Monday, May 18
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Lake Wind Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory issued May 18 at 12:51AM CDT until May 18 at 4:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph expected.
WHERE Lake Wappapello in Missouri, Crab Orchard and Rend Lake in Illinois and Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley in Kentucky.
WHEN From 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon.
IMPACTS Strong winds and rough waves on large area lakes may create hazardous conditions for small craft.
Lake Wind Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory issued May 18 at 4:47AM CDT until May 18 at 4:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph expected.
WHERE Lake Wappapello in Missouri, Crab Orchard and Rend Lake in Illinois, and Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley in Kentucky.
WHEN From 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon.
IMPACTS Strong winds and rough waves on large area lakes may create hazardous conditions for small craft.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 18 at 6:52PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 652 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles east of Batesville to near Valley Station. Movement was east at 55 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Madison, La Grange, Scottsburg, New Castle, Bedford, Pendleton, Vienna, Charlestown, Sellersburg, and Austin.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 18 at 6:57PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
At 656 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 9 miles northwest of Madison to 10 miles south of Scottsburg, moving east at 50 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or death. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible. Locations impacted include... Carrollton, Vevay, Pleasant, French, Fairview, Ghent, Prestonville, Braytown, Center Square, Aberdeen, Langstaff, Locust, Avonburg, Moorefield, Mount Sterling, Jacksonville, Pate, Interstate 71 at Mile Marker 40, Interstate 71 at State Route 227, and Bear Branch. This includes I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 39 and 48. If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building. Motorists should slow down and use extra caution. When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning threatens. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 18 at 5:59PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 559 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Shawneetown, moving northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Mount Vernon, Shawneetown, Uniontown, Ridgway, Old Shawneetown, and Junction.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 18 at 6:13PM CDT until May 18 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SVRPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... East central Gallatin County in southern Illinois... Southwestern Vanderburgh County in southwestern Indiana... Southern Posey County in southwestern Indiana... Western Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky... Central Union County in northwestern Kentucky... * Until 700 PM CDT. * At 612 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Uniontown, or 8 miles east of Shawneetown, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Henderson, Morganfield, Breckinridge Center, Uniontown, Corydon, Waverly, and Old Shawneetown. This includes the following highways... Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 142 and 148. Audubon Parkway near Mile Marker 1.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 18 at 7:20PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 720 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles south of Dillsboro to near Bedford to 8 miles north of New Albany. Movement was east at 40 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Jeffersonville, New Albany, Madison, La Grange, Prospect, Worthington Hills, Coldstream, New Castle, Green Spring, and Bedford.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Summer Sizzle: Record Heat Possible as Most Regions Stay Dry
A dominant high-pressure ridge centered over the Southeast U.S. will drive unseasonably hot and dry conditions across the majority of Kentucky this Monday. While global models suggest scattered light rain, high confidence remains in a drier solution for most of the state due to significant mid-level dry air. The far western Purchase area remains the only location with a credible threat for light, nuisance-level showers.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is exceptionally high regarding the unseasonable heat, with all models showing mid-80s to low 90s. However, confidence is moderate regarding the 'measurable' nature of precipitation, as the high PoP/low QPF signature suggests many areas may see clouds and virga but no actual rain on the ground.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Cloud cover will increase throughout the morning as a weak disturbance approaches from the west. Expect a few light showers or sprinkles, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours, with rainfall amounts staying under a tenth of an inch.
Northwest Pennyrile
A very warm day with plenty of afternoon sun. Winds will be gusty at times, especially near the Ohio River.
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s will make it feel like mid-summer.
Barren River
Sunshine will be abundant as temperatures reach near 90 degrees. Afternoon winds may gust to 30 mph.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will be one of the hottest spots in the state, with temperatures approaching the 90-degree mark under mostly sunny skies.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a bright, sunny day with temperatures well into the 80s and a persistent afternoon breeze.
Lake Cumberland
Warm, bright, and calm conditions are expected near the lake. Highs will hover in the upper 80s.
Northern Kentucky
While some models suggest a shower, dry air should win out, leaving the region hot and sunny for most of the day.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington and the surrounding area will see full sunshine and summer-like heat. Hold on to your hat in the afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
A very warm and dry day is in store. Clouds will be sparse, with temperatures peaking in the high 80s.
Northeast Kentucky
After a comfortable start, temperatures will soar quickly, potentially reaching the low 90s by the afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
Morning fog will give way to a hot, sunny afternoon in Hazard and Pikeville.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the moisture plume associated with the Great Lakes shortwave is deeper than expected, scattered light showers could transition from virga to measurable rain along the I-64 corridor and Northern Kentucky, briefly mitigating the heat.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the ridge centers itself further north, the capping inversion will be unbreakable, and full solar insolation will push several cities into the mid-90s, potentially breaking daily records across the Bluegrass and Northeast Kentucky.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Phantom Rain Feud
The GFS and Euro are signaling high probabilities (80%) of light precipitation across the North and West, while the NAM and GEM remain virtually dry. This is a classic case of 'Phantom Precip' where global models resolve moisture but fail to account for the evaporation of rain through a massive 30-degree dew point depression at the surface.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM soundings correctly identify a deep dry-slot between 850mb and 500mb. In this setup, any precipitation generated aloft will likely evaporate as virga before reaching the ground, making the dry NAM/GEM solution more physically plausible.
The Valley Heat Duel
Models disagree on the magnitude of the afternoon peak in the Northeast. GFS is aggressive with 93°F, while NAM keeps the region in the high 80s.
Why BLEND Wins
While GFS handles thickness values well, it often over-warms under-saturated valleys. A blend of the high-res NAM and the GFS ensures we account for both solar insolation and localized valley cooling.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.