Tuesday, May 19
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 18 at 9:58PM EDT until May 19 at 1:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana, including the following counties, Clark, Floyd and Harrison and central Kentucky, including the following county, Meade.
WHEN Until 100 AM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. Overflowing poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 958 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. - Additional rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Jeffersonville, New Albany, Corydon, Brandenburg, Clarksville, Charlestown, Sellersburg, Galena, Palmyra and Borden. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you can do so safely and have them relay your report to the National Weather Service in Louisville.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued May 18 at 10:10PM EDT until May 19 at 1:15AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana, including the following counties, Clark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Orange, Perry, Scott and Washington and central Kentucky, including the following counties, Breckinridge and Meade.
WHEN Until 115 AM EDT /1215 AM CDT/.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1010 PM EDT /910 PM CDT/, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Jasper, Salem, Paoli, English, Carefree Town, Mount Pleasant, Huntingburg, Ferdinand, Orleans and French Lick. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 19 at 11:05AM EDT until May 20 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison IN, Jefferson IN, Orange, Perry, Scott IN and Washington IN and north central Kentucky, including the following area, Trimble.
WHEN From 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Heavy rainfall from additional storms may cause flooding this evening with heavy downpours. Some of the same areas from last night's storms will be at risk of flooding again tonight. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued May 19 at 11:35AM CDT until May 20 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, including the following areas, Alexander, Gallatin, Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope, Pulaski, Saline, Union, White and Williamson, southwest Indiana, including the following areas, Gibson, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh and Warrick, and western Kentucky, including the following areas, Henderson and Union KY.
WHEN Through Wednesday afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional heavy rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3 inches, perhaps localized higher are possible. This may fall on areas that already received over 1.5" over the past 24 hours. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Morning Showers Fade into Steamy Afternoon; Heavy Rain West
A split weather day is expected across Kentucky, featuring a morning wave of showers followed by a hot, humid afternoon. A second, more significant surge of moisture will target the Ohio River Valley in Western Kentucky late Tuesday evening, bringing localized heavy rainfall.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in temperatures reaching summer-like levels across the state. Lower confidence in the exact totals of the evening rainfall wave in the west due to model variance in shortwave strength.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a few showers early in the morning, followed by a hot and humid afternoon with highs near 89. A steadier area of rain will move in after sunset.
Northwest Pennyrile
A very hot and muggy afternoon will give way to potentially heavy rain tonight. Localized flooding near the Ohio River is possible as rainfall totals could reach 1.5 inches.
Southwest Pennyrile
Light rain is possible before sunrise. The rest of the day will be sunny, breezy, and quite hot with highs in the upper 80s.
Barren River
A stray morning shower is possible, otherwise expect a windy and very warm day. Highs will approach 90 degrees.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see off-and-on light showers throughout the day. It will be very warm and muggy with highs in the upper 80s.
Lincoln Trail
A few light morning showers will give way to a mostly sunny and hot afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 80s.
Lake Cumberland
A beautiful but humid day. Skies will be partly cloudy with no rain expected. Highs in the mid-80s.
Northern Kentucky
A dry and warm day will be followed by rain showers moving in after 6:00 PM. Highs will reach 86 degrees.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect some rain showers during the morning commute. The afternoon will turn breezy and very warm.
Bluegrass Foothills
A dry and very warm day across the foothills. Expect breezy conditions with highs in the mid-80s.
Northeast Kentucky
Mostly sunny and quite hot for Ashland and Morehead. Highs will climb into the upper 80s.
Southeast Kentucky
A beautiful and warm day in the mountains. Humidity will be high, but no rain is expected.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The NAM's high-resolution solution verifies, where frontogenetical forcing anchors a heavy rain band over the Northwest Pennyrile, leading to localized rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches and minor urban flooding.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Shortwave energy remains disorganized as per the GEM/GFS solutions, resulting in the evening rain wave transitioning into scattered, light showers and virga, with most of the state remaining dry and hot.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Western Kentucky Rainfall Surge
A significant disagreement exists regarding the intensity of the evening rain wave. The NAM predicts a robust, heavy rain event (2"+) driven by sharp frontogenesis, while the GFS and GEM suggest a much weaker, disorganized line of showers (<0.5").
Why NAM Wins
The NAM's superior resolution of shallow low-level boundaries and the stalled front along the Ohio River better captures the potential for moisture convergence in high-PWAT environments within 24-36 hours.
The Southeastern Dry Slot
The ECMWF 'smears' light precipitation into Southeastern Kentucky, while the GFS and GEM maintain a strong mid-level cap and subsidence, keeping the region entirely dry.
Why GEM Wins
GEM's handling of the departing surface high and the resulting subsidence across the Appalachian foothills is more consistent with the lack of dynamic lifting in that region.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.