Friday, May 22
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 2:20AM EDT until May 23 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Vinton and Washington, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Cabell, Jackson WV, Mason, Pleasants, Ritchie, Tyler, Wayne, Wirt and Wood.
WHEN From 8 AM EDT this morning through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may also occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rain will overspread the region this morning and persist through much of tonight. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are expected across the area, with locally higher amounts possible in locations impacted by thunderstorms. Areas that received locally heavy rain over the past couple of days will be most vulnerable to flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 2:21AM EDT until May 23 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE The following counties, in southeast Indiana, Ohio and Switzerland, the following counties, in Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson, and the following counties, in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Clermont, Highland, Hocking, Pike, Ross and Scioto.
WHEN From noon EDT today through late tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread across the area today and continue into tonight. One inch of rain is expected area wide with locally heavy rainfall possibly resulting in up to 3 inches in spots. This heavier rain could lead to flash flooding.
People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 3:00AM EDT until May 23 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following area, Jefferson IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Bourbon, Clark KY, Fayette, Franklin, Harrison KY, Henry, Nicholas, Scott KY and Trimble.
WHEN From 8 AM EDT this morning through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Repeating rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected later this morning through this evening, which will be capable of producing heavy rainfall on already saturated grounds. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 3:00AM EDT until May 23 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE A portion of east central Kentucky, including the following counties, Bath, Elliott, Fleming, Montgomery and Rowan.
WHEN From 8 AM EDT this morning through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely today and tonight with many locations, generally along and north of the I-64 corridor, already soaked from storms of the past few days. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain are expected for basin averages into Saturday morning with localized higher amounts of up to 3 inches possible where training of convective cells occur. This could lead to incidents of flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 8:50AM EDT until May 23 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Vinton and Washington, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Cabell, Jackson WV, Mason, Pleasants, Ritchie, Tyler, Wayne, Wirt and Wood.
WHEN Into Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rain will persist through today and much of tonight. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are expected across the area, with locally higher amounts possible in locations impacted by thunderstorms or just embedded heavier downpours. Areas that received locally heavy rain over the past several days will be most vulnerable to flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 9:24AM EDT until May 23 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE The following counties, in southeast Indiana, Ohio and Switzerland, the following counties, in Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson, and the following counties, in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Clermont, Highland, Hocking, Pike, Ross and Scioto.
WHEN Through late tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue into tonight. One inch of rain is expected area wide with locally heavy rainfall possibly resulting in up to 3 inches in spots. This heavier rain could lead to flash flooding.
People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 11:50AM EDT until May 23 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Floyd, Harrison IN, Scott IN and Washington IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Jefferson, Jessamine, Madison, Oldham, Shelby and Woodford.
WHEN Through late tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Incoming clusters of storms producing heavy downpours creates the potential for flooding in isolated areas later this evening. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 11:50AM EDT until May 23 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following area, Jefferson IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Bourbon, Clark KY, Fayette, Franklin, Harrison KY, Henry, Nicholas, Scott KY and Trimble.
WHEN Through late tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Incoming clusters of storms producing heavy downpours creates the potential for flooding in isolated areas later this evening. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 12:23PM EDT until May 23 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE The following counties, in southeast Indiana, Ohio and Switzerland, the following counties, in Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson, and the following counties, in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Clermont, Fairfield, Fayette, Franklin, Highland, Hocking, Licking, Pickaway, Pike, Ross and Scioto.
WHEN Through late tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue into tonight. One inch of rain is expected area wide with locally heavy rainfall possibly resulting in up to 3 inches in spots. This heavier rain could lead to flash flooding.
People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 12:34PM EDT until May 23 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Cabell, Jackson WV, Mason, Pleasants, Ritchie, Tyler, Wayne, Wirt and Wood.
WHEN Through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rain will persist through tonight. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are expected across the area, with locally higher amounts possible in locations impacted by thunderstorms or just Embedded heavier downpours. Areas that received locally heavy rain over the past several days will be most vulnerable to flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 12:54PM EDT until May 23 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE A portion of east central Kentucky, including the following counties, Bath, Elliott, Fleming, Montgomery and Rowan.
WHEN Through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely into tonight with many locations, generally along and north of the I-64 corridor, already soaked from storms of the past few days. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain are expected for basin averages into Saturday morning with localized higher amounts of up to 3 inches possible where training of convective cells occur. This could lead to incidents of flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 7:14PM EDT until May 23 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE A portion of east central Kentucky, including the following counties, Bath, Elliott, Fleming, Montgomery and Rowan.
WHEN Through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight with many locations, generally along and north of the I-64 corridor, already soaked from storms of the past few days. Any additional heavy rain could lead to incidents of flash flooding.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 22 at 7:57PM EDT until May 23 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Cabell, Jackson WV, Mason, Pleasants, Ritchie, Tyler, Wayne, Wirt and Wood.
WHEN Through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rain will persist through tonight. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are expected across the area, with locally higher amounts possible in locations impacted by thunderstorms or just Embedded heavier downpours. Areas that received locally heavy rain over the past several days will be most vulnerable to flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Soaking Rain and Gusty Winds Sweep Across Kentucky
A statewide stratiform rain event will impact the Commonwealth on Friday, driven by a deep moisture plume and moderate jet support. Rainfall totals will range from 0.5 to 1.8 inches, with the heaviest amounts expected in Northern and Eastern Kentucky where terrain and moisture convergence maximize efficiency. Temperatures will remain mild in the 60s and 70s.
Confidence Assessment
Strong agreement exists on the precipitation type (all rain) and the overall timing of the system. Confidence is slightly tempered by model variance in localized rainfall bullseyes in the eastern terrain and the exact magnitude of wind gusts.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Rain will be most persistent during the morning and early afternoon. Expect about three-quarters of an inch of rain with temperatures holding in the upper 60s.
Northwest Pennyrile
Heavy rain is likely during the middle of the day in Owensboro. Total rainfall will approach 1.2 inches, making for a very damp afternoon.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect a breezy day with wind gusts reaching 30 mph. Rain showers will be steadiest during the afternoon, totaling around 0.8 inches.
Barren River
The Bowling Green area will be quite warm today, reaching the low 70s. Wind gusts over 30 mph will accompany off-and-on rain showers.
Louisville Metro
Rain will be light this morning but will become steady and heavy at times this afternoon. Expect wet roads for the drive home with about an inch of total rain.
Lincoln Trail
A wet and windy day is in store with gusts over 30 mph. Steady rain throughout the day will result in about 1.1 inches of accumulation.
Lake Cumberland
Prepare for a soggy day with rain crossing the 1-inch mark. The heaviest rain is expected late in the evening with occasional gusts to 25 mph.
Northern Kentucky
Rain will be persistent from mid-morning through the evening. Over an inch of rain is likely, making for a very wet day across the region.
Inner Bluegrass
Keep the umbrella handy as over an inch of rain is expected. Wind gusts will reach 30 mph at times, especially during the afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
The Richmond and Berea areas should prepare for significant rain, with totals likely reaching 1.5 inches. Localized ponding on roads is possible.
Northeast Kentucky
Northeast Kentucky will likely see the highest rain totals in the state, potentially exceeding 1.6 inches. This could lead to rising water in low-lying areas.
Southeast Kentucky
Rain will be steady today, totaling over an inch. Winds will pick up this evening with some gusts reaching the upper 20s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If orographic enhancement in the Eastern Coalfields and the Muldraugh Escarpment maximizes and the vorticity lobe slows, localized rain totals could exceed 2.5 inches, leading to minor flash flooding and rapid rises in small creeks.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If a dry slot develops or the primary moisture axis shifts further north into Ohio, rainfall totals may struggle to reach 0.5 inches for much of Central and Western Kentucky, resulting in a cloudy but less impactful day.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Momentum Transfer Conflict
The GFS and NAM forecast frequent wind gusts between 28 and 33 mph throughout the afternoon, while the Euro and GEM suggest a much calmer surface environment.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS typically handles momentum transfer within the boundary layer better in moist, neutral profiles. Given the 850mb jet strength shown across all models, the higher gust potential is physically more plausible than the near-calm Euro solution.
The Eastern Rainfall Surge
A significant disagreement exists regarding rainfall totals in Northeast Kentucky. The GEM and NAM suggest a heavy bullseye exceeding 2 inches due to orographic lift and moisture convergence, while the GFS and Euro maintain a more conservative 1-inch threshold.
Why BLEND Wins
While the GEM's 2.3-inch total appears to be an outlier, the NAM's high-resolution support for terrain-induced lift suggests that GFS/Euro are likely under-forecasting the impact of the Appalachian foothills. A weighted blend favoring the higher totals is the most prudent path.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.