Saturday, May 23
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 11:50AM EDT until May 23 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following area, Jefferson IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Bourbon, Clark KY, Fayette, Franklin, Harrison KY, Henry, Nicholas, Scott KY and Trimble.
WHEN Through late tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Incoming clusters of storms producing heavy downpours creates the potential for flooding in isolated areas later this evening. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 11:50AM EDT until May 23 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Floyd, Harrison IN, Scott IN and Washington IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Jefferson, Jessamine, Madison, Oldham, Shelby and Woodford.
WHEN Through late tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Incoming clusters of storms producing heavy downpours creates the potential for flooding in isolated areas later this evening. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 12:23PM EDT until May 23 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE The following counties, in southeast Indiana, Ohio and Switzerland, the following counties, in Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson, and the following counties, in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Clermont, Fairfield, Fayette, Franklin, Highland, Hocking, Licking, Pickaway, Pike, Ross and Scioto.
WHEN Through late tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue into tonight. One inch of rain is expected area wide with locally heavy rainfall possibly resulting in up to 3 inches in spots. This heavier rain could lead to flash flooding.
People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 12:34PM EDT until May 23 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Cabell, Jackson WV, Mason, Pleasants, Ritchie, Tyler, Wayne, Wirt and Wood.
WHEN Through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rain will persist through tonight. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are expected across the area, with locally higher amounts possible in locations impacted by thunderstorms or just Embedded heavier downpours. Areas that received locally heavy rain over the past several days will be most vulnerable to flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 12:54PM EDT until May 23 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE A portion of east central Kentucky, including the following counties, Bath, Elliott, Fleming, Montgomery and Rowan.
WHEN Through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely into tonight with many locations, generally along and north of the I-64 corridor, already soaked from storms of the past few days. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain are expected for basin averages into Saturday morning with localized higher amounts of up to 3 inches possible where training of convective cells occur. This could lead to incidents of flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 7:14PM EDT until May 23 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE A portion of east central Kentucky, including the following counties, Bath, Elliott, Fleming, Montgomery and Rowan.
WHEN Through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight with many locations, generally along and north of the I-64 corridor, already soaked from storms of the past few days. Any additional heavy rain could lead to incidents of flash flooding.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 7:57PM EDT until May 23 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Cabell, Jackson WV, Mason, Pleasants, Ritchie, Tyler, Wayne, Wirt and Wood.
WHEN Through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rain will persist through tonight. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are expected across the area, with locally higher amounts possible in locations impacted by thunderstorms or just Embedded heavier downpours. Areas that received locally heavy rain over the past several days will be most vulnerable to flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 22 at 7:37PM CDT until May 22 at 10:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of central Kentucky, including the following counties, Breckinridge, Hardin and Meade.
WHEN Until 1045 PM CDT /1145 PM EDT/.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 736 PM CDT /836 PM EDT/, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain showers. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Hardinsburg, Webster, Irvington, Ekron, Bewleyville, Rosetta, Corners, Basin Spring, Graysville and High Plains. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 22 at 8:45PM EDT until May 22 at 11:45PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE The following county, in northern Kentucky, Campbell and the following county, in southwest Ohio, Clermont.
WHEN Until 1145 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 845 PM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible. - Some locations that may experience flooding include... Amelia, Bethel, New Richmond, Williamsburg, Batavia, Owensville, Goshen, Newtonsville, Mentor, Moscow, California, East Fork State Park, Bantam, Clermont County Airport, Lindale, Nicholsville, Saltair and Edenton.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. To report flooding, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 8:58PM EDT until May 23 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE The following counties, in southeast Indiana, Dearborn, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley and Switzerland, the following counties, in Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson, and the following counties, in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Fairfield, Fayette, Franklin, Hamilton, Highland, Hocking, Licking, Pickaway, Pike, Ross, Scioto and Warren.
WHEN Until 5 AM EDT Saturday.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional rounds of showers, along with embedded thunderstorms will continue to move through the region tonight. Several locations have already received 1.5" to 2.0" of rain through the evening hours. Additional rainfall amounts up to 2.0" are possible overnight, which could result in areas of high water and localized flash flooding.
People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued May 22 at 8:30PM CDT until May 22 at 11:30PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
FFWLMK The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Central Breckinridge County in central Kentucky... * Until 1130 PM CDT. * At 830 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Hardinsburg, Webster, Irvington, Harned, Locust Hill, Garfield, Kingswood, Westview, Woodrow and Se Ree.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued May 22 at 10:05PM EDT until May 23 at 1:15AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
FFWLMK The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southeastern Henry County in central Kentucky... Northeastern Shelby County in central Kentucky... * Until 115 AM EDT. * At 1005 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Pleasureville, Bethlehem, Defoe, Slabtown, Elmburg, Franklinton, Lockport, North Pleasureville, Fallis and Orville.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 22 at 10:14PM EDT until May 23 at 1:15AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana, including the following counties, Clark, Floyd and Harrison and central Kentucky, including the following counties, Hardin, Jefferson and Meade.
WHEN Until 115 AM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1014 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Louisville, Jeffersonville, New Albany, Jeffersontown, St. Matthews, Shively, Lyndon, Middletown, Douglass Hills and Prospect. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 22 at 10:47PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 1047 PM EDT/947 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers 12 miles northeast of Leitchfield, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Elizabethtown, Radcliff, Vine Grove, Cecilia, Eastview, White Mills, Howe Valley, Hansbrough, Addington Field Airport, and White Mills Junction.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the National Weather Service.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 22 at 9:50PM CDT until May 23 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of central Kentucky, including the following counties, Breckinridge, Grayson, Hardin and Meade.
WHEN Until 100 AM CDT /200 AM EDT/.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 950 PM CDT /1050 PM EDT/, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 2 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Elizabethtown, Leitchfield, Radcliff, Vine Grove, Lebanon Junction, Clarkson, Concord, Howe Valley, Vertrees and Eastview. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued May 23 at 2:56AM EDT until May 23 at 4:45PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers... Eagle Creek near Glencoe.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Eagle Creek near Glencoe.
WHEN Until late this afternoon.
IMPACTS At 20.0 feet, McDaniel Street in Sanders and Route 36 near Sparta is closed due to high water, with Old Sparta Road near Sparta also closed due to backwater flooding. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 2:15 AM EDT Saturday the stage was 19.4 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 20.2 feet this morning. It will then fall below flood stage late this morning. - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/iln.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 23 at 3:53AM EDT until May 23 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Cabell, Jackson WV, Mason, Pleasants, Ritchie, Tyler, Wayne, Wirt and Wood.
WHEN Through this evening.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may also occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Isolated to scattered showers are expected this morning, with another round of increased activity this afternoon and evening in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain is expected within some thunderstorms, with additional rainfall totals of 1-2" possible today in some areas. Rivers, creeks and streams across portions of the area are running high given the recent rainfall, and could flood with more heavy rain. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 23 at 3:59AM EDT until May 23 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Floyd, Harrison IN, Jefferson IN, Scott IN and Washington IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Bourbon, Clark KY, Fayette, Franklin, Harrison KY, Henry, Jefferson, Jessamine, Nicholas, Oldham, Scott KY, Shelby, Trimble and Woodford.
WHEN Until noon EDT today.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - This area is more susceptible to flash flooding due to several recent rounds of heavy rainfall. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in a 3-hour period could result in additional flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 23 at 4:00AM EDT until May 23 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE A portion of east central Kentucky, including the following counties, Bath, Elliott, Fleming, Montgomery and Rowan.
WHEN Through this evening.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - An additional round or two of showers and thunderstorms is likely into this evening with the potential to drop another 1 to 2 inches of rain on places already soaked from storms of the past few days. Any additional heavy rain, or repeated training of storms at any particular location could lead to incidents of flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 23 at 4:48AM EDT until May 23 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE The following county, in northeast Kentucky, Lewis and the following counties, in Ohio, Fairfield, Hocking, Licking, Pike, Ross and Scioto.
WHEN Through this afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional heavier showers as well as some thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. This could bring locally heavy rainfall to areas that already have very wet soil. This could result in rapid runoff and flash flooding.
People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings.
Soaking Rain and Gusty Winds Sweep Across Kentucky
A widespread rain event will impact the Commonwealth on Saturday, bringing soaking showers to the central and western regions during the morning before shifting into Eastern Kentucky by the afternoon. All regions will experience breezy conditions with gusts between 30-40 mph.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in precipitation type (all rain) and timing, but moderate confidence in the magnitude of rainfall in Western KY due to the NAM's outlier QPF totals.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect rain to be most frequent during the early morning hours, with roughly 0.15 inches of accumulation. The sky will remain cloudy, but measurable rain will taper off by the afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Rain will move through Owensboro and Henderson during the morning, totaling near 0.20 inches. Expect a drying trend by late afternoon with persistent cloud cover.
Southwest Pennyrile
A wet start to the day is expected with rain totals reaching nearly 0.95 inches. While some models suggest higher amounts, plan for a steady, heavy rain through noon.
Barren River
Rain will be steady through the morning in Bowling Green, with accumulations around 0.40 inches. Gusty winds will reach 30 mph at times.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see a soaking morning with around 0.50 inches of rain expected. Most of the rain will fall before 2 PM, followed by damp and breezy conditions.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a blustery day with rain showers totaling 0.35 inches. Wind gusts will be a primary feature, reaching up to 35 mph throughout the day.
Lake Cumberland
Rain will pick up in intensity by the late morning, totaling around 0.45 inches. It will be a damp day on the water with gusts near 25 mph.
Northern Kentucky
Covington and the surrounding areas will see consistent rain through much of the day, with totals around 0.45 inches and gusts reaching 30 mph.
Inner Bluegrass
A very wet day is on tap with steady rain totaling 0.55 inches. Winds will be strong, with gusts up to 35 mph common throughout the afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect gray skies and rain showers totaling around 0.40 inches. Wind gusts will be significant, occasionally reaching 32 mph.
Northeast Kentucky
High winds are the main story early in the day, with gusts near 38 mph. Rain will arrive later in the afternoon, totaling around 0.35 inches.
Southeast Kentucky
Most of the day will be dry but very humid and windy. Rain showers arrive late in the afternoon and evening, with totals around 0.15 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' Scenario: If the NAM's aggressive moisture convergence verifies, localized rainfall totals in Southwest Kentucky could exceed 2.5 inches, leading to flash flooding, while wind gusts statewide reach 45 mph.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' Scenario: If dry air entrainment from the Appalachians is stronger than modeled, rain totals may struggle to reach 0.25 inches for most, with the system moving through as a mainly overcast, windy, but light-drizzle event.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Boundary Layer Momentum Battle
Disagreement exists regarding peak wind gusts; NAM and GFS suggest 35-40 mph gusts due to efficient mixing of the low-level jet, while the Euro remains much calmer at 20 mph.
Why NAM Wins
In pre-frontal and warm-sector setups with a 40-50kt low-level jet, the NAM and GFS typically resolve momentum transfer more accurately than the typically conservative Euro.
The Pennyrile Precipitation Peak
The NAM is an extreme outlier, predicting over 2.7 inches of rain for Hopkinsville, while the GFS, Euro, and GEM maintain a much drier solution under 0.5 inches.
Why BLEND Wins
While the NAM often resolves convective moisture surges better, its 2.7-inch bullseye is a classic mesoscale outlier not supported by the broader synoptic forcing seen in the global models. A weighted blend that respects the NAM's signal but favors the lower global consensus is the most prudent path.
Celestial Almanac
First Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.