Sunday, May 24
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 23 at 9:40PM EDT until May 23 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Minor flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
WHERE A portion of east central Kentucky, including the following counties, Bath, Fleming, Montgomery and Rowan.
WHEN Until 1100 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 933 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to training showers and thunderstorms. Minor flooding is likely ongoing in portions of the advisory area. Up to 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall is possible later this evening as another round of showers approaches the area. This could cause any ongoing minor flooding to persist or worsen. - Some locations that may experience flooding include... Morehead, Owingsville, Marshall, Salt Lick, Ramey, Farmers, Freestone, Midland, Bluestone, Sharkey, Moore's Ferry, Hilda, Brandy, Ringos Mills, Polksville, Munson, Young Springs, Clearfield, Hays Crossing and Rodburn.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads, especially at night. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 23 at 10:43PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 1043 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Saxton, or 8 miles southeast of Williamsburg, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Gatliff, Emlyn, Birdseye, Red Ash, Verne, Pleasant View, Pruden, Polly Camp, Wheeler, Nevisdale, Dixie, Siler, Frakes, Davisburg, Packard, Fonde, Wilkerson, Lucky, Lot, and Pearl. THIS INCLUDES Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile markers 1 and 8.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 23 at 10:48PM EDT until May 24 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Cabell, Jackson WV, Mason, Pleasants, Ritchie, Tyler, Wayne, Wirt and Wood.
WHEN Until 4 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more heavy rain. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Localized heavy rain is expected overnight within heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms, with additional rainfall totals of 1-2" possible tonight in some areas. Rivers, creeks and streams across portions of the area are running high given the recent rainfall, and could flood with more heavy rain. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 24 at 1:55AM EDT until May 24 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, McCreary and Wayne.
WHEN Until 500 AM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 155 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.8 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.3 to 0.8 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Monticello, Whitley City, Rockeybranch, Coopersville, Kidds Crossing, Griffin, Slavens, Barrier, Parmleysville, Burfield, Oil Valley, Gregory, Ritner, Denney, Great Meadows Campsites, Co-Operative, Mount Pisgah, Delta, Cooper and Betsey.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 24 at 2:51AM EDT until May 24 at 6:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, Pulaski, Rockcastle and Wayne.
WHEN Until 600 AM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 250 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.8 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.3 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Somerset, Burnside, Ruth, Elihu, Somerset Pulaski Airport, Tateville, Grade, General Burnside S.P., Bronston, Quinton, Bent, Shopville, Kidder, Frazer, Betsey, Bloss, Mill Springs, Billows and Ferguson.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 24 at 12:52PM EDT until May 25 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, southwest Virginia, including the following counties, Buchanan and Dickenson, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Logan, Mason, McDowell, Mingo, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Raleigh, Northwest Webster, Pleasants, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Raleigh, Southeast Webster, Tyler, Upshur, Wayne, Wirt, Wood and Wyoming.
WHEN Through late tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers will become more numerous this afternoon and persist into tonight, with embedded heavier downpours, including afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible through tonight, with locally higher amounts. Creeks, streams and even some rivers across portions of the area are running high given the recent rainfall, and could flood with more heavy rain. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 24 at 12:55PM EDT until May 24 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE The Flood Watch is for portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties. Bath, Elliott, Estill, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell, Rowan, Johnson, Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Rockcastle, Wayne, Whitley, Breathitt, Clay, Jackson, Knox, Lee, Magoffin, Morgan, Owsley, and Wolfe.
WHEN The Flood Watch is in effect until 11 PM EDT tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms will affect most of the area, and where they are most persistent, flash flooding could occur. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flash Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 24 at 12:55PM EDT until May 25 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE The Flood Watch is for portions of northeast and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties. Martin, Bell, Floyd, Harlan, Knott, Leslie, Letcher, Perry, and Pike.
WHEN The Flood Watch is in effect until 1 AM tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms will affect most of the area, and where they are most persistent, flash flooding could occur. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flash Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 24 at 5:12PM EDT until May 26 at 2:30PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
...The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers... North Fork Licking River near Mount Olivet.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE North Fork Licking River near Mount Olivet.
WHEN From this afternoon to early Tuesday afternoon.
IMPACTS At 22.0 feet, widespread lowland road flooding occurs along the river in Bracken, Robertson and western Mason counties. Brandywine Road north of State Route 596 to near Pleasant Ridge Road is flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 4:45 PM EDT Sunday the stage was 20.1 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 23.0 feet Monday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Tuesday morning. - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/iln.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 24 at 5:40PM EDT until May 24 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Lewis County Kentucky and Adams, Pike, Ross and Scioto Counties in Ohio.
WHEN Until 845 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 540 PM EDT, Local law enforcement reported minor flooding in the advisory area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.2 to 0.5 inches are possible. - Some locations that may experience flooding include... Portsmouth, Waverly, Wheelersburg, New Boston, Piketon, Greenup, South Webster, Lucasville, Clarktown, Rosemount, Sciotodale, Franklin Furnace, Rome, Blue Creek, Londonderry, Beaver, Rarden, Otway and Bear Creek.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 24 at 6:22PM EDT until May 24 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of east central and south central Kentucky, including the following areas, in east central Kentucky, Bourbon, Clark KY, Fayette, Garrard, Harrison KY, Jessamine, Madison, Nicholas, Scott KY and Woodford. In south central Kentucky, Lincoln.
WHEN Until 11 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Heavy rainfall from earlier today and a few lingering light rain showers will lead to lingering high water and minor flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 24 at 6:30PM EDT until May 24 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE The following counties, in Kentucky, Bracken, Lewis, Mason and Robertson and the following counties, in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Highland, Hocking, Pike, Ross and Scioto.
WHEN Until 11 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more heavy rain. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - The flash flood threat will gradually diminish this evening with the loss of heavier rainfall. However, periods of showers expected to continue through this evening, which will keep adding water into rivers/streams that are already running high. Several high water spots and road closures remain throughout the Watch area.
People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued May 24 at 7:19PM EDT until May 24 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 719 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated training showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.25 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is likely ongoing. Additional light rainfall is possible this evening, which may allow flooding to persist.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by training showers and thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Vicco, Yeaddiss, Big Rock, Daisy, Cornettsville, Big Fork, Causey, Napier and Sassafras.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 24 at 7:39PM EDT until May 24 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Minor flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Floyd, Knott, Letcher, Perry and Pike.
WHEN Until 900 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 737 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rainfall from this afternoon's training showers and thunderstorms. Minor flooding is likely ongoing in portions of the advisory area. Between 1.0 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional light rainfall is expected over the area this evening. This additional rain may allow minor flooding to persist. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Pikeville, Hindman, Estill, Bath, Coal Run Village, Wheelwright, Fleming-Neon, Martin, Pippa Passes, Forest Hills, Wayland, Vicco, Allen, Buckhorn Hollow, Craynor, Beaver, Hi Hat, Ligon and Orkney.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 24 at 7:45PM EDT until May 24 at 9:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Minor flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following county, Pike.
WHEN Until 915 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 743 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rainfall from this afternoon's training showers and thunderstorms. Minor flooding is likely ongoing in portions of the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.75 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional light rainfall is expected over the area this evening. This additional rain may allow minor flooding to persist. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Phyllis, Biggs, Kimper, Fishtrap Lake, Fedscreek, Mouthcard, Mcandrews, Coleman, Belcher, Marrowbone, Huddy, Cedarville, Phelps, Garden Village, Board Tree, Belfry, Hardy, Jamboree and Rockhouse.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Kentucky's Soggy Sunday: Widespread Rain Dampens the State
A slow-moving weather system will traverse the Commonwealth on Sunday, bringing widespread cloud cover and persistent rain showers. While rainfall totals will vary, most of the state can expect a damp day with mild temperatures in the 60s and 70s. No severe weather or wintry precipitation is expected.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for precipitation occurrence and thermal profiles. The only uncertainty remains in the exact placement of the heaviest rainfall bands, leading to a minor deduction.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a wet start to the day with rain showers moving through during the morning and midday hours. Rainfall totals will be around 0.35 inches. Cloudy skies will persist throughout the afternoon, though the steadiest rain should move east by late evening.
Northwest Pennyrile
Rain will be most likely during the late morning and early afternoon. Accumulations are expected to be around 0.25 inches. The day will remain overcast and damp, with light drizzle possible into the evening hours.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect off-and-on rain showers through most of the day, with around 0.40 inches of total rainfall. The heaviest rain will likely occur during the afternoon commute before tapering to drizzle tonight.
Barren River
A wet day is in store with rainfall totals near 0.40 inches. Wind gusts of up to 20 mph may accompany the rain showers. Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 60s and low 70s under thick cloud cover.
Louisville Metro
Overcast skies will prevail all day with periods of rain, especially during the afternoon. Total rainfall will be around 0.40 inches. The rain will be light to moderate, making for a damp day for any outdoor activities.
Lincoln Trail
The Lincoln Trail region will see persistent rainfall today, with totals expected around 0.50 inches. Rain will be most frequent from mid-morning through late afternoon before tapering off tonight.
Lake Cumberland
A consistently wet day is expected for Lake Cumberland, with rainfall totals reaching around 0.75 inches. Boaters should be aware of breezy conditions with gusts near 20 mph during the heavier rain bands.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will see rain arrive in the late morning, with around 0.35 inches of accumulation expected. The afternoon will be grey and damp, with drizzle persisting into the late evening hours.
Inner Bluegrass
Steady rain will affect the Bluegrass region for much of the day. Expect around 0.80 inches of total rainfall. The heaviest rain will likely occur in the late morning and early afternoon, potentially causing minor ponding on roads.
Bluegrass Foothills
Rain will be persistent today with around 0.70 inches expected. Terrain-enhanced winds may gust up to 25 mph at times. Expect a soggy day from start to finish as the system pushes through the eastern hills.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will move into Northeast Kentucky by mid-morning and likely stick around for most of the day. Totals will be around 0.40 inches. Temperatures will be steady, remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s throughout the event.
Southeast Kentucky
The morning will be dry but overcast, with rain showers arriving and peaking during the late afternoon and evening. Totals will be around 0.35 inches. Winds may gust to 25 mph in the higher elevations as the rain moves through.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the NAM's higher moisture totals verify and the trough slows further, much of Central Kentucky could see rainfall totals exceeding 1.5 inches, potentially leading to localized ponding on roads.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the GFS's drier mid-level air filters in faster, rainfall could be limited to intermittent light drizzle and trace amounts, specifically in the Western Purchase and Northwest Pennyrile regions.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Bluegrass QPF Bullseye
The NAM is an aggressive outlier, forecasting over 1.4 inches of rain for Lexington, whereas the GFS and GEM are much lower, closer to 0.4 inches.
Why BLEND Wins
While the NAM often captures localized moisture plumes better, its 1.4 inch total is currently an outlier. A blend captures the high-end potential without overcommitting to the NAM's extreme solution.
The Western Moisture Disconnect
A significant disagreement exists regarding moisture depth in Western Kentucky. The GFS and NAM suggest mid-level dry air will significantly limit rainfall totals, while the Euro and GEM maintain a more saturated column with higher accumulations.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro and GEM show better synoptic consistency with the upstream moisture plume. The GFS 'Smear' effect is likely underestimating the coverage of measurable rain in this moisture-rich environment.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.