Thursday, May 21
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 21 at 10:14AM CDT until May 21 at 1:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, Edmonson and Warren.
WHEN Until 115 PM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1014 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rainfall. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Bowling Green, Plum Springs, Mount Victor, Crestmoor, Memphis Junction, Smiths Grove, Park City, Oakland, Sunnyside and Loving. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you can do so safely and have them relay your report to the National Weather Service in Louisville.
Significant Rain Event to Impact Central & Southern Kentucky
A slow-moving atmospheric disturbance will track across the Ohio Valley on May 21, 2026, bringing widespread rain to the Commonwealth. While Northern Kentucky remains on the drier edge of the system, a corridor of heavy rainfall is expected from the Barren River area through the Bluegrass Core. Flooding concerns are elevated in areas seeing persistent convective training.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in a rainy day for Southern and Central KY, but significant uncertainty remains regarding the northern extent of the rain and the exact location of the heaviest mesoscale bands.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Cloudy skies will dominate, but most of the rain will stay to the east. Highs will reach the low 70s.
Northwest Pennyrile
A few light showers are possible, but the day will be characterized by heavy cloud cover and evening gusts.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect a few rounds of rain during the afternoon. Temperatures will be very mild, reaching 72 degrees.
Barren River
Periods of heavy rain are expected throughout the day. Rainfall totals around 1.5 inches are likely.
Louisville Metro
The morning may start dry, but light rain will move in by the evening commute with gusts to 25 mph.
Lincoln Trail
Keep the umbrella handy for off-and-on light rain throughout the day. Totals around 0.25 inches expected.
Lake Cumberland
Consistent rain is expected from morning through afternoon. Rainfall totals around 0.8 inches are likely.
Northern Kentucky
It will be a cool and windy day. While a morning shower is possible, most areas will stay dry under gray skies.
Inner Bluegrass
Heavy rain is likely, especially during the morning commute. Expect rainfall totals around 1.8 inches, with higher amounts possible.
Bluegrass Foothills
Steady rain will continue throughout the day. Totals around 0.75 inches will make for very soggy fields.
Northeast Kentucky
Persistent rain and cool temperatures will keep the valleys damp all day. Totals near 0.5 inches expected.
Southeast Kentucky
Steady rain will fall across the mountains, especially in the afternoon. Totals around 0.6 inches expected.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the NAM's high-resolution mesoscale banding verifies, a narrow corridor in Central Kentucky could see localized totals exceeding 5 inches, leading to a significant flash flooding emergency.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If dry air entrainment from the high pressure over the Great Lakes is stronger, the rain shield will be suppressed southward, leaving the Bluegrass and Louisville largely dry with totals under 0.25 inches.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Lexington Deluge Dispute
A massive discrepancy exists regarding rainfall magnitude in Central Kentucky. The NAM is forecasting an extreme 5.7 inch bullseye due to training convective bands, while the GFS/Euro show a much lighter 0.05-0.50 inch range.
Why BLEND Wins
The NAM's 5.7 inch total is likely an over-amplified mesoscale outlier, but the GFS is known for 'smearing' and underestimating convective rain rates. A blend favoring the GEM/NAM placement but with tempered totals is the most realistic path.
The Northern Dry Slot
Models disagree on how far north the measurable precipitation shield will reach. The GFS/NAM keep Northern KY dry, while the Euro/GEM bring light rain across the Ohio River.
Why GFS Wins
High pressure over the Great Lakes is providing a robust source of dry air; GFS typically handles the erosion of the northern edge of precip shields more accurately in these setups.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.