Monday, May 25
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 24 at 12:52PM EDT until May 25 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, southwest Virginia, including the following counties, Buchanan and Dickenson, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Logan, Mason, McDowell, Mingo, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Raleigh, Northwest Webster, Pleasants, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Raleigh, Southeast Webster, Tyler, Upshur, Wayne, Wirt, Wood and Wyoming.
WHEN Through late tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers will become more numerous this afternoon and persist into tonight, with embedded heavier downpours, including afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible through tonight, with locally higher amounts. Creeks, streams and even some rivers across portions of the area are running high given the recent rainfall, and could flood with more heavy rain. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 24 at 12:55PM EDT until May 24 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE The Flood Watch is for portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties. Bath, Elliott, Estill, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell, Rowan, Johnson, Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Rockcastle, Wayne, Whitley, Breathitt, Clay, Jackson, Knox, Lee, Magoffin, Morgan, Owsley, and Wolfe.
WHEN The Flood Watch is in effect until 11 PM EDT tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms will affect most of the area, and where they are most persistent, flash flooding could occur. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flash Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 24 at 12:55PM EDT until May 25 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE The Flood Watch is for portions of northeast and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties. Martin, Bell, Floyd, Harlan, Knott, Leslie, Letcher, Perry, and Pike.
WHEN The Flood Watch is in effect until 1 AM tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms will affect most of the area, and where they are most persistent, flash flooding could occur. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flash Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 24 at 5:12PM EDT until May 26 at 2:30PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
...The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers... North Fork Licking River near Mount Olivet.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE North Fork Licking River near Mount Olivet.
WHEN From this afternoon to early Tuesday afternoon.
IMPACTS At 22.0 feet, widespread lowland road flooding occurs along the river in Bracken, Robertson and western Mason counties. Brandywine Road north of State Route 596 to near Pleasant Ridge Road is flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 4:45 PM EDT Sunday the stage was 20.1 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 23.0 feet Monday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Tuesday morning. - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/iln.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 24 at 5:40PM EDT until May 24 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Lewis County Kentucky and Adams, Pike, Ross and Scioto Counties in Ohio.
WHEN Until 845 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 540 PM EDT, Local law enforcement reported minor flooding in the advisory area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.2 to 0.5 inches are possible. - Some locations that may experience flooding include... Portsmouth, Waverly, Wheelersburg, New Boston, Piketon, Greenup, South Webster, Lucasville, Clarktown, Rosemount, Sciotodale, Franklin Furnace, Rome, Blue Creek, Londonderry, Beaver, Rarden, Otway and Bear Creek.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 24 at 6:22PM EDT until May 24 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of east central and south central Kentucky, including the following areas, in east central Kentucky, Bourbon, Clark KY, Fayette, Garrard, Harrison KY, Jessamine, Madison, Nicholas, Scott KY and Woodford. In south central Kentucky, Lincoln.
WHEN Until 11 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Heavy rainfall from earlier today and a few lingering light rain showers will lead to lingering high water and minor flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 24 at 6:30PM EDT until May 24 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE The following counties, in Kentucky, Bracken, Lewis, Mason and Robertson and the following counties, in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Highland, Hocking, Pike, Ross and Scioto.
WHEN Until 11 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more heavy rain. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - The flash flood threat will gradually diminish this evening with the loss of heavier rainfall. However, periods of showers expected to continue through this evening, which will keep adding water into rivers/streams that are already running high. Several high water spots and road closures remain throughout the Watch area.
People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued May 24 at 7:19PM EDT until May 24 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 719 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated training showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.25 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is likely ongoing. Additional light rainfall is possible this evening, which may allow flooding to persist.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by training showers and thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Vicco, Yeaddiss, Big Rock, Daisy, Cornettsville, Big Fork, Causey, Napier and Sassafras.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 24 at 7:39PM EDT until May 24 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Minor flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Floyd, Knott, Letcher, Perry and Pike.
WHEN Until 900 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 737 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rainfall from this afternoon's training showers and thunderstorms. Minor flooding is likely ongoing in portions of the advisory area. Between 1.0 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional light rainfall is expected over the area this evening. This additional rain may allow minor flooding to persist. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Pikeville, Hindman, Estill, Bath, Coal Run Village, Wheelwright, Fleming-Neon, Martin, Pippa Passes, Forest Hills, Wayland, Vicco, Allen, Buckhorn Hollow, Craynor, Beaver, Hi Hat, Ligon and Orkney.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 24 at 7:45PM EDT until May 24 at 9:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Minor flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following county, Pike.
WHEN Until 915 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 743 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rainfall from this afternoon's training showers and thunderstorms. Minor flooding is likely ongoing in portions of the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.75 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional light rainfall is expected over the area this evening. This additional rain may allow minor flooding to persist. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Phyllis, Biggs, Kimper, Fishtrap Lake, Fedscreek, Mouthcard, Mcandrews, Coleman, Belcher, Marrowbone, Huddy, Cedarville, Phelps, Garden Village, Board Tree, Belfry, Hardy, Jamboree and Rockhouse.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 24 at 8:04PM EDT until May 25 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, southwest Virginia, including the following counties, Buchanan and Dickenson, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Logan, Mason, McDowell, Mingo, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Raleigh, Northwest Webster, Pleasants, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Raleigh, Southeast Webster, Tyler, Upshur, Wayne, Wirt, Wood and Wyoming.
WHEN Until 2 AM EDT Monday.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms, with locally heavy rains, will continue through late tonight. Creeks, and streams across the area are running high, and given the recent rainfall, flooding is possible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 25 at 11:18AM EDT until May 25 at 10:48PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers... North Fork Licking River near Mount Olivet.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE North Fork Licking River near Mount Olivet.
WHEN Until late this evening.
IMPACTS At 22.0 feet, Widespread lowland road flooding occurs along the river in Bracken, Robertson and western Mason counties. Brandywine Road north of State Route 596 to near Pleasant Ridge Road is flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:45 AM EDT Monday the stage was 22.1 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late this afternoon and continue falling, remaining below flood stage. - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/iln.
Persistent Clouds and Scattered Showers to Dampen Monday
A weak atmospheric disturbance will cross Kentucky on Monday, bringing widespread cloud cover and periods of light rain, primarily affecting central and eastern regions. Western Kentucky will remain the warmest and driest area, while the southeast mountains will see the most persistent precipitation. Temperatures will remain mild and humid for late May, though suppressed by thick cloud cover.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall synoptic setup and the lack of severe weather; however, minor timing differences and moisture depth disagreements in the mountains prevent a higher score.
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Purchase Area
The Purchase area will stay largely dry on Monday. Expect plenty of clouds in the morning, with some sun breaking through by the afternoon. Temperations will be the warmest in the state, reaching the low 80s.
Northwest Pennyrile
It will be a gray day along the Ohio River. While most of the day is dry, a few light showers are possible in the afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 70s with high humidity.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect a cloudy day with intermittent light rain, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall will be light and shouldn't cause major travel issues.
Barren River
A soggy day is expected in Bowling Green with light rain showers likely throughout the day. Highs will be near 76 degrees under thick cloud cover.
Louisville Metro
The best chance for rain in the Metro area will be during the morning commute. The afternoon will remain gray and cloudy. Temperatures will be steady in the mid-70s.
Lincoln Trail
Expect cloudy skies and occasional light rain or drizzle throughout the day. Rainfall will be very light, with totals around a tenth of an inch.
Lake Cumberland
It will be a dreary day around the lake with persistent light rain and patchy fog. Conditions will be cool and damp with a high around 74.
Northern Kentucky
Unlike areas further south, Northern Kentucky should escape the rain. Expect a mostly cloudy but dry Monday. Highs will be comfortable in the mid-70s.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see gray skies all day. A few light sprinkles or sprinkles are possible, but significant rain is not expected. Highs will stay around 74 degrees.
Bluegrass Foothills
Steady light rain will fall for much of the morning and afternoon in the foothills. Expect totals around a quarter-inch and overcast skies.
Northeast Kentucky
A rainy start to the day is expected. Light rain will be common through noon, with clouds lingering through the evening. Highs will reach the mid-70s.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will see the most rain today. Expect around a half-inch of steady rain through the morning and afternoon. Fog and low clouds will likely persist throughout the day.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the shortwave trough slows and deepens as suggested by the GFS, rainfall totals could approach one inch in the Southeast Coalfields with widespread quarter-inch totals elsewhere.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If dry air in the mid-levels remains as stubborn as the NAM suggests, much of the precipitation will evaporate as virga, resulting in little more than a few sprinkles and trace amounts for the Bluegrass and Metro areas.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Mountain Moisture Margin
A significant disagreement exists regarding the intensity of orographic enhancement in the Southeast Coalfields. The GFS predicts nearly an inch of rain, while the NAM and GEM suggest totals will struggle to reach a quarter-inch.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides a physically consistent middle ground, acknowledging the high boundary layer moisture while accounting for the lack of strong vertical forcing noted in the high-resolution NAM.
The Bluegrass Virga Vexation
NAM soundings show a significant dry layer below 850mb in the Bluegrass Core, suggesting rain may not reach the ground, while the GFS/Euro show a fully saturated column.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically resolves shallow dry layers and the resulting 'virga' effect better than global models in weak-lift scenarios.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.