Wednesday, May 20
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 19 at 11:05AM EDT until May 20 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison IN, Jefferson IN, Orange, Perry, Scott IN and Washington IN and north central Kentucky, including the following area, Trimble.
WHEN From 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Heavy rainfall from additional storms may cause flooding this evening with heavy downpours. Some of the same areas from last night's storms will be at risk of flooding again tonight. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 19 at 11:35AM CDT until May 20 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, including the following areas, Alexander, Gallatin, Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope, Pulaski, Saline, Union, White and Williamson, southwest Indiana, including the following areas, Gibson, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh and Warrick, and western Kentucky, including the following areas, Henderson and Union KY.
WHEN Through Wednesday afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional heavy rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3 inches, perhaps localized higher are possible. This may fall on areas that already received over 1.5" over the past 24 hours. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 19 at 8:48PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
At 847 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Norwood, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail, and very heavy rain.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to vegetation. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible. Locations impacted include... Cincinnati, Hamilton, Fairfield, Covington, Mason, Lebanon, Norwood, Forest Park, Fort Thomas, Newport, Sharonville, Monroe, Blue Ash, Loveland, Springdale, Reading, Montgomery, North College Hill, Madeira, and Wyoming. This includes the following Interstates... I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 33. I-74 in Ohio between mile markers 14 and 19. I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 189 and 191. I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 30. If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building. Motorists should slow down and use extra caution. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for southwestern Ohio. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 20 at 12:02AM CDT until May 20 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, including the following areas, Gallatin and Hardin, southwest Indiana, including the following areas, Gibson, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh and Warrick, and western Kentucky, including the following areas, Henderson and Union KY.
WHEN Through this afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional heavy rainfall amounts of 1.0 to 2.0 inches, perhaps localized higher are possible. This may fall on areas that already received over 1.5" over the past 24 hours.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 20 at 1:52AM CDT until May 20 at 6:45AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of southwest Indiana, including the following counties, Vanderburgh and Warrick and western Kentucky, including the following county, Henderson.
WHEN Until 645 AM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 151 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Evansville, Henderson, Newburgh, Chandler, Melody Hill, Kasson and Hebbardsville.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 20 at 5:01AM EDT until May 20 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison IN, Jefferson IN, Orange, Perry, Scott IN and Washington IN and north central Kentucky, including the following area, Trimble.
WHEN Until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Soggy Wednesday: Widespread Rain and Mild Temps for KY
A progressive shortwave trough will traverse the Commonwealth on Wednesday, bringing widespread stratiform rain to all regions. Precipitation will overspread the state from west to east, accompanied by a dampening diurnal temperature curve and breezy conditions.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in rain occurrence and precipitation type (liquid); moderate confidence in exact rainfall totals due to model disagreement on mesoscale banding and frontal timing.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect around 0.8 inches of rain to fall mostly during the morning and midday hours. Conditions will remain damp and cloudy through the evening.
Northwest Pennyrile
Showers will persist throughout the day with rainfall totals around 0.5 inches. It will be a grey, breezy afternoon along the Ohio River.
Southwest Pennyrile
A soggy day is expected with accumulations around 0.9 inches. Rain will be most consistent during the morning hours.
Barren River
Morning clouds will give way to afternoon rain with totals reaching around 0.5 inches. Breezy conditions will develop by sunset.
Louisville Metro
Louisville can expect about 0.7 inches of rain through the day. The wettest window will be from lunch through the evening commute.
Lincoln Trail
Rain will be persistent throughout the afternoon with totals around 0.6 inches. Expect cloudy and damp conditions to last into the night.
Lake Cumberland
Temperatures will reach the upper 70s before rain moves in during the evening. Expect around 0.5 inches of total rainfall.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a damp day with highs only in the mid-60s. Rainfall totals of around 0.6 inches are expected, accompanied by breezy winds.
Inner Bluegrass
Rain will arrive by early afternoon, with totals around 0.7 inches. It will be a grey and humid end to the day.
Bluegrass Foothills
A warm day with highs near 77 degrees. Rain will move in during the late afternoon, with around 0.5 inches expected by nightfall.
Northeast Kentucky
Rainfall totals could reach 0.8 inches as the main weather system passes through this evening. Watch for standing water on roads late today.
Southeast Kentucky
A warm afternoon with highs in the 80s. Expect light rain showers to arrive only after sunset, with totals around 0.2 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
Localized training of showers along a slowing frontal boundary leads to 1.5+ inches of rain in the Bluegrass and Northeast, causing nuisance flooding in poor drainage areas.
The 'Bust' Scenario
A faster-moving mid-level dry slot cuts off precipitation early in the afternoon, leaving many regions with less than 0.25 inches and clearing skies by sunset.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Northeast QPF Bullseye
NAM guidance predicts a localized rainfall maximum of over 1.3 inches in Northeast Kentucky due to enhanced moisture convergence, whereas Global models (GFS/Euro) suggest a broader, lighter distribution.
Why BLEND Wins
While the NAM often over-forecasts localized bullseyes, the combination of terrain and strong vorticity suggests that rainfall will be heavier in the northeast than the global mean suggests.
The Ashland Heat Surge
The GFS is an aggressive outlier, forecasting temperatures reaching 90°F in Northeast KY ahead of the rain, while the NAM, Euro, and GEM keep highs in the upper 70s to low 80s due to earlier cloud cover.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro and GEM represent a more realistic thermal recovery given the proximity of the arriving cloud shield and moisture surge, which will limit solar insolation.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.