will likely generate heavy localized downpours, particularly across Central and Western Kentucky. High humidity will persist state-wide.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in precipitation occurrence and unseasonably warm temperatures. Moderate confidence in exact rainfall totals due to the convective nature of the evening energy pulse.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Late Day Showers and Very Warm
Rain
83°/ 70°

Northwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Significant Rain Threat Late Today
Heavy_Rain
80°/ 69°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Humid with Late Day Showers
Rain
81°/ 69°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Breezy and Wet Near Bowling Green
Rain
80°/ 69°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Rounds of Rain for the City
Rain
79°/ 67°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Passing Showers All Day
Rain
78°/ 68°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Soggy Day Near the Lake
Rain
79°/ 67°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Steadiest Rain in the State
Rain
77°/ 64°

Inner Bluegrass

IMPACTFUL
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Heavy Rain Pulse This Evening
Heavy_Rain
77°/ 65°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Damp and Humid Day
Rain
79°/ 67°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Persistent Rain for Ashland and Morehead
Rain
78°/ 65°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Warm Afternoon with Scattered Showers
Rain
78°/ 67°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the 850mb moisture transport maximizes and shortwave energy slows, training convective elements could lead to rainfall totals exceeding 2.5 inches in Western Kentucky, raising localized flooding concerns.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

Should a mid-level dry slot infiltrate the region faster than modeled, rainfall will remain scattered and light, with totals staying under a quarter-inch for most areas.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Convective Intensity Conflict

The NAM is aggressively modeling a significant convective rain signal (1.9"+) for the Northwest Pennyrile and Bluegrass regions, while the GFS and Euro maintain a much lighter, stratiform solution (0.2"-0.5").

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

The NAM typically resolves the interaction between the Low-Level Jet and stalled boundaries with higher precision inside 48 hours. Given the moisture profiles, the higher rainfall rates are physically plausible.

Affected Regions
NORTHWEST PENNYRILEBLUEGRASS CORELOUISVILLE METRO

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A moist adiabatic profile is established with no significant capping inversion and zero freezing threat through the column.

Thermal Boundary

A weak surface trough is stalled along the Ohio River, acting as the primary focus for moisture convergence.

Diurnal Trend

Muted diurnal curve due to heavy cloud cover; temperatures will remain steady in the 70s and 80s with high dewpoints.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No clean cold frontal passage; instead, a pre-frontal trough passes through Northwest KY around 22z.

Jet Stream Support

Right entrance region divergence from a northern-stream jet streak provides broad synoptic lift.

Energy Status

Series of compact shortwave troughs pivoting through; the most potent pulse arrives between 18z and 00z.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Deep saturation from surface to 500mb; PWATs exceed 1.5 inches.

Precipitation Character

Transition from morning stratiform rain to evening convective downpours.

Flooding Context

Ground is currently receptive, but high-intensity rates in the evening may cause nuisance ponding in urban areas.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

Not applicable; 850mb temps are well above 12C.

Crystal Habit

None.

Road Impact

Wet roads only; high surface temps prevent any frozen concerns.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

87% Illumination
Moonrise
6:00 PM
Moonset
4:17 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:39 AM
Sunset
9:06 PM
Civil Dawn
6:09 AM
Civil Dusk
9:36 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:31 AM
Sunset
9:02 PM
Civil Dawn
6:01 AM
Civil Dusk
9:32 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:35 AM
Sunset
9:01 PM
Civil Dawn
6:06 AM
Civil Dusk
9:31 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:31 AM
Sunset
8:57 PM
Civil Dawn
6:01 AM
Civil Dusk
9:27 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:25 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
5:54 AM
Civil Dusk
9:28 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:27 AM
Sunset
8:56 PM
Civil Dawn
5:56 AM
Civil Dusk
9:27 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:23 AM
Sunset
8:50 PM
Civil Dawn
5:53 AM
Civil Dusk
9:20 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:17 AM
Sunset
8:55 PM
Civil Dawn
5:46 AM
Civil Dusk
9:26 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:20 AM
Sunset
8:52 PM
Civil Dawn
5:50 AM
Civil Dusk
9:23 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:20 AM
Sunset
8:50 PM
Civil Dawn
5:50 AM
Civil Dusk
9:21 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:12 AM
Sunset
8:46 PM
Civil Dawn
5:41 AM
Civil Dusk
9:17 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:17 AM
Sunset
8:45 PM
Civil Dawn
5:47 AM
Civil Dusk
9:15 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.