Tuesday, May 26
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 25 at 11:18AM EDT until May 25 at 10:48PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers... North Fork Licking River near Mount Olivet.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE North Fork Licking River near Mount Olivet.
WHEN Until late this evening.
IMPACTS At 22.0 feet, Widespread lowland road flooding occurs along the river in Bracken, Robertson and western Mason counties. Brandywine Road north of State Route 596 to near Pleasant Ridge Road is flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:45 AM EDT Monday the stage was 22.1 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late this afternoon and continue falling, remaining below flood stage. - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/iln.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 25 at 10:18PM EDT until May 26 at 8:48PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers... North Fork Licking River near Mount Olivet. Scioto River at Circleville.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE North Fork Licking River near Mount Olivet.
WHEN Until Tuesday evening.
IMPACTS At 22.0 feet, Widespread lowland road flooding occurs along the river in Bracken, Robertson and western Mason counties. Brandywine Road north of State Route 596 to near Pleasant Ridge Road is flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 9:45 PM EDT Monday the stage was 21.7 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage early Tuesday afternoon and continue falling, remaining below flood stage. - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/iln.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 26 at 7:10AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 709 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong shower with weak rotation 8 miles south of Russellville, moving north at 20 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Russellville, Adairville, Cave Springs, Danby, Dennis, Oakville, Lickskillet, and Schley.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Brief heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 26 at 7:17AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 716 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong shower with weak rotation 9 miles northeast of Russellville, moving north at 15 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Anderson, Insco, Dimple, Davis Crossroads, Buffalo Fork, Chandlers Chapel, Costelow, Gasper, Quality, and Hadley.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Brief heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 26 at 7:40AM CDT until May 26 at 10:45AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, Butler, Logan and Simpson.
WHEN Until 1045 AM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Some low-water crossings may become impassable. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 740 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Russellville, Anderson, Adairville, Lewisburg, Cooperstown, Danby, Dennis, Homer, Chandlers Chapel and Epleys. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 26 at 8:23AM CDT until May 26 at 11:30AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, Butler and Logan.
WHEN Until 1130 AM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Overflowing poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 823 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Rochester, Silver City, Quality, Harper Crossroads, Huntsville, Pleasant Hill, South Hill, Harreldsville, Leetown and Dunbar. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 26 at 8:42AM CDT until May 26 at 12:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, Butler, Logan, Simpson and Warren.
WHEN Until 1245 PM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Some low-water crossings may become impassable. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 842 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Bowling Green, Memphis Junction, Crestmoor, Franklin, Auburn, Woodburn, Petros, South Union, Rockfield and Turnertown. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 26 at 9:22AM CDT until May 26 at 12:30PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of central and south central Kentucky, including the following counties, in central Kentucky, Ohio. In south central Kentucky, Butler.
WHEN Until 1230 PM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 922 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Hartford, Morgantown, Beaver Dam, Mchenry, Rob Roy, Horton, Mount Pleasant, Sandefur Crossing, Cromwell and Select. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you can do so safely and have them relay your report to the National Weather Service in Louisville.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued May 26 at 9:22AM CDT until May 26 at 12:30PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
FFWLMK The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northeastern Logan County in south central Kentucky... North Central Simpson County in south central Kentucky... Southwestern Warren County in south central Kentucky... * Until 1230 PM CDT. * At 922 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Bowling Green, Plum Springs, Memphis Junction, Crestmoor, Woodburn, Blue Level, Rockfield, Rich Pond, Browning and Petros.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 26 at 1:25PM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter and Greenup, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Mason, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Pleasants, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Tyler, Upshur, Wirt and Wood.
WHEN From late tonight through late Wednesday night.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning late tonight across the north and shifting south through Wednesday night. Given recent rainfall soils are primed for flash flooding with additional heavy rain. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 26 at 1:44PM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE The following counties, in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union and Wayne, the following counties, in Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson, and the following counties, in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Butler, Champaign, Clark, Clermont, Clinton, Darke, Delaware, Fairfield, Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Hamilton, Highland, Hocking, Licking, Logan, Madison, Miami, Montgomery, Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross, Scioto, Shelby, Union and Warren.
WHEN From late tonight through late Wednesday night.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - A warm front will lift north across the Ohio Valley later tonight into Wednesday. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Widespread rainfall amounts of up to an inch can be expected with local amounts of 2 to 3 inches possible.
People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 26 at 2:33PM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE A portion of east central Kentucky, including the following counties, Bath, Fleming, Montgomery and Rowan.
WHEN From Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Recent heavy rainfall has left soil conditions primed for possible flash flooding. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms with torrential downpours are possible on Wednesday near a slow moving boundary.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 26 at 2:33PM EDT until May 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following area, Jefferson IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Bourbon, Franklin, Harrison KY, Henry, Nicholas, Scott KY and Trimble.
WHEN From Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Training showers and storms Wednesday afternoon will track over already saturated areas from Tuesday's event. Localized areas of 1.5-2.5" are possible from training storms through the evening hours. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 26 at 1:38PM CDT until May 26 at 4:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of central Kentucky, including the following counties, Green, Hart, Larue, Marion, Nelson and Taylor.
WHEN Until 445 PM CDT /545 PM EDT/.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Some low-water crossings may become impassable. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 138 PM CDT /238 PM EDT/, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Loretto, Raywick, Mac, Badger, Coakley, Bloyd, Hibernia, Maple, Pitman and White Rose. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 26 at 2:56PM EDT until May 26 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of central Kentucky, including the following counties, Marion, Nelson and Washington.
WHEN Until 600 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Dangerous flows over low-water crossings. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 256 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Bardstown, Loretto, Manton, Botland, Fredericktown, Gandertown, Croakes, Bearwallow, Nerinx and Greenbrier. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued May 26 at 3:18PM EDT until May 26 at 5:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
FFWLMK The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northwestern Marion County in central Kentucky... Central Nelson County in central Kentucky... West Central Washington County in central Kentucky... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 318 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 1 inch in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Loretto, Manton, Fredericktown, Botland, Gandertown, Croakes, Bearwallow, Nerinx, Booker and Maud.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 26 at 4:03PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 402 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong showers with weak rotation 8 miles northwest of Harrodsburg, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Harrodsburg, Ballard, Burgin, Willisburg, Mackville, Oregon, Bondville, Dugansville, Talmage, and Riverview Estates.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service office in Louisville.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 26 at 4:20PM EDT until May 26 at 7:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of central Kentucky, including the following counties, Anderson, Boyle, Marion, Mercer, Washington and Woodford.
WHEN Until 730 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Some low-water crossings may become impassable. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 420 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Lawrenceburg, Harrodsburg, Ballard, Mackville, Cornishville, Duncan, Bohon, Dugansville, Mayo and Tablow. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 26 at 3:39PM CDT until May 27 at 10:53PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
...The National Weather Service in Louisville KY has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Kentucky... Rough River near Dundee affecting Ohio County. .Heavy rain from the past few hours will cause the river to rise.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Rough River near Dundee.
WHEN From this evening to late tomorrow evening.
IMPACTS At 25.0 feet, County roads between Dundee and Narrows flood. At 26.0 feet, County roads near Sunnydale flood. At 27.0 feet, KY 919 flood at Underwood and Clifty Huff Roads near Narrows. At 28.0 feet, Trailer courts in Hartford flood. At 29.0 feet, KY 136 at Heflin Road floods near county line. KY 69 floods near intersection of US 231 in Hartford. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 3:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 20.7 feet. - Bankfull stage is 23.0 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this evening to a crest of 27.1 feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow afternoon. - Flood stage is 25.0 feet. - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 27.1 feet on 12/11/2007. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/lmk. The next statement will be issued by Wednesday morning at 1000 AM CDT.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 26 at 4:57PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 456 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong showers with weak rotation over Nicholasville, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Lexington, Georgetown, Nicholasville, Versailles, Meadowthorpe, Dunbar High School, Thoroughbred Acres, Cardinal Hill, Cadentown, and Northland.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 26 at 5:14PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 513 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers over Coal Run, or near Pikeville, and near Zebulon, both moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Pikeville, Coal Run Village, Canada, Meta, Boldman, Kimper, Coal Run, Raccoon, Zebulon, Sidney, and Phyllis. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... U.S. Highway 119 in Pike County between mile markers 1 and 16. U.S. Highway 23 in Pike County between mile markers 23 and 32.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 26 at 5:23PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 522 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles southeast of Nicholasville, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Lexington, Richmond, Veterans Park, Cadentown, Fayette Mall, Chilesburg, Coletown, Redhouse, Valley View, and Logana.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the National Weather Service. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Tornado Warning
Tornado Warning issued May 26 at 7:56PM EDT until May 26 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 755 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Mariba, or near Frenchburg, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD Tornado and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Wellington around 800 PM EDT. Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Pomeroyton and Stoll.
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the path of dangerous weather. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
A Soggy Tuesday: Widespread Rain and Mild Temperatures
A widespread rain event will impact the Commonwealth on Tuesday as a progressive shortwave trough pivots through the Ohio Valley. While heavy rain is expected in the western half of the state during the morning, showers will gradually march eastward through the afternoon. Despite the damp conditions, temperatures will remain unseasonably mild, with highs reaching the 70s for most regions.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists regarding the precipitation type (100% rain) and the overall synoptic evolution. Confidence is slightly lower on the exact placement of the highest rainfall totals due to model differences in resolving the localized convective enhancements.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Heavy rain will arrive early Tuesday morning, making for a very wet commute in Paducah. Expect around 1.5 inches of rain before it tapers to lighter showers by evening.
Northwest Pennyrile
Steady and at times heavy rain will persist throughout the day. Accumulations around 1.2 inches are expected, potentially causing minor ponding.
Southwest Pennyrile
Rain will be most consistent during the morning and early afternoon hours. Expect accumulations around 1.5 inches.
Barren River
Expect cloudy skies and periods of rain throughout Tuesday. Rainfall totals will reach about 0.7 inches.
Louisville Metro
Rain will move into the Metro area by mid-morning and continue through the afternoon. Expect accumulations around 0.6 inches.
Lincoln Trail
A very wet day is in store for Elizabethtown and surrounding areas. Rain accumulations around 1.0 inch are likely.
Lake Cumberland
Rain will be most active during the middle of the day. Expect around 0.8 inches of total rainfall.
Northern Kentucky
Most of Northern Kentucky will stay dry until the afternoon. Expect light accumulations around 0.1 inches.
Inner Bluegrass
Showers will be steady through much of the afternoon. Expect around 0.8 inches of rain total.
Bluegrass Foothills
Rain will be widespread and steady throughout the day. Accumulations around 0.9 inches are expected.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect dry conditions to start the day, with rain chances increasing by mid-afternoon. Total accumulations around 0.4 inches.
Southeast Kentucky
Rain will move into the mountain valleys by the afternoon hours. Expect around 0.5 inches of rain.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The trough slows its progression, allowing for training convective cells in Western and Central Kentucky. This would maximize rainfall totals near 2.5 inches in the Pennyrile, leading to localized nuisance flooding in poor-drainage areas.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Dry air entrainment into the mid-levels occurs faster than modeled, causing the rain to break into more scattered, light showers. In this scenario, totals would struggle to reach 0.25 inches for most locations east of I-65.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Western Rainfall Bullseye
The NAM and GEM are aggressively forecasting a localized 'bullseye' of 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rain across the Pennyrile and Lincoln Trail regions. The GFS and Euro are more conservative, suggesting a broader area of 1.0 inch totals.
Why EURO Wins
In environments with very low CAPE (instability), the NAM's 'bullseye' effect often over-forecasts localized convective totals. The Euro's 'steady hand' approach better aligns with the stratiform nature of the forced ascent.
The Northern Moisture Cutoff
The GEM model suggests a significant dry slot for Northern Kentucky, keeping the region almost entirely dry, while the GFS and Euro show light rain extending to the Ohio River.
Why GFS Wins
While the GFS has a 'smear' bias, the overall synoptic support and moisture transport values suggest the northern regions will see at least light measurable precipitation rather than remaining completely dry.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.